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CRESCO SPIII Analisi e Simulazione di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse e delle loro Interdipendenze PowerPoint Presentation
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CRESCO SPIII Analisi e Simulazione di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse e delle loro Interdipendenze
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  1. CRESCO SPIII Analisi e Simulazione di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse e delle loro Interdipendenze SANDRO BOLOGNA bologna@casaccia.enea.it CRESCO SPIII Review Meeting Portici, 23 Ottobre, 2006

  2. Esempi di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse • Energia (rete di olio e gas, rete elettrica, …) • Informazione & Comunicazione (reti informatiche e di telecomunicazione • Trasporto (reti stradale, aeree, navali, ferroviarie,….) • Servizi (reti idriche, sanitarie,..)

  3. Public Utilities Infrastrutture fortemente integrate ed interdipendenti e che si basano su un ambiente condiviso Mutato contesto socio-economico Financial Services Infrastrutture verticalmente integrate. Sistemi praticamente autonomi con limitati punti di contatto con le altre infrastrutture Health Care Telecommunication

  4. UNION FOR THE CO-ORDINATION OF TRANSMISSION OF ELECTRICITY The UCTE System: 2100 Twh deliveredto400 ML people

  5. EUROPE GAS CRISIS WINTER 2006 NETWORK STATE OVERVIEW & ROOT CAUSES

  6. Organisational Layer Intra-dependency Cyber Layer Inter-dependency Physical Layer Three Layers Model for the Critical Infrastructure

  7. Electrical Power Operators Independent System Operator for electricity planning and transmission Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Intra-dependency Inter-dependency Control and supervisory hardware/software components (Scada/EMS systems) Electrical Components generators, transformers, breakers, connecting cables etc Telecomunication Infrastructure National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure Three Layers Model for the Electrical Infrastructure

  8. US CANADA BLACK-OUT Power System Outage Task Force Interim Report

  9. CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net Telecomunication Infrastructure Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure

  10. CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure will make use of the latest results on complex systems theory to analyse the network’s property and to understand the emergent behaviors that can take place in the network Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net Telecomunication Infrastructure Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure

  11. Power-law distribution Poisson distribution Random Network Scale-free Network COMPLEX SYSTEMS APPROACH Recent researches on large-scale networks make evident of some global properties which are not pre-specified by network design and are difficult or impossible to predict from knowledge of its constituent parts. (Barabasi, Strogatz, Watts,…)

  12. Present limitations of Complex Systems approach Network as a static graph Given a network with N nodes and L links  Create a graph with statistically identical topology RESULT: model the static network topology PROBLEM: Real networks are dynamical systems! Evolving networks OBJECTIVE: capture the network dynamics • identify the processes that contribute to the network topology • develop dynamical models that capture these processes METHOD :

  13. PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-1 Università degli Studi di Catania, Facoltà di Scienze Matematiche, Fisiche e Naturali, Dipartimento di Fisica ed Astronomia, Prof. Vito Latora

  14. CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure will make use of complementary risk assessment methods to estimate the probability of unwanted incident that may lead to undesired states Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net Telecomunication Infrastructure Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure

  15. Model checking Fault Tree Bayesian networks Extended Petri Nets Modelling tools for dependability analysis

  16. PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-2 • Università degli Studi di Lecce, Dipartimento di Matematica, Prof.ssa Paola Vocca • Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale, Dipartimento di Informatica, Prof. Andrea Bobbio

  17. CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets will make use of analytical approaches to optimize the network in the presence of different type of constraints Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net Telecomunication Infrastructure Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure

  18. X X RO MI Distribution Network

  19. X X TRANSPORTATION NETWORK

  20. PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-3 • Università degli Studi di Salerno, Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell'Informazione e Matematica Applicata: Prof. Ciro D’Apice • Università degli Studi di Palermo, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Informatica, Prof. Antonio Chella

  21. CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities will model the organization and the operator behaviour to study organizational vulnerability Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net Telecomunication Infrastructure Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure

  22. Large Complex Critical Infrastructure (LCCI) Human component Cybercomponent Human Errors Physical component Organisation Technological Grid Copy rights: High-Intelligence & Decision Research Group, CAMO, ENEA, http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.itAuthor: Adam Maria Gadomski, 8/10/2003 SOCIO-COGNITIVE ENGINEERING APPROACH: Human Errors

  23. PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-4 • Università degli Studi di Roma “Tor Vergata”, Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell’Impresa, Prof.Lucio Bianco • ECONA - Centro Interuniversitario di Ricerca sull’Elaborazione Cognitiva nei Sistemi Naturali e Artificiali, Prof.ssa Marta Olivetti Belardinelli

  24. will establish probable correlation among different networks to understand cascading failures or unknown and emergent behaviours CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net Telecomunication Infrastructure Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure

  25. Fuels, Lubricants Fuel Transport Shipping Power for Signalling, Switchers Transportation Fuel for Generators, ,Lubricants SCADA Communications Transpor- tation Fuel Transport Shipping SCADA Communications Power for pumping Stations, Storage Control Systems Oil Fuels, Lubricants Water for Production Cooling Emission reduction Fuel for Generators, Water for Cooling, Emission reduction Power for Switchers Heat Power for Pump & Lift Stations Control Systems SCADA Communications Power for compressors Storage, Control Systems Fuel for Generators, Water for Cooling, SCADA Communications Modelling Networked Infrastructures Interdependencies Transpor- tation Electric Power Natural Gas Water Source: “Critic. Infrastruct Dependencies” Rinaldi, Peerenboom,Kelly 2002 Telecom

  26. PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-5 • Università degli Studi di Roma "Tor Vergata", Dipartimento di Informatica, Sistemi e Produzione, Prof. Salvatore Tucci • C.R.I.A.I. Consorzio Campano di Ricerca per l’Informatica e l’Automazione Industriale, Prof. Giorgio Ventre • Università Campus Bio-medico di Roma, Facoltà di Ingegneria, Prof. Roberto Setola (Università degli Studi del Sannio, Dipartimento di Ingegneria, Prof. Luigi Glielmo)

  27. National InfrastructureSimulation and Analysis Center