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World War III

World War III. Predicting the Fate of the World System. The System Level of Analysis. Polarity and Polarization. The World System. Composed of states, IGOs and NGOs (see textbook) Characteristics Number of units – Figure 3.1 Increased Uncertainty Increased War? 2. Distribution of Power

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World War III

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  1. World War III Predicting the Fate of the World System

  2. The System Level of Analysis Polarity and Polarization

  3. The World System • Composed of states, IGOs and NGOs (see textbook) • Characteristics • Number of units – Figure 3.1 • Increased Uncertainty • Increased War? 2. Distribution of Power • States vs. Nonstate Actors • Major vs. Minor Powers • Concentration of Power: depends on measurement

  4. CINC Scores as measures of power concentration, 1816-2000

  5. The World System • Composed of states, IGOs and NGOs (see textbook) • Characteristics • Number of units – Figure 3.1 • Increased Uncertainty • Increased War? 2. Distribution of Power • States vs. Nonstate Actors • Major vs. Minor Powers • Concentration of Power: depends on measurement 3. Political Organization • Anarchy vs. Hierarchy – Figure 4.2

  6. GREAT POWERS MIDDLE POWERS SMALL POWERS GREAT POWERS MIDDLE POWERS SMALL POWERS GREAT POWERS MIDDLE POWERS SMALL POWERS b. Polarity and Leadership UNIPOLAR WORLD BIPOLAR WORLD MULTIPOLAR WORLD

  7. Is the world unipolar? • Depends on definition: capabilities, political influence, or leadership? • What makes a state stronger? • What gives a state influence?

  8. Economic, Demographic, and Military Capabilities in the 21st Century * Some believe China overstates its GDP ** Somewhat higher if PPP data used

  9. Is the world unipolar? • Depends on definition: capabilities, political influence, or leadership? • What makes a state stronger? • What gives a state influence? • Most dramatic differences between US and rest: military spending and global reach

  10. Military Spending: US (FY 2008) vs. Rest of World

  11. 3 3 5 5 5 5 3 9 3 9 2 2 5 5 5 5 5 5 c. Alliances and Polarization WEAKLY POLARIZED MULTIPOLAR WORLD STRONGLY POLARIZED MULTIPOLAR WORLD

  12. A Brief History of General Wars Are there patterns of world war in history?

  13. General Wars in History A. Habsburgs and Universal Empire 1494-1559 • Italian Wars (1494-1515): France vs. Spain (Habsburgs)  France vs. Holy League (Spain, England, Papal States, Venice) • French vs. Habsburgs (1521-1529, 1536-1538) • French and Ottomans vs. Habsburgs and England (1542-1546, 1552-1559) 

  14. B. Dutch Independence (1568-1609) • 1570s – 1600s: Dutch Revolt vs. Hapsburgs (Spain) • 1585: England Intervenes vs. Hapsburgs  Spanish Armada (1588)  Stalemate • French Protestants Aid Dutch Rebels • 1590s: Spanish intervention in French religious wars • Spain defeated in France (1590s)

  15. C. Thirty Years’ War (1618-1648) • Protestants vs. Catholics • Stages: • Hapsburgs (Spain, Holy Roman Empire) vs. German Protestants • Fear of Hapsburg unity –> anti-Hapsburg intervention (France, England, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden) • Worldwide: Dutch vs. Portuguese and Spanish • Ending = Peace of Westphalia (book) • Hapsburg Power Limited (Territorial States) • French Gains  Collapse of Holy Roman Empire • Dutch naval dominance

  16. D. Anglo-Dutch Wars (1652-1679) • England and France vs. Netherlands • Worldwide, but not very bloody • Dutch colonies lost • Renewal of Anglo-French competition

  17. E. War of the Grand Alliance (1688-1696) • France invades Germany (1688) • League of Augsburg (Spain, Sweden, German states) opposes France • 1689: Grand Alliance formed vs. France (Austria, England, Netherlands, Spain, Germans) • “King William’s War” in America • French naval power destroyed, but France gains in Europe

  18. F. War of the Spanish Succession (1701-1714) • Hapsburg King of Spain dies – After partition fails, France claims throne • France, Spain, Bavaria, Portugal, Savoy vs. new Grand Alliance (England, Holland, Austria, other German states) • “Queen Anne’s War” in America • France agrees never to unite with Spain • English power increases dramatically

  19. G. War of the Austrian Succession (1739-1748) • Hapsburg Heir to Austria dies  Succession crisis • German states attack Austria (Saxon, Bavarian, Silesian Wars) • France aids German states  Franco-Austrian War (1744-1748) • Britain, Netherlands, Austria vs. France and Spain • “King George’s War” in America • France fails in objectives; Hapsburgs win

