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Met Brief, 20130123am. Moist soundings today, high instability, good chance of tropical showers. Warmer temps at CPT -- -83 Strong front along large scale amplifying wave to the north, convection developing, no lightning yet.

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met brief 20130123am

Met Brief, 20130123am

Moist soundings today, high instability, good chance of tropical showers. Warmer temps at CPT -- -83

Strong front along large scale amplifying wave to the north, convection developing, no lightning yet.

Tomorrow looks good except for possible tail winds on takeoff, and T-storms near landing time.

Coldest temps at tropical tropopause warming slightly and moving east. Amplifying wave to north leading to colder, higher trop late in flight tomorrow.

Front, shear line on top of us Saturday, rainy in the AM, strengthening winds on landing. Strong northeasterlies Sunday.

slide2

Moist sounding last night, more unstable

than typical this time of year.

Tropical showers today in unstable air.

Minimum temperatures are -84 last night,

significantly warmer than in past few days.

This morning even more unstable,

though not quite as moist at

midlevels. CPT temperatures

continue some warming.

slide3

Can see small showers to the SE moving north. Tropical system is now near 20N and

interacting with developing wave and associated front to the northwest. Can see convection

developing along front, but no lightning as yet.

slide4

Near TO. As front/shear line moves closer (and the low), winds shift to SW. Tail winds

Near the 10 knot limit. Showers possible

slide5

Front advances, putting us closer to low center and reducing mean winds from the SW

somewhat. NWS calling for slight chance of thunder. This needs to be watched, call GH

back early maybe.

slide6

Both GFS and NCAR WRF

show low developing

west of Guam, and line

of showers propagating

eastward.

If this develops, it will

hold off on frontal

movement, but give us

a band of showers just

to the west. Need to

watch this.

slide7

Frontal passage Saturday, significant rain and gusty winds. We are at the

edge of the strong northeasterlies at 4 PM on Saturday. Looks like rain on TO, and

strong northeasterlies on landing.

slide10

Coldest temperatures at 53kft have

retreated to the SE, but developing

trough is producing colder temperatures

to the NW (below). This is a dynamic

situation developing during the flight.

Best viewed with Leslie’s animation.

slide12

Input includes forecast and satellite/rain based convection coupled with forward

trajectories. Expect to see convectively lofted air near tropopause that is fairly

recent and has gone around the anticyclone.

slide13

Air we are sampling along northward trek is from convection near the equator. Air from

yesterday’s system wil be over HI.

slide15

Note eastward propagtion of temperatures since Jan 20. At least at the equator, no

warming seen, but warming at our longitudes is apparent.

longer range convective forecast
Longer range convective forecast

CPC MJO forecast – based

on EOF analyses of 200mb

zonal wind, 850mb zonal

wind, and outgoing longwave

radiation (satellite imagery).

Inside circle indicates weak

MJO pattern. Typical strong

MJO is a large scale convective

pattern propagating westward

from the Indian Ocean into

the Central Pacific at around

2-3 m/s.

We have had a weak MJO

most of the season. MJO

is strengthening, but not

propagating

met brief 20130123am1

Met Brief, 20130123am

Moist soundings today, high instability, good chance of tropical showers. Warmer temps at CPT -- -83

Strong front along large scale amplifying wave to the north, convection developing, no lightning yet.

CPT structure will be dynamic during the flight, with cold temps at 57kft developing at our location during the flight.

Showers possible tomorrow, not as moist at upper levels, winds SW close to limits.

Saturday front is on top of us, rain in the morning, possible strong Neasterlies by landing

Sunday will have strong northeasterlies, but less rain

Expect TTL clouds, most strongly in SE section of flight

Expect recently lofted air (a few days) on northern trek.

Warming at our longitudes at CPT expected in next few days.

Convection in next few weeks expected to be anomalously strong in Western Pac/Maritime continent.