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Demography of Aging. Chapter 2. Demography. The statistical study of human populations especially with reference to: Size & Density distribution Vital statistics (epidemiology: births, deaths, diseases). Survival Curves for U.S. Population, 1900 to 2002. 100. 2002. 1950. 80. 1900.

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demography
Demography

The statistical study

of

human populations

especially with reference to:

Size

&

Density distribution

Vital statistics (epidemiology: births, deaths, diseases)

slide3
Survival Curves for U.S. Population, 1900 to 2002

100

2002

1950

80

1900

60

Percent Surviving

40

20

0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Age

Source: Arias E. United States Life Tables, 2002. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol. 53, no. 6.  Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics, 2004. 

probability of 50 year old living to 90 1900 to 2002
Probability of 50 year old living to 90, 1900 to 2002

30

26.6

25

20

15.2

Men

15

Percent

Women

9.6

10

5.0

3.8

5

2.7

0

1900

1950

2002

Source: Computed from U.S. life tables in: Arias E. United States life tables, 2002. National vital statistics reports; vol. 53, no. 6. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for health Statistics, 2004.

slide6
Increase in Average Life Expectancy in Years

in Some Countries, 1950-1995, Total (MF)

Developed Countries Developing Countries

Japan 15 China 30

Italy 11 Turkey 24

France 10 India 22

United Kingdom 7 Egypt 19

USA 7 Kenya 18

Sweden 6.1 Brazil 15

Argentina 9

slide7
Life expectancy and infant mortality throughout human history

Life expectancyInfant mortality rateat birth (years)(per 1000 live births)

Prehistoric 20-35200-300

Sweden, 1750s 37 210

India, 1880s 25230

U. S., 1900 48133

France, 1950 6652

Japan, 1996 804

slide12
Annual number of females reaching 100 years in the North European countries

Number of centenarians per million inhabitants in Denmark (1800-1994)

centenarians
Centenarians:

USA 1990: Harvard University started New England Centenarian Study (JAMA 288:18 p. 2247, 2002).

Data from this study refute the idea that aging represents an inexorable march…characterized by a steady decline.

Rather, centenarians are generally in very good health.

They are either:

  • Escapers “People who have escaped any disease”
  • Late onset of disease, 85+
  • Early onset of disease which was overcome

JAPAN 2004: Reports identify

  • SSC (Semi-Super Centenarians), age 105+ years.
  • SC (Super Centenarians), 110+ years

In both groups, alterations in the gene coding for I / IGF-1 receptor

slide14
Dr. John Wilmoth

Christian Mortensen

1882-1998

slide16
Average Lifespan at Birth for Females, 1990-1995 and Lifespan Differential in Years

Developed Countries F-M

Japan 82 6

Sweden 81 6

Italy 80 6

France 81 8

United Kingdom 77 5

USA 80 7

USSR (previous) 75 10

Developing Countries

Argentina 75 7

China 73 3

Turkey 70 5

Brazil 69 6

Egypt 63 2

India 61 1

Kenya 61 4

probable causes for longevity in favor of women
Probable causes for longevity in favor of women:
  • Genetic (XX vs. XY) or Environmental (geography, country, income)
  • Other causes:

Lesser life stress in females

Less smoking

Protective action of estrogens?

Lesser accumulation of mDNA deletions/mutations with better protection against oxidative damage

Others?

Implication for prevention and treatment

slide18
Older women whose parents survived past age 90 are generally healthier than women whose parents did not survive as long. These women …
      • overall death rates
      • die of cardiovascular disease
      • report a diagnosis of diabetes
      • mental and mobility limitaions
      • risk of hip fracture and non-spine fractures*
      • have higher self-rated quality of life
      • have faster walking speed and better measures of grip strength
      • *reduced fracture risk seen for maternal, but not paternal survival past age 90
  • Data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF), Peggy Cawthon
slide19
g

g

n

n

i

i

v

v

i

i

v

v

r

r

Father

Father

Father

All Cardiovascular Death

Ischemic Heart Disease Death

Stroke Death

u

u

100

100

S

S

95

95

%

90

90

HR=0.80, p=0.166

HR=0.60, p=0.018

g

g

85

85

Less than 90

Less than 90

n

n

At least 90

At least 90

i

80

80

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

v

Follow-up time (years)

i

v

r

Mother

Stroke Death

u

100

100

S

95

95

%

90

90

HR=0.78, p=0.001

HR=0.73, p=0.010

HR=0.79, p=0.093

85

85

Less than 90

At least 90

At least 90

80

80

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

8

10

12

14

16

Follow-up time (years)

Follow-up time (years)

Survival of Female Offspring (65+ years) from

Cardiovascular Disease Death based on

Maternal Longevity

%

Survival

Mother died before age 90

Mother survived past age 90

Follow-up time from study entry (years)

Women whose mothers survived past age 90 had an approximately 20% lower risk of cardiovascular disease death compared to women whose mothers did not live as long

Data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF), Peggy Cawthon

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