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Actuarial Assessment of Risk Among Sex Offenders

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    1. Actuarial Assessment of Risk Among Sex Offenders Marnie E. Rice & Grant T. Harris www.mhcp-research.com riceme@mcmaster.ca Presented at the New York Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C. June 8, 2002

    2. Actuarial Assessment of Risk Among Sex Offenders A multi-site study comparing 4 actuarial instruments- VRAG, SORAG, RRASOR, Static-99 Predicting violent vs. sexual recidivism Prediction for child molesters vs. rapists Optimizing ROC areas Prospects for dynamic prediction

    3. Harris, Rice, Quinsey, Lalumire, Boer, & Lang, submitted N= 396 Canadian male sex offenders with an opportunity to reoffend 96 Ontario federal offenders 95 British Columbia federal offenders 205 offenders assessed in Ontario maximum security psychiatric hospital 118 were inpatients 87 were outpatients Approx. half were rapists, half child molesters, 10% both

    4. Harris, Rice, Quinsey, Lalumire, Boer, & Lang, submitted Definition of violent recidivism Definition of sexual recidivism Mean followup= 61.5 mos. (sd=48 mos) baserate for violent recidivism= 47%

    5. ROC Areas for Violent Recidivism