  20. H. Seven Years’ War (1756-1763) • French-English rivalry meets Austrian-Prussian competition • France and Native American allies attack English colonies (1755) • Prussia declares neutrality in French-English war • France responds by aiding Austria against Prussia • Alliances: France, Austria, Russia, Saxony, Sweden, Spain vs. Prussia, Britain, Hanover • More global than previous wars • French and Indian War in America • War in India and Southeast Asia • Results • France loses Quebec, India and other areas to Britain • Austria loses in Europe • Prussia becomes Great Power • Expenses  American Revolution and renewed French-British war

  21. I. Wars of the French Revolution and Napoleon (1792-1815) • War of the First Coalition (1792-1798): England, Spain, Austria, Prussia, Sardinia vs. France • Reaction to executions, threat of revolution • France wins in Continental Europe, but England keeps fighting • War of the Second Coalition (1798-1802): England, Russia, Austria, Turkey vs. France • Triggered by French gains in Italy, Germany • Rise of Napoleon • French-British War (1803-1805)

  22. 3. War of the Third Coalition (1805-1807) • Britain, Russia, Austria, Sweden vs. France and Spain • Austria surrenders unconditionally • French-Spanish fleet destroyed (Trafalgar) • Napoleon gains Poland, most of Germany. Forced alliance with Austria.

  23. 4. Continued Napoleonic Wars • Peninsular War (1807-1812): Napoleon vs. Portugal, Britain, and Spanish guerillas • Austro-French War (1809): Austria defeated again • Franco-Russian War (1812): Severe defeat for Napoleon • War of 1812 (to 1814): United States vs. Britain

  24. 5. Allies vs. Napoleon (1812-1815) • 1812-1814: Napoleon defeated; return to 1793 status quo • b. Napoleon’s Return (1815): France defeated, punished

  25. 6. Results • British supremacy at sea • Congress of Vienna: • Russia, Prussia gain territory • Austria gains in Germany and Italy • “Congress System” • “Eastern Question”

  26. J. Crimean War (1854-1856) • Russia vs. Turkey  Intervention by France, Britain, Piedmont-Sardinia • Limited War: Crimea and Baltic coasts • Results • Russia concedes before war becomes general • Concert of Europe • Power vacuum  Rise of Prussia (Wars against Austria and France, German unification)

  27. K. World War I (1914-1919) • Prewar: Multipolar but Polarized system • Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Italy) vs. Triple Entente (Britain, Russia, France) • Threat of Hapsburg collapse after assassination  A-H vs. Serbia  Russia vs. A-H  Germany vs. Russia  Germany vs. France  Germany vs. Britain

  28. 3. Europe at War: Central Powers vs. Allies

  29. 4. Results of World War I • Final collapse of Hapsburgs • End of “Eastern Question” • Destruction of German naval challenge • Relative decline of Europe • League of Nations

  30. L. World War II (1939-1945) • Germany and Italy vs. Britain and France (1939-1941) • Japan vs. China (1937-1941) • Soviet and American entry (1941) Allies (USA, USSR, Britain, France, China) vs. Axis (Germany, Italy, Japan) • Results • Five victorious “Great Powers” but only two superpowers • Beginning of Cold War – and “Long Peace” • Nuclear weapons

  31. M. Summary of General Wars

  32. The War That Wasn’t Why did the Cold War stay cold?

  33. The War that Wasn’t: The Cold War • US vs. USSR: The world chooses sides

  34. B. Impact of Nuclear Weapons • Destructiveness of a single weapon • Example: 100 KT Surface Blast, Fort Hood Main Gate • 100 KT = larger explosion than WW II atomic bombs but much less powerful than many 1950s weapons

  35. 15 psi: Virtually all dead 5 psi: 50% dead, 45% injured 2 psi: 5% dead, 45% injured) 1 psi: 25% injured

  36. Compare: 1 MT Surface Blast

  37. Compare: 20KT Surface Blast

  38. Example: 100 KT Surface: Fallout 1 hour: Lethal 2 hours: Lethal 3 hours: Lethal 4 hours: Lethal and 50% Lethal 5 hours: Lethal and 50% Lethal Possible Zone of Sickness

  39. 2. Effects of full-scale nuclear war a. Immediate Deaths

  40. b. Fallout

  41. b. Fallout

  42. b. Fallout

  43. c. “Nuclear Winter” Controversial theory condemned as “defeatist” by Cold Warriors

  44. C. Nuclear Crises • Iran 1946 • Berlin Blockade 1948-1949 • Korea 1950-1953 • Quemoy-Matsu 1954 and 1958 • Berlin Wall 1961 • Cuban Missile Crisis 1962 • Vietnam 1969 • October War 1973

  45. D. Pervasiveness of US-Soviet Competition • Popular culture

  46. a. US images of Communism

  47. b. Communist Images of the US • “Freedom, American style”

  48. b. Communist Images of the US • “Two worlds - two goals. We are planning new life. They are planning death.”

  49. b. Communist Images of the US • “This is freedom?”

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