Local Risk Assessment
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Local Risk Assessment – Action plans for safer communities –. Urban risk is increasing The GRIP approach Risk assessment – Damage scenarios Action Plans for DRM based on scenarios Institutionalization of DRM Governance for implementation. This presentation. Cities are growing rapidly…

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Local risk assessment action plans for safer communities

Local Risk Assessment

– Action plans for safer communities –

This presentation

Urban risk is increasing

The GRIP approach

Risk assessment – Damage scenarios

Action Plans for DRM based on scenarios

Institutionalization of DRM

Governance for implementation

This presentation

Urban risk is increasing

Cities are growing rapidly…

Urban population increases by 180,000 people every day (UN-Habitat)

More than 90% of population growth in developing countries takes place in cities

One third of the population in developing countries live in informal/illegal settlements (World Bank)

Urban risk is increasing

Living under risk
Living under risk

Explosive growth of

urban areas

Population of cities in LA will increase by 50% in the next 25 yrs (OFDA)

There are not appropriate land-use regulations nor the proper mechanisms to enforce or implement them

Living under risk1
Living under risk

Informal Construction

Living under risk2
Living under risk

Codes are not enforced

The professionals are not properly prepared

There are not control mechanisms

Lack of personnel and resources

Living under risk3
Living under risk

There is no awareness of the risk

Due to lack of awareness and information, members of the community increase the risk by making uninformed decisions

What we need to understand

1- The present risk is the result of many years of lack of planning

It will take some time to solve (reduce) the problem

2- The reduction of the risk is everybody’s work, not only work for authorities or technical people

The disaster affects everybody

It is a very complex problem

We ALL contribute to increase or decrease the risk

The time to start is now!

What we need to understand

The grip approach

Assessment - To understand the problem and its magnitude

Planning - To create plans based on the assessment

Implementation- To put the plans into practice


A long term process with the active participation of all the members of the society

The GRIP Approach

The grip approach1

Specific Objective:

To initiate long-term risk management processes in local areas

To achieve this, three tasks are set up

Raise awareness, both locally and internationally, of the local risk and the need to reduce it

Incorporate all the sectors of the community in the risk management activities

Set up the conditions for the long-term continuation and institutionalization of risk management activities

The GRIP approach

Main activities
Main Activities

  • The projects are implemented in 18-24 months

  • Assessment of the Local Risk

    • Preparation, by local experts, of damage scenarios

  • Preparation of a Plan to reduce Local Risk

    • Using scenarios, development of locally-supported Action Plan

  • Setting up the conditions for implementation

    • Development of local capacities to implement this plan

Risk assessment phase

Probable earthquakes

Antofagasta: Magnitude 8.0 , Epicentral distance 60 km

Guayaquil: Magnitude 8.0 , Epicentral distance 200 km

Tijuana: Magnitude 6.5 , Epicentral distance 10 km


Theoretical estimation

Earthquake damage scenario

Interviews with system managers

Risk assessment phase

Assessment of a city s seismic risk

Wooden and mixed structures



Tipo A


Tipo B

Tipo C


Tipo D







MMI Intensity

Assessment of a City’s Seismic Risk

Vulnerability functions

Damage estimates

Community s participation in assessment
Community’s participation in assessment

Interviews with the people in charge of the city systems

Tijuana: Health sector

Zigong: Public order

Examples of estimated impact
Examples of estimated impact

Damage to Buildings in Tijuana

Example of human impact

Displaced people in Tijuana

Estimation based on damage to buildings

People in destroyed buildings + 1/3 people in severely damaged buildings

TOTAL: 130.000

Example of Human Impact

Community s participation in assessment1
Community’s participation in assessment

  • Scenario Workshops

  • Representatives of all the sectors of the society

    • understand

    • discuss

    • improve

  • the risk assessment

Guayaquil (67 people)

Tijuana (50 people)

Risk management planning

Generate ideas, based on the assessment, of activities that, if implemented, will reduce the city’s risk

Work with all related institutions and people to delineate those activities and prepare an Action Plan

Present the Action Plan to representatives of all sectors for them to:



adopt the Plan

Risk Management Planning

Community s participation in planning
Community’s participation in planning

Action Plan Workshop in Antofagasta, Chile

Action Plan for Guayaquil, Ecuador


Engaging all the sectors of the community

A well representative Local Advisory Committee

Well attended Workshops

Informing the community about the project

Effective collaboration with mass media

Developing legal and financial frameworks

Integration in Municipal budgets, incorporation of Industry, financial sector (banks, insurance)

Creating or strengthening RM institutions


Informing the community
Informing the community



Developing financial frameworks
Developing financial frameworks

DRM Investment Strategy for Tijuana

Line e = Investing $15 Millon in 25 years