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East Africa Exploration – The latest insights May 2007 11th African Oil Gas, Trade and Finance Exhibition Kenyatta International Conference Centre, Nairobi, Kenya 23rd to 25th May 2007 Chris Matchette-Downes, East African Exploration Limited www.ea-x.com Dubai • London •Dar es Salaam • Antananarivo With thanks to Ugandan Petroleum unit, TPDC, OMNIS, SEYPEC, NOCK & INP NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD
East Africa Exploration Summary • Three major tranches of exploration - the current campaign most intense with most of the available acreage taken up, super majors in place, farm-ins occurring, seismic shot, wells drilled & discoveries being made • The region is however still vastly under-explored • East Africa is far more complex margin than that of West Africa – and even in the new campaign, Pomboo was dry and Nyuni was non commercial. Meanwhile Uganda has had a very recent success with combined flow rates of 26,000bbls day-1 and Tanzania reported promising results from the recent Maurel & Prom discovery (Mkuranga #1) and from the last 3 appraisal wells at Mnazi Bay. • The margin requires an understanding of the basic geological fabric, critical re-evaluation of the existing raw data, myths dispelled and more seismic followed by wells • Contrary to the rather pessimistic view that East Africa was at best gas prone, it is abundantly clear through the detailed and systematic analysis of the oil seeps and shows that there is a major early Mesozoic oil prone and an underlying potent Upper Palaeozoic source systems operative throughout much of coastal Kenya, Tanzania and perhaps Mozambique, which is also active in conjugate Madagascar and Seychelles. This system can be also be traced inland via the early but failed break up grabens. • The source rocks are no longer an issue and one can now build up a series of new plays • East Africa is oil prone - the gas we see at Buzi, Pande, Temane, Mnazi and Mkuranga is anomalous • Application of new understanding, technology advances and new technology • (Current global consumption 85million bbls of oil per day)
UNDER EXPLOREDDrilled wells: West Africa vs East Africa 2006/2007 Mputa, Waraga & Kingfisher wells in Uganda, Mnazi Bay & Mkuranga in Tanzania & Pomboo well in Kenya & further wells have been drilled in Madagascar Ref EAPC, Entebbe 2005.
African Oil Production, 2030 Scenario After Clarke 2004
UNDEREXPLOREDMyths .. Myopia .. Misinformation .. • “East coast Africa is at best gas prone” Gas actually maybe anomalous • “There are no contiguous source rocks” Not supported by the evidence • “The Campanian is a recognised source rock in Tanzania” Actually not encountered as a source anywhere in East Africa • “The Jurassic is too mature” New basin modelling puts Jurassic in hydrocarbon window Low heat flow • “The Eocene can generate” Unlikely as too immature • “We have explored East Africa; we drilled a well there didn’t we?” Result: East Africa received scant modern attention until ±3 years ago
Why was East Africa under explored? • Early geological models incorrect – bad well location • Early data not of sufficient resolution – bad well location • Early West coast success – loss of interest • Initial favourable terms • Safe alternative to the Middle East • Other side of the ‘fish pond’ • Myths .. Myopia .. Misinformation –loss of expertise • Result – East coast was neglected and knowledge lost
Misinformation: A source rock is created Kimbiji East #1 “The type example” In Adjacent Kimabji Main #1 no TOC’s reach 1% in the Campanian Kimbiji East #1 TD TOC HI 3550 1.78 152 3582 (TD) 12.20 129
For apotentsource rock system the following ingredients are essential: • High TOC • Highhydrogen content • Material volume of source rock • Optimal maturity • (primary migration/conduit) cjmd
? ? General Stratigraphy Modified from Rusk & Bertagne, TGS NOPEC Morondava Road Show 2006 Sakamena General Stratigraphy Modified from Rusk & Bertagne TGS NOPEC Morondava Road Show 2006 Sakoa
New Advances New Techniques New Thinking Efficient Exploration • Better understanding of basin evolution • Better understanding of the geology, heat flow & source rocks • More accurate basin modelling • Better understanding of potential field data • Modern petroleum geochemical techniques • Satellite data • Improved seismic acquisition techniques, deeper imaging • New processing advances • Optimal well location The above will ensure commercial oil is discovered
