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Feedback Dynamics & the Amplification of Climate Change

Feedback Dynamics & the Amplification of Climate Change. Spatial Sink. Geo- thermal energy. Temperature. Solar energy. Radiative Forcing. Contrails & Aerosols. