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How to Valorise Research on the Effects of Peak Oil for Urban Planning?. A Method to Investigate Peak Oil Risks and Mitigation Dr. Susan Krumdieck Associate Professor Department of Mechanical Engineering University of Canterbury Christchurch, New Zealand.

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how to valorise research on the effects of peak oil for urban planning

How to Valorise Research on the Effects of Peak Oil for Urban Planning?

A Method to Investigate Peak Oil Risks and Mitigation

Dr. Susan Krumdieck

Associate Professor

Department of Mechanical Engineering

University of Canterbury

Christchurch, New Zealand

Presentation to Walloon Parliament 26 April 2011 Namur, Belgium

peak oil issue
Peak Oil Issue

Even if you believed it was an issue, what would you do about it?

research developments 2000 2011
Research Developments 2000-2011
  • Peak Oil as a Planning Issue
  • Transition Engineering for Mitigation
risk assessment and mitigation
Risk Assessment and Mitigation
  • Risk Assessment: Probability and Impact
  • Adaptive Capacity
  • Resilience
  • Re-Development
  • Strategic Development Planning

New Zealand Herald

peak oil understanding the issue
Peak Oil: Understanding the Issue
  • Not really a question of if
  • Probability

(Campbell, 2004)

peak oil probability
Peak Oil: Probability

Meta Analysis of Petroleum Geology and Supply Experts

Expert Assessments of Peak Oil Year

Expert predictions of

Supply Decline Rate

1.4%

2.0%

2.4%

4.0%

4.8%

6.7%

Number

2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

peak oil issue probability

50% Reduction by 2050

Peak Oil Issue: Probability

Meta Analysis of petroleum geology experts

Raleigh Distribution

Monte-Carlo Simulation

(Krumdieck, Page, Dantas, 2010)

long range fuel supply probability
Long Range Fuel Supply Probability

Probability associated with scenarios of oil supply issues.

peak oil impact
Peak Oil: Impact
  • Behaviour and Access to Activities
  • Assets and Infrastructure Investments

Change in Oil Supply

Current Energy Use

For Current Travel Demand

Adaptation

Future Energy Use

For Future Travel Demand

oil supply decline impact
Oil Supply Decline Impact

Study of Adaptation

University of Canterbury, Christchurch

Students

$13,500 pa

Staff

$66,000 pa

local adaptive capacity
Local Adaptive Capacity
  • Travel Adaptive Capacity Assessment Survey (TACA Survey)
travel behaviour
Travel Behaviour

Trips per week per 100 persons

Students

5.6 litres/wk

34.7 km/wk

Distance Traveled

Staff

17.6 litres/wk

60.7 km/wk

Transport Energy

adaptation in travel demand

Car use reduction

Adaptation in Travel Demand

Do you have an alternative?

Normal

Alternatives

travel behaviour adaptive capacity
Travel Behaviour Adaptive Capacity

Christchurch

49%

Energy Reduction

30%

public transport adaptive potential

Bus Routes

Public Transport Adaptive Potential

Christchurch

33%

Bus Potential

18%

council urban plan 2041
Council Urban Plan 2041

Christchurch Sprawl

Christchurch Densification

95% higher fuel demand than 2006

45% higher fuel demand than 2006

risk to essential transport activities

Travel Activity

Calculate Energy

Consumption

E2< E1?

Modify

Travel Activity

Energy Constraint

E2

E1

No

Yes

Constrained Travel Activity

Calculate Risk

Risk to Essential Transport Activities

RECATS Method

(Dantas et al, 2008)

risk to essential activities

95% Energy Increase

Greater Christchurch Fuel consumption

600

UDS Concentrated

UDS Dispersal

500

400

45% Increase

300

200

100

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Risk to Essential Activities

Canterbury Regional Fuel Use

Risk = 0.65

Risk = 0.17

mitigation and planning
Mitigation and Planning
  • Urban Form Developments
    • Urban Villages and Free Markets
    • Public Transport
    • Densification
    • Bike Infrastructure
  • Technologies
    • Vehicles and Fuels
  • Behaviours
    • Residential Location
    • Mode Choice

Which is the answer?

strategic analysis to 2050

Urban Form Adaptations

Fuel, Vehicle, Behaviour Adaptations

Dense City Centre

Integrated Urban Villages

Current Urban Form

Active Infrastructure 100km Bikeways

Possible

Unlikely

Possible

Possible

3 L/100km

Fleet Efficiency

No

No

No

No

50% Biofuels Synfuels

No

Unlikely

golf carts only

No

No

50% Electric Vehicles

50 km of Electric Trolleys

Unlikely

Possible

Possible

Possible

Yes

Yes

Yes

Possible

Low Carbon Lifestyle

Strategic Analysis to 2050
  • Personal Travel in Dunedin
  • Technical Feasibility
  • Resource Availability
  • Economic Viability
  • Social
  • Environment
  • Asset Value
  • Future Risk
thank you for your attention

Thank you for your attention

Engineering Research to Investigate and Mitigate Peak Oil Risks

Dr. Susan Krumdieck

Presentation to Walloon Parliament 26 April 2011 Namur, Belgium