The Greater Source Rock System • Several potential source rock units have been promoted as contenders for the migrated oil, gas seeps and shows seen throughout East Africa. To date commercial accumulations of gas have been found at Songo Songo (~1 tcf) stranded gas in Manzi Bay (C~1.3tcf) and just recently 19.2 mscfd in Mkuranga #1. Depositional settings are: Rift Margin, Interior Rift Basins, Failed Rifts and include Triple Junctions ie just like the North Sea, but much bigger • Commercial accumulations of liquid hydrocarbons have remained elusive, despite the numerous shows and seeps, including Africa’s largest exhumed reservoir/seep; Bemolanga/Tsimiroro. Uganda is thus far unique in possessing near commercial oil • This is explained by: the sparse well coverage; wells drilled either on topographic features, gravity identified structures, vintage seismic and fragmentary source rock understanding • There are only two true deepwater well drilled offshore East Africa Simba #1 and the north Pomboo #1, both in Kenya and it appears both chased the elusive & mythical Campanian source rock cjmd
Geological models 225 Ma Initiation of protracted extensional tectonism lead to the eventual cleavage of east and west Gondwana ~200-180Ma
A second phase of rifting/drifting separated Seychelles/India from Madagascar creating the Mascarene basin 85 Ma Late Cretaceous
A third and final phase of rifting/drifting led to the opening of the southwest Indian Ocean 60 Ma K/T boundary Ridge jump. Mascarene to Carlsberg. Massive doming of the Seychelles micro-continent immediately prior to Deccan volcanics
Jurassic source rock signatures Indian Ocean rift margin Interior rifts Failed rifts Marine Carbonate signature a) Lacustrine settings predominate b) Increasing salinity Gammacerane, Sulphur c) Restricted / stressed environments increasing 13C‰, diagnostic biomarker assemblages cjmd
East Africa; Some of the oil & gas occurrences Somalia Mandura Basin oil seeps/shows Kenya Mandura Basin oil seeps and shows Tarbaj Hill seep Pandangua #1: Oil shows Ria Kalui #1: Tarry bitumens Triassic Maji-ya-Chumvi fish beds Cities Services wells offshore Kenya: Oil shows Uganda – The Great Lakes Kingfisher #1 Abertine Graben Heritage 4,120 BOPD Mputa #1 Tullow Light flowable oil Waraga #1 flowable oil Paraa, Kibuku, Kibiro oil seeps & Kaiso-Tonya oil & gas seeps~60MB reserves 52 seeps document (Wayland) 26,000 bbl day-1 Tanzania Makarawe: Tarry bitumens - Karroo age / Jurassic Tundaua: Oil seep - Jurassic (not Campanian) Pemba # 5: Oil shows – Jurassic (same as as Pemba # 5) Kiwangwa: Tarry bitumens – Jurassic? Zanzibar #1: Gas shows Mkuranga #1 Maurel et Prom 19.2 MSCFD Kimbiji East #1: Gas shows Tancan: Gas shows Mafia Island: Oil & gas shows Songo Songo: ca. 1 tcf, Condensate in wells # 1,3,7,9 - Jurassic Okuza island: Oil shows - Jurassic Nyuni Island & well: Oil & gas shows - Jurassic Lipwapwatawre: Oil seep Mikandani: Oil seep Kisangire: Oil shows - Jurassic Wingayongo: Oil seep – Jurassic Wingayongo #1 & #2 - 30m & 40m of tar sandRuhoi River (5km from Wingayongo) - Oil seep Lukuliro: Gas shows - tars, sands in wells Mita Gamma: Oil shows Mandawa: Oil Oils Mbuo: Oil shows Pindiro # 1: Wet gas Lindi #1: Shallow gas blow out Manzi Bay #1 & 2: Gas reservoir, ~1 tcf+, Msimbati-1x (67MB equivalent) Mtwara # 1 Wet gas blowout Misimbati: Oil and gas seeps NE India Bombay High 3B bbls multiple TCF Cambay basin 2.1 B bbls 1 TCF Seychelles Reith Bank #1 oil shows & tar balls Madagascar Ankaramy #1 Oil shows Bemolanga Tar Sands 23B bbl in place Tsimiroro 2.2B bbl in place Mozambique Mocimboa # 1: Oil & gas shows Ponta Unifundo and Pemba seeps Inhaminga oil shows Buzi Pande, Termane, Ibubesi gas Sunray wells: Oil shows 1
The Oils, Tanzania PEMBA #5 2095 - 2130ft Sporadic gold fluorescence 3425 - 3435ft Plastic Bitumen 3450 - 3560ft Varying amounts of bitumen Makarawe #1 1525m Slow crush out 1550m Some tarry material 1620m Some tarry material 1630m Some tarry material 1690m Some tarry material 1700m Some tarry material 1750m Some tarry material 1820m Some tarry material 1845m Some tarry material 1850m Some tarry material 1910m Dull yellow fluorescence 1950m Dull yellow fluorescence 2140m Dull yellow fluorescence 2350m Pale crush cut fluorescence Kiwangwa #1 2500 – 2770m Bitumen 2770 – 3160m High bitumen 3035m Side wall core bitumen 3117.5m strong milky cut fluorescence (side wallcore) Wingayongo oil seep Oil soaked reservoir sand. Rufij Trough Collected August 2004 Oil soaked sand, Tundaua seep, western Pemba, collected August 2003 Tundaua Seep cjmd
The oil families, summary 1. Upper Palaeozoic oil accumulations of Madagascar & Uganda? shows in Tanzania & Mozambique • Lower Mesozoic oil shows of Seychelles, Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique 3. Tertiary oils of India/Seychelles, Uganda? & Tanzania?
