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Global biomass availability in light of policy development – iLUC Focus

Global biomass availability in light of policy development – iLUC Focus. Petr Havlík, Michael Obersteiner, Erwin Schmid, Uwe A. Schneider AND MANY OTHER COLLABORATORS International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Forestry Program, Austria

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Global biomass availability in light of policy development – iLUC Focus

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  1. Global biomass availability in light of policy development – iLUC Focus Petr Havlík, Michael Obersteiner, Erwin Schmid, Uwe A. Schneider AND MANY OTHER COLLABORATORS International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Forestry Program, Austria University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU), Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Austria University of Hamburg, Sustainability and Global Change (FNU), Germany BECOTEPS Workshops – Non Food Chains, Brussels, 6-8 October 2009

  2. What I will NOT talk about!! • www.cc-tame.eu – European Policy • Value of R&D policy portfolios • Impact of stable expectations on investment (Climate Policy) • Flexibility (Fuel Switching,polyproduction) • Portfolio • Economies of Scale (BE&CCS vs. PolyPr)

  3. …Biomass: The Serving Butler for Multiple Masters Rural Development Climate Protection Energy Security

  4. Global Energy Portfolio – 2DG Target Source: Obersteiner et al. forthcoming

  5. Land is Finite Biomass Availability

  6. II. Model: GLOBIOM Global Biomass Optimization Model Coverage: the Earth, Ag-For-Biomass Basic resolution: 28 regions

  7. II. Model presentation: Supply chains Unmanaged Forest Forest products: Sawnwood Woodpulp Wood Processing Energy products: Ethanol (1st gen.) Biodiesel (1st gen.) Ethanol (2nd gen) BTL Heat Power Gas Fuel wood Managed Forest Bioenergy Processing Short Rotation Tree Plantations Cropland Grassland Crops: Barley Corn Cotton … Livestock Feeding Other Natural Vegetation Livestock: Animal Calories

  8. BIOPHYSICAL INPUT DATA Simulation Units (SimU) = HRU & PX30 & Country zone Source: Skalský et al. (2007)

  9. II. Model presentation: Cropland - EPIC Processes • Weather • Hydrology • Erosion • Carbon sequestration • Crop growth • Crop rotations • Fertilization • Tillage • Irrigation • Drainage • Pesticide • Grazing • Manure Major outputs: Crop yields, Environmental effects (e.g. soil carbon, ) 40 crops(>85% of harvested area) 4 management systems:High input, Low input, Irrigated, Subsistence

  10. II. Model presentation: EPIC - Yields

  11. II. Model presentation: Forests – G4M Step 2: Forest growth functions estimated from yield tables Major outputs: Mean annual increment Tree size Sawn wood suitability Harvesting cost

  12. II. Model presentation: Forest plantations Productivity distribution

  13. Woody Bioenergy Supply for 2000-2100 B1(Price < 6$/GJ) Source: Rokitianskii et al. 2006

  14. III. Model application for iLUC Simulation horizon: 2000–2020 Main drivers: Population (IIASA SRES projections) Diets (FAO, 2006) Bio-energy demand (POLES team, JRC Seville, and WEO, 2008) (GDP, technological change,…) Scenarios 1st dimension: +/- 100 biofuel mandates WEO 2020 reference 2nd dimension:POLICIES 1. Global scale of mandates – EU27 x World 2. Trade with biofuels – YES x NO 3. Deforestation allowed – YES x NO

  15. III. Model application: Scenarios setting

  16. Deforestation due to biofuels expansion 30 20 World biofuel targets, no trade World biofuel targets, with trade EU biofuel targets, no trade EU biofuel targets, with trade 10 0 Mha, based on WEO 2020 targets, If not constrained (e.g. by REDD) important deforestation occurs

  17. Deforestation due to EU biofuel expansion 6 6 4 4 2 2 Africa Africa South Asia South Asia Pacific Asia Pacific Asia South America South America 0 0 In Mha, EU mandates in 2020 put pressure on deforestation elsewhere even without trade – iLUC! Without trade With trade

  18. World biofuels expansion and crop prices 1.20 1.15 With trade, allowing deforestation With trade, preventing deforestation Without trade, allowing deforestation Without trade, preventing deforestation 1.10 1.05 1.00 Crop price index, avoiding deforestation further increases the effect of biofuels on crop prices

  19. Avoiding deforestation further increases the effect of biofuels on crop prices.

  20. Crop Price Index ETHANOL BTL Source: Havlik et al. 2008

  21. Crop management adjustments necessary to avoid higher price increases.

  22. Biofuel mandates lead to increases of Soil N2O emissions. REDD policies may slow them down.

  23. Biofuel policy benefitsTime is crucial!!!!

  24. V. Conclusions iLUC - Biofuel expansion generates important iLUC GHG emissions. - iLUC depends more on the possibility to source biofuels efficiently on international markets than on the global scale of production, ALTHOUGH for the larger scale iLUC per energy unit increases. - Policies (like REDD) aiming at reducing the negative (i)LUC effects will fortify the pressure on crop prices, UNLESS management systems adapted (feasible?) - Unit iLUC effects contingent on the global multiple policy setting to be taken into account if iLUC factors should be calculated

  25. …Biomass: The Serving Butler for Multiple Masters Rural Development Climate Protection • R&D now! • Diffuse later! • Trade & LCA! • Stable Expectations Energy Security

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