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Urbanization, Climate Risks and Uncertainties

Urbanization, Climate Risks and Uncertainties. 2014 NCAR Uncertainties in Climate Research An Integrated Approach Paty Romero Lankao. URBAN FUTURES * * * * * * * * * * * www.ral.ucar.edu/csap/themes/urbanfutures. Goal. Motivation

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Urbanization, Climate Risks and Uncertainties

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  1. Urbanization, Climate Risks and Uncertainties 2014 NCAR Uncertainties in Climate Research An Integrated Approach Paty Romero Lankao • URBANFUTURES • * * * * * * * * * * * • www.ral.ucar.edu/csap/themes/urbanfutures

  2. Goal • Motivation • Research on urban areas, urbanization and risk to explore (un)certainties • Urbanization and urban areas • Scale • Beijing geographyblog.eu Shanghai • Mexico City 2012

  3. Urban Riskand Vulnerability Capacity Romero-Lankao, Hughes, Rosas, Qin, Borquez, Lampis (2014)

  4. 1. Why urbanization, urban areas and risk? Motivation • Research focus on • Exposure, vulnerability neglected • Negative impacts of urbanization • Different definitions of urbanization and urban areas • Limit our understanding of current/future differences in urban risk across and within countries

  5. Rooted in place context, Urbanization: shifts in No standardized definition of urban areas Politico-administrative boundaries Built-environment lay out (urban form) Economic, mobility, informational and operational connections (urban function) Socio-institutional, ecological and built-environment systems • Economic dynamics and capital accumulation • Demographics • Culture and political influence • Built environment and infrastructure • Changes in ecosystem services and functions

  6. What do we know about urbanization and urban areas? • Scale • A five-fold increase of urban populations (1950-2011) • In 2003, 3 billion urban dwellers; by 2030, 5 billion Romero-Lankao and Gnatz: 2011

  7. Rate • In 1950 we had 75 cities of 1-5 million people • In 2011,447 • By 2020, 527 Romero-Lankao and Gnatz: 2011

  8. Urban population projections, by region (2010–2020) Romero Lankao and Gnatz (2011)Data UN (2009) countries own reporting • Location • Currently most urbanization is happening in • Asia/Pacific and Africa • Small and medium cities • Challenges and opportunities

  9. Variations in urban form (risk-scapes) What are we uncertain about? Recent and future Variations in urbanization and development paths • Across and within countries • Within urban areas • Some stabilizing, while others follow different development trajectories • Built-environment, infrastructure • Across and within countries • Within urban areas Romero-Lankao, Gurney, Seto et al., 2014

  10. Why scale? Urban vulnerability and risk vary • With the spatial, temporal, or analytical dimension used by scholars • Across urban households, neighborhoods and cities • Scale can influence a study’s findings (uncertainties) Mexico City (Photo by Romero-Lankao)

  11. Dynamics of urbanization shape risk (regional to global) Country groups 8 • Not only exposure but also sensitivity and capacity • Urbanization and economic indicators to cluster countries • Cross-correlation of clusters with national-level normalized sub-indices of hazard exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (World Risk Index 2012 ) • Not only levels but also rates of urbanization influence vulnerability 10 6 Sensitivity Lack of Adaptive capacity Exposure Source: Garschagenand Romero-Lankao2013 Climatic Change

  12. Mexico: Risks and Challenges to urban adaptation across urban areas Data Methods Ordered Weighted Averaging to aggregate Hazard exposure index Vulnerability index Plotting of each urban area in a two-dimensional space Y-Axis = hazard exposure X-Axis = vulnerability Construction of single metric of risk Data Envelopment Analysis • Hazard exposure • Floods, droughts, storms… • (Desinventar database) • Socio-demographic micro-census (12 million people) • Education, income, employment, age, gender,.. • Access to infrastructure • Municipalities spatially aggregated into urban areas

  13. Preliminary results

  14. Preliminary results

  15. Vulnerabiliby/Capacity and Adaptation vary across scale (Bogota, Buenos Aires, Mexico & Santiago) Note: blue= determinants of vulnerability/adaptation capacity black = actual adaptation actions • Romero-Lankao (NCAR), Hughes (EPA), Hardoy(IIED), Qin (Missouri), Rosas-Huerta (UAM), Bórquez(Chile), Lampis (U. Colombia) (2014)

  16. Informality shapes exposure, capacity and actual responses • Wealthy forms of growth, • enjoy state sanction • receive infrastructural protections (in detriment of poor neighborhoods) • Households in “illegal neighborhoods” • Low, precarious income and benefits (buffers vs. hazards) • Informal tenure of land and housing • Prevents from accessing credit lines and insurance, stigmatizes • Households with legally acknowledged ownership tend to invest more in home improvements Buenos Aires

  17. Uncertainty related to • Research questions we ask • Methods and data we use • Scale: spatial, temporal, or analytical dimension of analysis

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