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N.K. Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science Director C Red Project HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation. Section 8. Section 7. Section 5. Section 9. NBS-M016 Contemporary Issues in Climate Change and Energy 2010.

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slide1

N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv

Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук

Energy Science DirectorCRedProject

HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation

Section 8

Section 7

Section 5

Section 9

NBS-M016 Contemporary Issues in Climate Change and Energy

2010

4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

slide2

4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

4.1. CURRENT AND PROJECTED USAGE

Projected Saturation Population in 2050 -- 10000 M

consumption averages current UK value

Requirement in 2050 = 50 TW i.e. 5 x 1013 W.

consumption reaches current USA value

Requirement in 2050 = 100 TW

i.e. 10 times current demand

Range of forecasts 20 - 100 TW with a likely value

in range 30 - 50 TW (say 40 TW).

slide3

4.2 PROJECTED LIFESPAN OF RESOURCES

decades:-

centuries:

millennia:

projected average consumption of 40 TW

annual consumption will be:- 1.25 x 1021 J

Compare this to the Current World Proven Reserves:-

Oil Reserves:- 5 x 1021 J

Gas Reserves:- 4 x 1021 J

Uranium:- 1 x 1021 J

Coal Reserves:- 2.6 x 1022 J

Uranium (Fast Breeder):- 1 x 1023 J

Fusion (Deuterium):- 1 x 1030 J

Oil Shales

235U,

Tar sands,

Gas,

Oil,

232Th

Coal,

Geothermal,

D – T fusion,

238U,

D – D fusion

slide4

4.3 "RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES"

Orders of magnitude only

Practically Achievable:-

1010 - Tidal (i.e. 1 x 1010 to 1 x 1011)

1011 - Geothermal; OTEC; Biomass; Wastes

1012 - Hydro; Wind; Waves

1013 – Solar

Projected demand is 40 TW – 4 x 1013 W

slide6

Geothermal

NON-SOLAR

30

60+

10

Italy, Iceland, USA, New Zealand

Tidal

3

50

1

France, Russia, China

Theoretical

Practical

Realised to date

TW

GW

GW

4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

slide7

SOLAR Direct

Geothermal

NON-SOLAR

30

60+

10

Italy, Iceland, USA, New Zealand

(on land)

Tidal

3

30000

30000

50

1.8 electrical 0.2 Active Solar

1

France, Russia, China

USA, Israel: third world

Theoretical

Practical

Realised to date

TW

GW

GW

4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

slide8

Solar Pump

Normal hot water circuit

Solar Circuit

4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

slide10

4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES - Solar

It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?

House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles

- less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!

slide13

SOLAR Indirect

Wind

30

1000

47 and rising rapidly

USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 2200MW in UK

Theoretical

Practical

Realised to date

TW

GW

GW

4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

slide14

OTEC

Waves

SOLAR Indirect

3

30

300

30

0.001

0.01

USA

UK, Norway, Japan

Wind

30

1000

63 and rising rapidly

USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 3000 MW in UK

Theoretical

Practical

Realised to date

TW

GW

GW

4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

slide17

International Airport

country park

Approx 1km

3

slide18

turbine viewing & display gallery

river walk & quay

energy station

floating farmers market

(proposed residential development)

2

slide20

interactive learning centre

working environmental organisations

(country park)

5

slide22

Star of the East

Alsop Architects

slide23

View from Thorpe Station

The STAR will be 50% higher than the pylons which will be demolished

slide24

N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv

Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук

Energy Science DirectorCRedProject

HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation

ENV-M558 Contemporary Issues in Climate Change and Energy

2009

5. CONSERVATION - BARRIERS

24

slide25

5. CONSERVATION - BARRIERS

  • 5.1 GOVERNMENTAL
  • preference to support supply rather than conservation;
      • long term historic memories,
      • consequential political overtones if they under estimate future supply requirements.
  • where grants have been made available, they have often been too late, and too restrictive - and deterred those who have made an investment in the past from doing so in the future.
      • situation now changing - although somewhat restrictive
  • Is the method adopted in US during the Carter Administration a preferential one?

25

slide26

5.1 GOVERNMENTAL BARRIERS

  • lack of / or inadequate legislation to promote conservation (2006 Building Regulations do address some issues, but they are too late and there are still loop holes - so encourages minimum compliance rather than promoting conservation.)
  • delays in decision making favour supply rather than conservation
  • reluctance at Local Government Level to implement tougher measures - e.g. Building Industry who argue against such measures - Exceptions:- Southampton City Council; Milton Keynes.
  • reluctance to promote strategies which could cost Government votes at next election (e.g. higher taxation on petrol etc.) - many measures take a period longer than lifetime of Government to become effective.
  • enactment of legislation which is has loose or incorrect wording:- 1947 Electricity Act in UK. Conservation Bill in US in 1979.

26

slide27

5.2 VESTED INTERESTS

  • manufacturing industries continuing to promote out of date products and/or energy wasteful products - or to give Pseudo-Conservation Information.
  • retailers promoting products on the capital outlay, or other attributes, and not energy consumption.
  • competition between supply industries leads them to promote their products which may not always be the most energy conserving - e.g. off peak heating with electricity. [less of a problem these days]
  • scheduling of TV programs
  • cowboy firms making unsubstantiated claims.
  • preference to view Energy Conservation in terms of MONETARY saving rather than Resource saving.

27

slide28

5.3 ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

  • Incorporation of retrospective pollution controls usually INCREASES energy consumption.
    • e.g. Removal of SO2 leads to:-
    • a) reduced efficiency at power stations, hence increased CO2
    • b) as SO2 is converted even more CO2 is produced
    • c) Limestone required from Peak District etc.
    • d) Disposal of waste Gypsum
    • Additional Transport needed to power stations
    • FGD plant are large - comparable to size of power station
  • (excluding cooling towers).

28

slide29

5. CONSERVATION - DIFFICULTIES

  • 5.4 PHYSICAL LIMITATIONS
  • laws of thermodynamics limit efficiency of energy conversion.
  • climate affects energy consumption
  • geological resources in a country will affect utilisation of energy.
  • e.g. it makes sense to use electricity for heating in
  • Norway which has abundant hydro-electricity,
  • but not in UK.
  • 5.5 TECHNICAL PROBLEMS
  • old buildings/appliances which have a long life so improvements in energy efficiency will take time to become effective.
  • difficulty in making perfect machine
  • difficulty in achieving high insulation standards in brick built buildings

29

slide30

5.6 SOCIAL ATTITUDES

  • desire for greater thermal comfort. Comfort temperatures have risen over last 30 years.
  • desire for greater mobility.
  • desire for smaller households in larger and individual buildings (unlike many other European Countries).
  • come to depend on reliability of energy supply
  • (contrast situation in late 50's).
  • purchasing larger and more energy wasteful appliances -e.g. tumbler dryers, freezers etc.
  • disregarding notices/adverts designed to promote energy conservation.
  • short memories - previous high costs of energy are forgotten when energy becomes cheap.
  • sliding back into old habits.
  • energy conservation not often seen as important as direct investment even when the returns are much greater.
  • decisions made on impulse with little regard to energy used.

30

slide31

The Behavioural Dimension

  • Household size has little impact on electricity consumption.
  • Consumption varies by up to a factor of 9 for any given household size.
  • Allowing for Income still shows a range of 6 or more.
  • Education/Awareness is important

31

slide32

5.7 ECONOMIC BARRIERS

  • We expect a pay back for any investment in a short period
  • Assessment of an Energy project depends not only on the rate of return we expect (allowing for inflation etc.) which is related to the Discount Rate, but on how fuel prices are seen to change in the future.
  • In the mid 1970's, it was predicted by many that the REAL price of energy would at least double by the end of the century.
  • In practice energy is now cheaper in real terms than in 1970's
  • Widely fluctuating fuel prices, and expectations on return can create a STOP GO attitude towards rational spending on Energy saving projects.
  • In Industry, Energy Saving has to compete with increased productivity.
  • A new process which takes half the space of an old equivalent one, produces the same number of items in half the time would be favoured EVEN if it consumed 50-100% more in Energy (as labour costs would be reduced and profits increased because the price of Energy is TOO LOW).

32

slide33

Present Value

Renewables/conservation

nuclear

nuclear

coal

coal

+ve

-ve

Discount Rate

5.7 ECONOMIC BARRIERS

  • The choice of a particular Discount Rate will load the dice in favour of a particular option if only Economics is used in decision making EVEN IF EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS ARE INCLUDED.
  • Fig. 5.1 Effect of Discount Rate on Economic Viability of Energy Projects

High Discount Rates favour Coal

Medium Discount Rates favour Nuclear

Low/zero/negative Discount Rates

favour Conservation and Renewables

Capital Costs

33

slide34

Energy Demand

Business as Usual

Technical fix

Low growth

2004

Time

5.7 ECONOMIC BARRIERS

1973

Projection

34

slide35

N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv

Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук

Energy Science DirectorCRedProject

HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation

NBS-M016 Contemporary Issues in Climate Change and Energy

2010

7. Conservation Possibilities

35

slide36

7. CONSERVATION POSSIBILITIES.

    •  Technical
    •  Education
    •  Energy Management
  • Technical Measures will have limited impact on energy consumption if people are not educated to use energy wisely.
  • Energy Management is a key aspect in energy conservation
  • A good Energy Manager will:-
    • Assess Energy Demand - record keeping
    • Analyse Energy Demand - examine trends relating to physical factors
    • Advise on technical and other methods to promote energy conservation
    • Advertiseand publicise ways to save energy
    • Accountfor energy consumed

36

slide37
Significant saving are possible by reducing waste in conversion of energy to secondary fuels.

Significant savings are possible in some area in end use appliance efficiency - e.g. low energy light bulbs.

Effective Energy Conservation and Environmental Legislation may well see a rise in electricity consumption in the short term.

promotion of heat pumps - require electricity

industry switching to more efficient electrically driven processes. e.g. Case Hardening

move towards electric cars.?????

Hydrogen???????

7. CONSERVATION POSSIBILITIES.

37

slide38
Energy Conservation requires innovative “joined-up” thinking.

Some of the best ideas come from individuals.

What do you see as possibilities?

Would a move to Hydrogen powered vehicles be viable in foreseeable future?

What are the problems?

7. CONSERVATION POSSIBILITIES.

38

slide39

N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv

Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук

Energy Science DirectorCRedProject

HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation

NBS-M016 Contemporary Issues in Climate Change and Energy

2010

8. UK Energy Consumption

Maxine Narburgh

CSERGE

39

slide40

Kung Hei Fat Choi !

Gong Xi Fa Cai !

slide41

8. UK Energy Consumption

Per Capita Consumption in Watts

~ 5 kW

The recent reductions are not as dramatic as appear above as total population has increased by 2.1 million since 2000

41

slide42

8. UK Energy Consumption (Watts/capita)

  • Consumption is roughly 5 kW per capita
  • Industrial Consumption has declined
  • Transport Consumption has increased
  • Despite much improved insulation standards domestic energy use has remained almost static

42

slide44

N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv

Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук

Energy Science DirectorCRedProject

HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation

NBS-M016 Contemporary Issues in Climate Change and Energy

2010

9. Generation of Electricity

Maxine Narburgh

CSERGE

44

slide45

Largest loss in Power Station

9. Generation of Electricity - Conventional

Overall efficiency ~ 35%

Diagram illustrates situation with coal, oil, or nuclear

Gas Generation is more efficient - overall ~ 45%

45

slide46

Generator

9. Generation of Electricity - Conventional.

Multi-stage Turbine

Superheated Steam 563oC

160 bar

Boiler

Why do we condense the steam to water only to heat it up again?.

Does this not waste energy?

NO!!

But we must wait until the Thermodynamics section to understand why?

Pump

Steam at ~ 0.03 bar

Condenser

Simplified Diagram of a “generating set”

includes boiler, turbine, generator, and condenser

46

slide47

Power Station

Chemical Energy

Heat Energy

Boiler

Turbine

Generator

Mechanical Energy

Electrical Energy

9. Generation of Electricity - Conventional

Coal / Oil / Gas

100 units

90 units

90%

48%

41 units

95%

Electricity used in Station

3 units

38 units

47

slide48
Why not use the heat from power station? - it is typically at 30oC?

Too cold for space heating as radiators must be operated ~ 60+oC

What about fish farming - tomato growing?

- Yes, but this only represent about 0.005% of heat output.

Problem is that if we increase the output temperature of the heat from the power station we get less electricity.

Does this matter if overall energy supply is increased?

9. Generation of Electricity - Conventional.

48

slide49

9. Generation of Electricity - CHP

Overall Efficiency - 73%

  • Heat is rejected at ~ 90oC for supply to heat buildings.
  • City Wide schemes are common in Eastern Europe

49

slide50
1947 Electricity Act blinked our approach for 35 years into attempting to get as much electricity from fuel rather than as much energy.

Since Privatisation, opportunities for CHP have increased

on an individual complex basis (e.g. UEA), unlike Russia

A problem: need to always reject heat.

What happens in summer when heating is not required?

Need to understand basic thermodynamics

9. Generation of Electricity - Conventional.

50