6.2. Biofuels impact on climate

1. 6.2. Biofuels impact on climate Brent Swallow and Henning Baur, ICRAF

2. How big is the energy challengeof climate change? • It is huge - the current development and energy path will bring a surge in emissions • Transformation of global energy systems needed • Technological transformation likely to take several decades to complete

3. Will biofuels help to mitigate climate change? Or, how big is the climate challenge of biofuel production? • How will bioenergy interact with other land uses • Need refined modeling of interactions between different land uses and bioenergy, food and materials Berndes et al. 2003

5. Issue of GhG balances of biofuel production • Biofuels can potentially reduce GhGs • Production methods determine carbon savings • Converting forests, peatlands, grasslands or savannas to produce 1st generation biofuels creates a carbon debt • Carbon debt can be 17 - 420 times more CO2 than the annual GhG reductions the biofuels provide by displacing fossil fuels (Fargione et al. 2008)

7. Carbon savings counteracted by increased nitrous oxide release • N2O emission from biofuel production can contribute as much or more to global warming by N2O emissions than cooling by fossil fuel savings. • Crops with less N demand have more favorable climate impacts. Source: Crutzen et al. 2007

8. Implications of the Kyoto Protocol for biofuels adoption • Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) offers potential for funding biofuels projects in developing countries. • Complex rules, processes and politics restrict access

9. For example: • Biomass projects large in scale and related to grid-based power systems • Land-use related projects restricted to include only afforestation, reforestation and certain biomass related processes; EU Emissions Trading System does not currently accept land-use projects. • Small farmers lack expertise in implementing complex methodologies • Lack of up front funding for projects and investors are less interested in smaller projects with high risks and long timescales. • Small-scale methodologies with simpler requirements and processes for bundling projects have been developed to address some of these issues

10. Need for standards • Biofuel projects less attractive to investors • high abatement costs • difficulties in proving additionality • difficulties in calculating reduced greenhouse gas emissions • Negotiations over the next phase of the Kyoto Protocol considering options for programmatic approaches to the CDM • developing countries could benefit from • perverse incentives could arise • Alternative carbon markets outside of the Kyoto Protocol

11. Emissions embedded in trade flows • Environmental input – output models for detailed multi-country analyses of environmental impacts associated with trade flows • Quantification of emission embedded in imports (EEI) and exports (EEE) • Trend towards accounting for ‘consumer emissions’ • Development of an embedded carbon emissions indicator as a headline indicator for sustainable development

12. Issues for sustainability standards • Conversion of high carbon content systems to arable land • Orders of magnitude of GhG emissions from direct land use change & indirect land use change • How can case-by-case calculation of C stocks and cumulative stock changes can be made operational? • Broad range of N2O emissions • High variability in GhG studies depending on assumptions

13. Thank you for your attention