Forensic Geochemistry, Consistent database & modern technology euxinic
The two oil families of Seychelles There are at least two source rock families as evidenced from the biomarker assemblages extracted from the tars, and in part from the migrant oil shows in the AMOCO wells and in the Coevity water well. On the left the older Liassic/Upper Triassic sourced family, as seen in Coevity tars, the Coevity water well and in source rocks in the AMOCO wells. Evidence for the second oil family, an Upper Cretaceous / Tertiary source that shares some affinities to the oils from Bombay High accumulation (Ref O.I.L.S. database) is found in Tars from the shores of Prasilin Island to the north. Lower Jurassic/Upper Triassic source Upper Cretaceous/Tertiary source
NEW SEISMICEAX TEA / PSC area & new deep 10 second (20+ km) recordsSome 6,000 km+ of new data in the last 3 years after 15 year gap in exploration acquired by EAX and EAX/Petroquest
The Recent Proprietary Seismic • Uganda Tullow, Heritage, ~ 500 kms • Kenya EAX 770km; Origin 3,200km; Gippsland 1300 km, Woodside 6,000km • Seychelles EAX 3,625 km ; Petroquest/EAX 2,600km • Madagascar EXXONMobil 6,000km & 3D* ; Madagascar Oil & Gas 100km land • Tanzania EAX/AMINEX 550km; Petrobras 5,400km; Artumus; 200km Ophir 2,600km; Dominion 600km (land) Aminex Rovuma 350km, Orca Energy 1,000 kms • Mozambique SASOL 1,000km, Hydro just commenced 2,500 km program offshore Rovuma. Some 36,000 line kms+ in ~36 months * First 3D survey in East Africa
2007 – 2008 SEISMIC • Uganda Tullow, Heritage, Tower & 3D • Kenya EAX/Aminex; Gippsland, Origin, CNOC • Seychelles EAX Petroquest/EAX • Madagascar EAX/Candax, EAX/Gippsland ExxonMobil, Madagascar Oil & Gas, Aminex, Tullow, Wilton, Essar, Roc • Tanzania EAX/Aminex Petrobras; Artumas 2D/3D; Ophir; Dominion) Aminex Tullow/Rovuma • Mozambique SASOL Hydro; Petronas; Anadarko, Artumas, DNO, Bang and Clovis, ENI
GORE™ Surveys – Vs conventional Petroleum geochemical screening Methane will skew interpretation as it is ubiquitous and often biogenically generated Sensitive to a broader range of compounds IDs compound signal in ppt Reports compound signal in ppb Works in virtually any soil condition GORE™ Survey Wetter Clays ppt Sample Abundance ppb Silts The other Techniques ppm Sands Drier C1 C2 C5 C10 C15 C20 Increasingly larger molecules
The future • Greater China /India/South East Asia involvement (China/South East Asia use 17% of the world supply – this is expected to increase to 29% by 2030) • Further / remaining acreage take up • More majors (greater interface between hydrocarbons and finance) • Oil companies will either be bought out / join forces farm down eg Artumas and Anadarko or Hardman and Tullow • More 2D seismic, 3D seismic, more wells, better understanding • Greater success • Appearance of Indigenous companies eg Somken Upstream, Kenya & employment of East African nationals eg UPSL in Tanzania • Commercial found in oil in all East African countries • Considerably more and larger gas finds • NW East Gondwana is perhaps more gas prone - greater chance for finding liquids in the NE and central former Gondwana