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The Orange Order and British Protestant Ethnicity: A Comparative Perspective

The Orange Order and British Protestant Ethnicity: A Comparative Perspective. The Orange Order. Fraternity formed 1795 in Northern Ireland Stands for loyalty to British Crown & Protestantism Political Protestantism, NOT evangelical Protestantism. More ethnic than religious.

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The Orange Order and British Protestant Ethnicity: A Comparative Perspective

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  1. The Orange Order and British Protestant Ethnicity: A ComparativePerspective

  2. The Orange Order • Fraternity formed 1795 in Northern Ireland • Stands for loyalty to British Crown & Protestantism • Political Protestantism, NOT evangelical Protestantism. More ethnic than religious. • Associative cornerstone of British-Protestant ethnicity in several places • Britannic ethno-nationalist • Rapid international spread

  3. ESRC Research • Fellowship focuses on dominant ethnicity and social change • Issue of how ethnic cores of nations deal with liberal modernity and globalisation • Orange Order as the associational glue behind dominant ethnicity in N.I., Canada, W.C. Scotland • Devolution Programme Grant looks at Orange-UUP link in Northern Ireland • http://www.canadian-english.com/OrangeOrder/

  4. Main Research Questions • What factors cause per capita Orange membership strength to rise and fall over time and across place? (social question) • How effective is the Orange Order in determining policy change, and why does its power rise and fall over time and place? (political question)

  5. Research Methodology • Quantitative: Compare Orange membership among Protestants with variables from census, police reports, history, polls. Over time and across county and ‘province’ (N.I., Scotland, Nfld., Ontario) • Qualitative: Compare Orange resolutions and organised political activity over time and place. Look at class profile of elite and membership over time. Interviews. • Sources: Previously unseen internal documents; census, polls, violence stats, valuation rolls, some newspapers

  6. Current Presentation • Will focus on quantitative research since that has been initial thrust • Happy to answer technical and qualitative questions as well

  7. Analysis of Variation in Membership Patterns • International Patterns (v. Canada, Scotland) • Variation over Time in Northern Ireland • Variation by County in Northern Ireland • Inter-Fraternal Patterns (v. Masons, IOOF) • Theories of Change • Results of Statistical Analyses

  8. Concentrated in Ontario, NB & Nfld

  9. Current Trends in N.I. Orange Membership, 1966-2001

  10. Inter-County Patterns, N.I. Orangeism • General decline since membership peak in early 1960’s (mid-Ulster), or 50’s (East) • Height of the ‘Troubles’ (1969-72) boosted membership temporarily, as did Anglo-Irish Agreement and Drumcree • However, general trend is a steady decline • Urban areas suffer heavier declines, even taking into account population flows.

  11. International Orange Similarities • All jurisdictions experience growth until the 1920’s • All decline in the Depression years • All experience growth after World War II • All experience steady decline in recent decades • N.I; Scotland 1; Scotland 2 ; Ontario; Newfoundland

  12. International Differences • Membership decline sets in as early as the 1920’s in Canada and decline in the 1920-39 period is sharper • Membership decline in the post-1960 period has been quicker in Canada, while Northern Ireland and Scotland have declined at similar steady rates

  13. Inter-Fraternal Patterns • Orange Order has withstood post-1970 declines better than Masonic NI2 • Inter-County Patterns in Masonic match those of Orange NI3

  14. Summary • Great deal of similarity in shape of historical patterns of membership across nations and fraternities • Great deal of difference between places and fraternities in terms of slope of rise/decline in membership

  15. Theories of Fraternal Change • Beito: Decline in 1920’s as welfare state emerges • Emery: Decline in 1920’s or 30’s due to private insurance and expanded recreational options • Putnam: Depression caused decline, WWII boosted membership. Differences in ‘Social Capital’ between Generations explains most of post-1960 decline. • Culturalist: Decline of Protestant Religiosity (Bruce?), Decline of Loyalty to Crown, Decline of British-Protestant Ethnic Identity, Ecumenism

  16. Preliminary Research: Qualitative • Based on Interviews & Reports • Leaders and Rank-and-file members point to structuralforces • But nearly all admit cultural pressures • Also speak of role of events • Institutional changes not seen as significant by members - though leaders think otherwise • Qualitative evidence inconclusive

  17. Preliminary Statistical Tests – Across County • NI: Catholic Population is by far the most important determinant. Economic factors not important (1901-71). Denomination key: % RC and %Other Protestant increase membership; %Methodist and % Presbyterian strongly decrease it.

  18. Quantitative Analysis: Scotland and Canada • SCT: Catholic population most important determinant, as with NI case. Irish born population of fifty years ago is also very important. All other factors pale in comparison. (for 1901-71) • ONT: No strong factor - Irish Protestant population most powerful. Proportion Irish, French or Catholic has limited effect. (1911-41)

  19. Preliminary Statistical Tests – Across Time • Denominational balance (esp. rise of Methodism and Other Protestant sects) important during 1901-71. • Orangeism in N.I. responded to RC population growth until 1970, but not since then • Political events (Troubles, Peace Agreements, Drumcree) have been a factor in N.I. post-1970 • Rate of Protestant fatalities have had little impact in N.I. since 1970 • High-school education appears correlated with membership decline in Ontario during 1955-75 • Still more work needed in this and other areas

  20. Conclusion • Orangeism was a worldwide movement though strongest in Ulster and eastern Canada • Orangeism’s rise owed a lot to inter-ethnic conflict with a Catholic ethnie. Relatively Catholic counties in N.I. and Scotland have far more ‘Orange’ Protestants

  21. Conclusion II • The role of economic change is minimal during the period 1891-1971 in all areas • The role of events is only truly important in N.I. – especially in the post-Troubles period • Strong evidence against ‘contact’ hypothesis • No real answer as to why Orangeism in decline • Evidence appears to support Putnam thesis, though more work needed with respect to generation, as well as time-series analysis

  22. Further Research • Inclusion of 1971-2001 census data • Time Series Analysis using Opinion polls from post-1969 period • Examination of Initiations, as well as Junior and Female trends • Qualitative Research on Political Strength

  23. http://www.canadian-english.com/OrangeOrder/

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