Climate Applications/Services theme for WCRP

1. Climate Applications/Services theme for WCRP Carolina Vera Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA) FCEyN/University of Buenos Aires-CONICET Buenos Aires, Argentina with Fred Semazzi, Julia Slingo, Vikram Mehta

2. The relevance of climate information systems that provide products and services for climate-related risk management and decision-making has risen dramatically in the last few years, a trend that is likely to continue. • In the last World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3), WMO and its partners agreed to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to strengthen production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate predictions and services on all timescales from months to decades.

3. WCC-3 (2009) concluded, that ‘major new and strengthened research efforts are required to increase the time-range and skill of climate prediction through new research and modeling initiatives; and to improve the observational basis for climate prediction and services, and the availability and quality control of climate data.’ • The progress made by WCRP on observing, understanding and predicting seasonal to decadal climate variability, along with potential human-induced climate changes, provides a strong foundation for the delivery of a wide range of climate services. • It is therefore the right time to consider the future development of WCRP, and especially its role in the GFCS.

4. Priorities for WCRP • Addressing science needs for delivering more reliable predictions on all timescales • Promoting more research and investment to translate available climate information into the spatial scales and relevant variables required for decisions • Promoting partnerships to focus on the integration of climate research and application needs

5. Fundamental science objectives of WCRP should remain strong Improved modeling capability Observations and monitoring Developing prediction systems and assessing predictability

6. Many of the most dangerous effects of climate variability and change may come through variations on the incidence and/or intensity of extreme events, and communicating those risks to society presents significant challenges: Provision of timely and reliable forecast of the likelihood of hazardous weather and climate is needed

7. (a) Interactions between climate and weather • There is very little understanding of how large-scale climate variability/changes influence fundamental atmospheric dynamics and their interactions with the underlying land. • A WCRP initiative to develop research programs on climate and weather interactions can be very useful for science as well as for GFCS, and would help in bringing CLIVAR, GEWEX and even THORPEX, closer.

8. Priorities for WCRP • Addressing science needs for delivering more reliable predictions on all timescales • Promoting more research and investment to translate available climate information into the spatial scales and relevant variables required for decisions • Promoting partnerships to focus on the integration of climate research and application needs

9. WCRP should promote efforts to fill the gaps between provision and use of current climate information Scale: • Higher resolution, in space & time Specificity: • Targeting new forecast variables • Streamflow • NDVI • Dry spells • Heating Degree Days • Providing a more flexible format Uncertainties: Methods for translating uncertain climate information to products useful for sector decision making are in their infancy and much research is needed. Communication: • Putting information in context • Using clear language

10. Agriculture and Food Production and Climate Variability Recent changes in phenology in the South of France Dates of fruit tree flowering Dates of vine harvest DATE DE DEBUT VENDANGES A CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE depuis 1945 11 - oct Ganichot 2002 6 - oct 1 - oct 26 - sept 21 - sept 16 - sept 11 - sept Domergue 2003 6 - sept Dates of maize sowing 1 - sept 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Changes in the duration of the maize cycle in Tolouse as computed with crop models Brisson et Huard 2005 Site www.avignon.inra.fr/veille_agroclimatique Benoit et de la Torre 2004

11. Health and Climate Variability Evolution of malaria incidence indices in Colombia API : ratio between the number of cases reported and the population at risk per 10,000 inhabitants, computed as the total of cases of both P. vivax (A.V.I.) and P. falciparum (A.F.I.). (Poveda et al., 2000). Temporal evolution of levels of disease risk in Cuba Projected cases of acute respiratory infections and dengue fever for May 2004 Ortiz Bultó et al. (2006)

12. Marine fisheries and ecosystems and climate variability Control Modeled Changes in the recruitment success in Atlantic Cod due to a slowdown of the Termohaline Circulation (Vikebø et al. 2007) Reduced THC A close link has been observed between biological processes, and large-scale climate patterns, like the PDO and NAO (Lehodey et al. 2006). Simulated distribution of 4–6 months old cod. The color scale indicates wet weight in milligram.

13. Chain of Experts & Chain of Information WCRP should promote efforts to fill the gaps between provision and use of current climate information Scale: • Higher resolution, in space & time Specificity: • Targeting new forecast variables • Streamflow • NDVI • Dry spells • Heating Degree Days • Providing a more flexible format Uncertainties: Methods for translating uncertain climate information to products useful for sector decision making are in their infancy and much research is needed. Communication: • Putting information in context • Using clear language

14. Priorities for WCRP • Addressing science needs for delivering more reliable predictions on all timescales • Promoting more research and investment to translate available climate information into the spatial scales and relevant variables required for decisions • Promoting partnerships to focus on the integration of climate research and application needs

15. In spite of statements of intent to interact closely with stakeholders and policymakers in climate research and applications programs, there is still very little meaningful, two-way, and continuous interaction with user communities. • Boundaries between scientific and stakeholder communities have become blurred during the past decade: • A “user” may be a decision maker acting individually or as part of a collective. A “user” may also be a translator of information regarding climate variability or its associated impacts such that the information can be used by decision makers. • A “provider” may be the climate scientist running global climate models or may be the translator that modifies the initial forecast information into a more usable format for the policy or decision maker. Also, a “provider” may be the one that takes the information from the climate model and feeds it through a hydrology model or crop model. • The blurring of boundaries between these communities began when it became clear that effective climate risk management could not be accomplished for certain communities. It has been an important realization, but much work remains.

16. (Adapted from Trenberth 2008) Systems building on interdisciplinary (from social to climate sciences) and trans-sector (from stakeholders to researchers) are the way to provide the climate information that can be effectively used by the different society sectors

17. If the GFCS is to succeed, WCRP should be part of the collective leadership to engage user communities as full partners in climate research and prediction endeavors. • WCRP might address this initiative in cooperation with the other global programs involved in ESSP and by involving key sectors in its activities. • WCRP might have a role in strengthening the science collaboration between the global prediction centers, the regional climate centers and even the future national climate centers or meteorological and hydrological centers. • WCRP should consider developing a group of climate and societal impacts scientists, along with experts in scientific communications, to develop methodologies for interacting with users. • WCRP should address the need for the development of innovative mentoring and training programs to generate a new generation of researchers that can conceptualize, develop and implement research that bridges the gap between science and applications.

18. CONCLUDING REMARKS • It is clear that the context of this theme depends strongly on the other WCRP themes on modeling, observations and processes. • It must involve not only the current WCRP modeling groups but also the Core projects and particularly their regional programs. • It will be important to review these interdependencies and ensure that structures are in place to maximize the effectiveness of the actions arising from these white papers.

19. Additional Material • Goddard, L., Y. Aitchellouche, W. Baethgen, M. Dettinger, R. Graham, P. Hayman, M. Kadi, R. Martínez, H. Meinke, 2009: Providing Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Information for Risk Management and Decision Making. White Paper for WCC3, Geneva, 31 August-4 September 2009. • Vera, C., M. Barange, O. P. Dube, L. Goddard, D. Griggs, N. Kobysheva, E. Odada, S. Parey, J. Polovina, G. Poveda, B. Seguin, K. Trenberth, 2009: Needs assessment for climate information on decadal time scales and longer. White Paper for WCC3, Geneva, 31 August-4 September 2009. •  WCC-3 Conference Statement, (2009): Summary of the Expert Segment. Geneva, 31 August-4 September 2009.