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Using Pledge Data to Anticipate Possible Impacts of Regulatory Changes in the CFC

Using Pledge Data to Anticipate Possible Impacts of Regulatory Changes in the CFC. Workplace Giving Alliance, Salem, MA February 26, 2013 Atlanta. Campaigns that have made our project possible. THANK YOU!. Data. 98 PCFOs (including NCA) reported for all three years : 2009, 2010 and 2011

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Using Pledge Data to Anticipate Possible Impacts of Regulatory Changes in the CFC

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  1. Using Pledge Data to Anticipate Possible Impacts of Regulatory Changes in the CFC Workplace Giving Alliance, Salem, MA February 26, 2013 Atlanta

  2. Campaigns that have made our project possible THANK YOU!

  3. Data • 98 PCFOs (including NCA) reported for all three years: 2009, 2010 and 2011 • These 98 represented just over 2/3 of the total campaign in dollars • 2009: 69.57% • 2010: 69.87% • 2011: 70.47% • Totals reported were extrapolated up to 100%, which introduces some degree of error, especially for lower-earning charities

  4. Three “Takes” • Connecting number of PCFOs to donor participation • Pledge volatility • Cascading drop in number of charities in CFC

  5. Correlation between decline in number of PCFOs and decline in donor participation

  6. Compare Reduction in # of Local Campaigns to Participation Rate

  7. Volatility in the pledge results

  8. Volatility (Natl/Intl Charities)

  9. Cascade The Charity Perspective

  10. Assumptions • Overall Campaign cost will come down from current budgeted $29 million • We use $20 million • Half to be paid by national charities; half by locals • Fee to be flat, charged in advance, non-refundable • Data reflects 2009, 2010, and 2011 pledges • Many charities will know and be guided by their prior CFC results • Charities will be looking for a positive net

  11. Flat fee cascade

  12. Assume: flat fee at $5,000 • Number of remaining natl/intl charities: 1954 • Fee per charity: $5,000 • Earned for natl/intl share of CFC budget: $9.77 Million

  13. Cascade if charities consider volatility

  14. Assume: flat fee at $5,000 charities take volatility into account • Number of remaining natl/intl charities: 1780 • Fee per charity: $5,000 • Earned for natl/intl share of CFC budget: $8.9 Million

  15. Cascade if charities expect margin of gain

  16. Assume: flat fee at $5,000 charities take volatility into account charities want a margin of gain of $2000 • Number of remaining natl/intl charities: 1545 • Fee per charity: $5,000 • Earned for natl/intl share of CFC budget: $7.73 Million

  17. Other factors that may increase drop-out rate • Up-front, non-refundable fee likely to come as a shock • Above figures reflect pledges, not actual receipts, and do not include federation charges • Charities may have to pay TWO annual fees in advance before they learn how well they may do under the new system. • In subsequent years, charities remaining in the campaign may “re-sort” with at least some of the continuing groups dropping below the fee

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