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Chemical Terrorism: Introduction

Chemical Terrorism: Introduction. Chemicals as Weapons. Historical attempts to poison enemy food supplies Scientific advances increase mass casualty potential Technical advancements New delivery methods. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health Image.

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Chemical Terrorism: Introduction

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  1. Chemical Terrorism:Introduction

  2. Chemicals as Weapons • Historical attempts to poison enemy food supplies • Scientific advances increase mass casualty potential • Technical advancements • New delivery methods National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health Image

  3. Chemical Weapons on the Battlefield • World War I use • Chlorine and mustard gas • World War II developments: • Tabun, Sarin, and Soman by Germany • VX by Great Britain • Rocket delivery • Worldwide outcry for chemical weapon treaties

  4. Chemical Weapons on the Battlefield • Potential chemicals for use as WMD • Organophosphates • 50,000 known chemicals • Manufacturing information available to public • Nicotine sulfate as lethal aerosol

  5. Chemical Weapons on the Battlefield • Potential chemicals for use as WMD • Blood agents • “Choking” agents • “Blistering” agents • Other likely chemicals: Prussic acid (hydrocyanic acid), LSD, pure nicotine, CX

  6. Growing Threat of Chemical Terrorism • 1970’s: moral aversion to CW waning • Groups unsuccessfully attempted to obtain chemical weapons • Weathermen group • Animal Liberation Front group • Neo-Nazi “skinhead” groups

  7. Growing Threat of Chemical Terrorism • 1980’s: reports of seizures of chemical stockpiles and arrests of individuals in possession of CW • Covenant, Sword, and Arm of the Lord group • Various Palestinian groups

  8. Growing Threat of Chemical Terrorism • 1990’s: Increasing use • Iraq’s chemical weapons use: • Against Iranian Soldiers • Against own Kurdish population • Aum Shinrikyo sarin attacks in Tokyo

  9. CW: The Terrorist Risk • Five levels of risk for terrorist use • Threatened use, with no real capability • Unsuccessful attempts to acquire CW • Actual possession of CW • Unsuccessful attempts to use CW • The successful use of CW

  10. CW: The Terrorist Risk • Why haven’t we seen more use by terrorists? • Groups seeking political legitimacy may fear severe backlash • Bombs provide greater shock value and carnage for media coverage • Most likely reason: Uncertainty

  11. CW: Advantages • Advantages • Inexpensive • Easy availability • Long “shelf life” • High level of control and containment • Effect (death or disability) is immediate • Destroys infrastructure • Low risk of detection • Lack of a “signature” allows anonymity

  12. CW: Availability • Nerve Agents are a chemical of choice • Formula and chemical process declassified information • Easy to manufacture from readily available components • For sale on the “black market”

  13. CW: Availability • Commercially available pesticides easily purchased or stolen • Military and Law Enforcement agents may be stolen under the lax security • State Sponsorship of terrorist groups: provision of labs & production facilities

  14. CW: Toxicity • Falls between conventional weapons and biological or nuclear weapons • Environmental conditions are key factor • Goal of the terrorist • Harassment vs. death • Determines type of agent used

  15. CW: Toxicity • Quantity required to produce heavy casualties within square-mile area under idealized conditions

  16. CW: Toxicity WeaponGrams Aerial explosives 320 million Fragmentation cluster bombs 32 million Hydrocyanic acid 32 million Mustard gas 3.2 million Sarin nerve gas 800,000 “Crude" nuclear weapon (fissionable material only) 5,000 Type A botulinal toxin 80 Anthrax spores 8

  17. CW: Toxicity • Attack on a water supply AgentGrams Potassium cyanide 18,000 Nerve agent VX 100 Typhoid culture 1

  18. CW: Delivery • Environmental conditions • Outdoor attacks vs. indoor attacks • Dissemination problems increase logarithmically with increasing target size

  19. CW: Delivery • Municipal water systems attacks • 4 billion gallon reservoir, community of 20,000, and each person consuming 16 oz of water • Requires over 14 billion lethal doses to deliver one dose per person • Fluoroacetates • Requires 600 metric tons to achieve lethal dose

  20. CW: Delivery • Delivery by terrorists • Covert contamination of selected foods and beverages • Covert generation of volatile agent in enclosed space • Covert dissemination of non-volatile agent in enclosed space • Overt attack using “bursting” munitions or thermogenerators

  21. CW: Current Trends • High probability of terrorists use in near future • Likely candidate groups • Various Palestinian groups • Al Qaeda and other state-sponsored, Islamic fundamentalist groups • Extremist groups in US and Europe • Western European and South American terrorist groups not high on list at this time

  22. CW: Defense • Limited defensive capabilities • Deny terrorists access to weapons and chemicals needed for production Los Alamos National Laboratory Image

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