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Chapter 2 Deteriorating Oil and Food Security. Yen Ha & Jessica Hallenbeck CORE: Human Population. Part I. Crude Oil. The Demand For Oil. Our society has become an oil-based civilization Cars, trains, planes Urbanization: cities, suburbs

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chapter 2 deteriorating oil and food security

Chapter 2Deteriorating Oil and Food Security

Yen Ha & Jessica Hallenbeck

CORE: Human Population

part i

Part I

Crude Oil

the demand for oil
The Demand For Oil
  • Our society has become an oil-based civilization
    • Cars, trains, planes
    • Urbanization: cities, suburbs
  • There has been an annual increase of about 1% for the world’s demand for oil
    • 2005-2006= 0.77% increase
    • 2006-2007= 1% increase
    • Third straight year that annual growth is less than 2%
  • The world currently consumes 85.7 million barrels/day in 2007
    • The leading country: United States
    • 1972- 1 bushel of wheat= 1 barrel of oil
    • 2007- 8 bushel of wheat= 1 barrel

top 25 countries of oil consumption
Top 25 Countries of Oil Consumption


annual growth rate of oil
Annual Growth Rate of Oil
  • United States
    • Unchanged within the past three years with an average of 20.7 million barrels/day
  • China
    • 5.5% increased from 2006-2007
    • Currently consumes 7.7 million barrels/day

The huge increases in Asia and China over the last four decades are very clear.

available oil
Available Oil
  • Estimated 2 trillion barrels of oil are available in the world
  • However, 1 trillion has already been harvested
    • Easy oil: close to shores, near the surface, large reservoirs
    • Tough oil: off shores, deep underground, difficult to find
  • Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy estimates that there still are 1.28 trillion barrels of oil reserves available in the world
available oil cont
Available Oil Cont…
  • Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) have found in 2006 that there is an estimate of 3.74 trillion barrels of oil remaining in the world
  • This could raise questions of new technologies, geopolitical conflicts, and economics to find these new frontiers

measuring the decline of oil
Measuring the Decline of Oil
  • Computer Models
  • Analysis of Reserves and Production Relationship
  • Separate the World’s Oil Production Countries into 3 groups
computer models
Computer Models
  • Projects future oil production and prices based on the past

reserves and production relationship
Reserves and Production Relationship
  • Look to see future production trends
  • M. King Hubbert (US Geological Survey) predicted the production peak based on the time between new discoveries
    • Used the information that the US had new discoveries in 1930
    • Estimated that the US oil production would peak in 1970

separating the world
Separating the World
  • Group 1: Falling production
    • United States, Venezuela, United Kingdom, Norway
  • Group 2: Rising production
    • Russia, Canada, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Angola, Brazil, Nigeria, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Libya
  • Group 3: Verge of a downfall in production
    • Saudi Arabia, Mexico, China
separating the world cont
Separating the World cont.
  • The predictions for many of the countries are true
    • Countries that have already peaked (US, Venezuela, UK, Norway)
  • BUT how about…
    • Saudi Arabia, Mexico,China, Libya
  • For the most part, categorizing these countries are inaccurate at the true representation of their oil production

problems with discovering new oil
Problems With Discovering New Oil
  • 95% of the oil in the world has already been discovered
    • Due to the lack of exploration and new discoveries suggests that oil companies are agreeing to this fact
  • Husseini (former head of exploration at Aramco) claimed that it’s impossible to discover enough new oil reserves to compensate for all the oil demand
    • Need enough to cover the 2 million barrels/day increase of oil demand each year
    • Also need enough new oil to cover for the declining 4 million barrels/day from old oil reserves
  • International Energy Agency (IEA) claims that the demands of 2007 (84.75 mbpd) cannot even reach the oil production of 2006 (85.01 mbpd)
    • Currently, 2007 has produced 85.7 million barrels per day
  • 18 of the top 20 oil reserves were discovered in the 1970’s
    • None of the new oil reserves found within the past decade made the top 20
  • However, if the CERA is correct in its claims about the 3.7 trillion of oil that still remains means that we have NOT discovered most of the oil available on this earth
  • Plus, the annual increase of oil consumption has not increased 2 million barrels/day within the past 3 years
hubbert s peak
Hubbert’s Peak
  • Utilizes a bell-shaped curve to predict the oil production for the future
    • Use the patterns seen from 1992-2006 to predict for 2006-2020
    • 1992: 67 million barrels/day
    • 2006: 85 million barrels/day (18 mbpd increase)
    • 2020: 67 million barrels/day
      • Would require a 21% drop within this 14 years period
      • Nevertheless, with an increase of 1% oil consumption annually, we would need to produce 106 million barrels/day to meet the needs of consumers
critics of hubbert s peak
Critics of Hubbert’s Peak
  • Jerome R. Corsi:
    • Argues that we are constantly finding new oil reserves so the idea of us completely running dry of oil by 2050 is impossible
    • In September of 2006, ExxonMobil claimed that oil in place estimates to about 6-8 trillion barrels per day and 3 trillion barrels per day in oil shale deposits
  • Others
    • The peak of 2006 is lower than the oil production of 2008
    • Estimates of oil productions are expected to increase within the next years
actual hubbert s peak
Actual Hubbert’s Peak
  • Hubbert’s Peak falls short of prediction
  • 2006 was not the peak of oil production since production in 2008 has surpassed it
  • This shifts the prediction curve

actual hubbert s peak cont
Actual Hubbert’s Peak Cont.

Furthermore, the United States is estimated to increase its production within the next two years according to Energy Information Administration

- This dramatic decrease in oil production after the peak of 2006 is yet to be seen

other options for oil
Other Options for Oil
  • The remaining 5% of the oil is in the Artic
    • Which country controls which parts?
    • Problems:
      • Wars, environmental regulations, devastation to the ecological systems
  • Tar sands—products of oil shale
    • Canada has an estimate 1.8 tbpd but only 300 bbpd can be recovered
    • Venezuela has 1.2 tbpd but only 400 bbpd can be recovered
    • Problems:
      • Extremely hazardous to the environment: heating, need lots of natural gas, carbon-intensive
      • 2 tons of sand= 1 barrel of oil
      • Extremely costly: takes 2 barrels out of 3 barrels to pay for the costs
other options cont
Other Options Cont…
  • Oil Shale: conversion of kerogen, an organic material, into oil and gas
    • Colorado, Wyoming, Utah
    • Problems:
      • Requires several barrels of water= one barrel of oil
      • Very costly, climate destruction, time
problems with declining oil
Problems with Declining Oil
  • High demand and low supply
    • IEA estimates that by 2030, we will need 120 million barrels/day to meet our consumer needs in the US
  • We do not change
    • Industries still continues to make cars, airplanes, food, ect. as if the oil will continue to last

problems cont
Problems Cont…
  • Growth of modern cities
    • 400 cities, 20 mega cities with more than 10 million people
    • Requires lots of oil for transportation, operation of large buildings, new technologies, ect.
    • Garbage—needs to go longer distances as the cities grow larger which requires more oil and higher costs
  • Suburbs
    • People need to commute to work
    • Highly dependent in the US where most people still transport using cars rather than public transits
    • Shopping malls, Wal-Marts, roads
  • Bottom line
    • INC in oil prices= INC in cost of food= INC in everything else
    • Without oil, we will no longer be able to travel far distances, get fresh produces, and have our luxurious lifestyles
reality of oil consumption
Reality of Oil Consumption

part ii

Part II

Food and Oil

Since 1950

cheap oil boosts food production
Cheap Oil Boosts Food Production
  • World grain harvest quadrupled last century.
  • 1950-1972: 1 bushel of wheat =1 barrel of oil on the world market = $2
  • 2007: 8 bushels of wheat = 1 barrel of oil
"What is driving oil prices so high?", BBC (November 5, 2007).
  • When oil >$60, becomes cheaper to convert food crops to oil
world grain harvest
World Grain Harvest
  • 1950: 630 million tons
  • Now: 2 billion tons
  • Productivity (with little new land) tripled due to:
    • Tripling of Irrigation
    • 10 times more fertilizer used
    • High yield crops
      • Hybrid corn in US
      • Dwarf wheat and rice in Asia
world farmland
World farmland
  • According to satellite imagery, 15 million km2 of farmland in 2000.
  • New farmland has been created, but much farmland is lost to urbanization and overuse.
food prices are going up to equal oil prices
2006: In US, 16% food crops to oil

In 2008, 30% use projected by Lester Brown

2007: According to the USDA projections the share of ethanol in total corn use will rise from 14% in 2005/06 to 31% in 2016/17.

Food prices are going up to equal oil prices
grain exporters importers
Grain Exporters/Importers

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food vs population

1984: 342 kilograms grain/person

2006: 302 kg/person

Why was there no worldwide famine?


1984: 68 million tons

2007: 222 million tons

Food vs. Population
us agriculture energy
US Agriculture Energy:
  • 19% farm energy to pump water.
  • 2/3 of agriculture energy used by transportation.
  • 7% of agriculture energy used in packaging –more energy for packaging than the food contains.
  • Refrigeration uses the most energy in the food industry.
  • Energy Star models use 50% less energy than those made before 1993.
  • Up to 4kWh per day.

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