SUBJECT 2. Valuation of the impact of disasters. DAMAGE AND RECONSTRUCTION NEEDS ASSESSMENT MODULE. DAMAGE AND LOSSES. Loss of life or injury Reduced welfare and well being Material losses and damage Disruption of “normalcy” Degrees of affectation.
DAMAGE AND RECONSTRUCTION NEEDS ASSESSMENT MODULE
Impact on assets
Occur immediately during or after the phenomenon that caused the disaster
Effects on flows
Reduced income and increased expenses
Are perceived after the phenomenon, for a time-period that can last from weeks to months, till recuperation occursMain Concepts
The value we determine
Education, culture, sports
Transport and communications
Water and sewerage
Goods: agriculture, industry
Services: commerce, tourism, etc.
On the environment
Employment and social conditions
Macroeconomic assessmentSECTOR BY SECTOR VALUATION METHODOLOGY
Pre-existing conditions (ex ante)
Of direct and indirect damages
Upon the pre-existing situation
(sector by sector baselines) is aggregated into the national accounts and determines the resulting disaster-caused scenario, as the gap over the expected performance prior to the event. Several scenarios may be outlined, based on the assumptions made for the reconstruction process
Expected performance (without disaster) 3-5 years
Where Va is the initial condition expected for a variable (sectoral, weighed) and Vb is the discounted effect of the disaster.
Measures the capital (assets) lost, estimated by compiling direct damages computed sector by sector.
DY = Ya – Yb
Measures the production/income losses
The capital/income-production ratio is generally assumed not to vary substantively as a result of the disaster
THE EFFECT OF SUCCESSIVE DISASTERS ON CAPITAL FORMATIONAdapted from Mora, “El impacto de los desastres, aspectos sociales, polítifcos económicos, ambientales y su relación con el desarrollo de nuestros países (BID, 1999)
GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION