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Considering Equity in Climate Prediction Applications: Implications for Development and Evaluation of Decision Support Tools. NOAA CLIMAS. NASA HyDIS Raytheon Synergy. NASA EOS. NOAA GAPP. NSF SAHRA. 1 Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona

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slide1
Considering Equity in Climate Prediction Applications: Implications for Development and Evaluation of Decision Support Tools

NOAA CLIMAS

NASA HyDIS

Raytheon Synergy

NASA EOS

NOAA GAPP

NSF SAHRA

1Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona

2Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California-Irvine

Holly Hartmann1 and Soroosh Sorooshian2

calls for societally relevant research and products
Calls for Societally Relevant Research and Products
  • Information is appropriate to the knowledge and concerns of the recipient.
  • Ensure that.. modeling improvements and data products are useful to the water resources management community.
  • Develop a strategy for… how these could be made more useful for [user] purposes.
  • Need studies of the benefits and costs of [hydroclimatic] information services.
  • Increase the value of weather and related … information to society.
  • Bring scientific outputs and users’ needs together.
  • Make climate forecasts more socially useful.
  • Stronger sense of responsibility for delivering timely and relevant tools.
  • Accelerate activities to integrate science with the needs of decision makers.
  • Integrate user needs… and ensure that research results are provided in a form useful for users.
  • Sources: Various USGCRP and NRC reports, 1997-2001
issue so many stakeholders
Issue: So Many Stakeholders!

Continental Scale:

Focus of modelers

Different Scales (time & space)

Different Issues

Different Stakeholders

Watershed/Local Scale:

Where impacts happen

Where stakeholders exist

lessons from stakeholders
Lessons from Stakeholders

Building Expectations and Trust

“What are your motives?” (agenda)

“How long is your project really going to last?” (failed promises of past projects)

“What did you do with the last survey?” (checking your responsiveness)

  • Poor interactions with users affects:
  • opportunities for future work
  • credibility of agencies, institutions and products
  • Building trust requires repetition & responsiveness
  • Concerns: agendas, science will be used to hurt them
  • Effective stakeholder integration  generate support for science funding & programs
evaluating societally relevant research and products
Evaluating Societally Relevant Research and Products
  • Changed decisions & decision processes
  • Enabling system-wide change (transferability, scalability)
  • Public support for climate research

Concerns for Climate Science Enterprise

Project Objectives Affect…

  • Metrics
  • Structure of stakeholder interactions
  • Research products
  • Perceptions of climate science enterprise
  • Research funding
objective economic efficiency
Objective: Economic Efficiency

Metrics: Cost/benefits. Return on Investment.

Stakeholder Interaction Structure: Consultant-client relationship with high-value clients (e.g., hydropower).

Research Products: Customized Decision Support Systems. System optimization rules.

Perceptions: Science serving special interests. Increasing competitive imbalances.

Research Funding: By clients through private sector.

objective agency impact
Objective: Agency Impact

Metrics: Policy and regulatory impact.

Stakeholder Interaction Structure: Work with agencies. Important role for policy analysts/scientists.

Research Products: Traditional products. Refereed methodology and results. Hold up in court.

Perceptions: Science serving special interests, agendas. Increasing regulatory burden.

Research Funding: By managed sector, perhaps public.

objective societal equity
Objective: Societal Equity

Metrics: Breadth/diversity of applicability, accessibility, usability. Sectoral ‘market’ penetration.

Stakeholder Interaction Structure: Engagement with diversity of stakeholders. Important role for social scientists. Potentially huge demand on researchers’ time.

Research Products: Diverse. Non-traditional, but not “dumbed down”.

Note: data << information << knowledge << wisdom

Perceptions: Science providing useable information and practical tools. Increasing capacity to adapt to climate variability.

Research Funding: Public.

evaluating success of products and process
Evaluating Success of Products and Process

PRODUCTS: Forecasts

- traditional publications

- MS/PhD degrees

- newsletter outreach

- database of forecasts

- forecast evaluation tool

- “Climate in a Nutshell” (450+)

- presentations to stakeholder groups (25+)

- workshops (research/forecast/stakeholder) (8+)

???

Frequent interaction, from the outset

Interaction… not outreach!

Getting and giving

Starting where the stakeholders are

Moving dialogue & action forward

stakeholder use of hydroclimatic forecasts
Stakeholder Use of Hydroclimatic Forecasts

Common across all groups

Uninformed, mistaken about forecast interpretation

Understand implications of “normal” vs. “unknown” forecasts

Use of forecasts limited by lack of demonstrated forecast skill

Common across many, but not all, stakeholders

Have difficulty distinguishing between “good” & “bad” products

Have difficulty placing forecasts in historical context

stakeholder use of hydroclimatic forecasts1
Stakeholder Use of Hydroclimatic Forecasts

Common across all groups

Uninformed, mistaken about forecast interpretation

Understand implications of “normal” vs. “unknown” forecasts

Use of forecasts limited by lack of demonstrated forecast skill

Common across many, but not all, stakeholders

Have difficulty distinguishing between “good” & “bad” products

Have difficulty placing forecasts in historical context

Unique among stakeholders

Relevant forecast variables, regions (location & scale), seasons, lead times, performance characteristics

Role of of forecasts in decision making

Technical sophistication: base probabilities, distributions, math

forecast assessment climas alternatives
Forecast Assessment: CLIMAS Alternatives

Efficiency

Work with hydropower agencies & other high-value clients

Develop customized evaluation tools

Transfer to agencies

Impact

Work with regulatory & policy agencies

Inform water supply policy via peer-reviewed science & policy analysis

Equity

Also work with stakeholders affected by changing supplies & policies

Develop tools for knowledge development and diverse decision processes

Requires on-going support of research products and tools

slide13

http://hydis6.hwr.arizona.edu/ForecastEvaluationTool/

  • Initially for NWS CPC climate forecasts
  • Six elements in our webtool:
  • Exploring Forecast Progression
  • Forecast Interpretation - Tutorials
  • Forecast Performance
  • Historical Context
  • Use in Decision Making
  • Details: Forecast Techniques, Research
slide15

Climatology

33%

EC

33%

33%

3%

33%

63%

2. Forecast Tutorial

Unknown

Sometimes forecasters don’t know what the chances are…

Climatology is only a reference (1971-2000), not a substitute forecast

“+30% Chance

of Warm”

Each colored contour indicates a shift in the normal chances.

EC - EQUAL CHANCES THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE DETERMINED

= Unknown Chances!!

slide16

3. Forecast Performance Evaluation

Sub-setting: Seasons, Leadtimes, Regions

Criteria: Simple/Intuitive to Complex/Informative

Transparency: Data behind analysis

slide17

3. Forecast Performance Evaluation

Sub-setting: Seasons, Leadtimes, Regions

Criteria: Simple/Intuitive to Complex/Informative

Transparency: Data behind analysis

slide18

2003

2002

2004

4. Historical Context for Forecasts

Requested by

Fire managers…

Applicable to any

climate variable

La Nina

Recent History | Possible Futures

Neutral Non-ENSO sequences

slide19

Wet

Norm

Dry

3.7”

8+”

0”

1.9”

4. Historical Context for Forecasts

Willcox Jan-March Total Precip. 1971-2000

Willcox Jan-March Total Precipitation 1930-2001

1971-2000

Wet Near-Dry

Normal

Precipitation (Inches)

Year

Exceedance Probability

10 years had more than 3.7 inches

10 years had less than 1.9 inches

10 years were in the middle

slide20

4. Historical Context for Forecasts

El NinoLa Nina

50% Wet 0%

30% Norm 25%

20% Dry 75%

El Nino

La Nina

1 2 3 4 5680

1 2 3 4 5680

Willcox, AZ: Precipitation, JFM

slide21

Lessons of FET for Climate Services

Data << Information << Knowledge << Wisdom

Custom real-time data access, analysis, and information

Value-added interpretation

Multiple entry points along continuum of sophistication

Opportunities and tools for increasing sophistication

Knowledge development emphasis vs. decision support

Other issues: Accessibility, ease of use (information management, updating)

  • Are these concepts & tools transferable and scalable?
  • Test with new products, inter-RISA opportunities
slide22

Facilitating Information Intermediaries

Ease of Use  Profile and Projects: save a history of your work on each "project", so you can return to your work any time, easily repeat past analyses using updated data.

  • Accessibility  Report Generation
  • create PDF reports of your analyses for non-Internet users
  • automatically includes legends, data sourcing, contact information, caveats, explanations
  • sections for user-customized comments

Future: Automated Updating & Additional Products: water supply forecasts, experimental climate forecasts, drought monitoring

slide23

Lessons Learned: Knowledge Development Tools

  • Transferable, scalable tools are possible!
  • Focus on knowledge development, not just data & information.

Stakeholders

Information needs, understanding, access

Social Science

Effective communication

Natural Science

Forecast skill,

interpretation

slide24

Lessons Learned: Knowledge Development Tools

  • Transferable, scalable tools are possible!
  • Focus on knowledge development, not just data & information.
  • Interactive webtools require major commitment and resources.
  • Prototypes insufficient!
  • Stakeholders need reliable tools, which require solid software foundation, organized development, sustainability for maintenance and expansion.

Stakeholders

Information needs, understanding, access

Social Science

Effective communication

Natural Science

Forecast skill,

interpretation

Computer Science

Web programming

slide25

Climate Research Impacts Society… Unexpectedly?

Have you heard comments about role of science?

Which objectives are supported by your research and products?

What are your success metrics?

Are there synergies in webtool development?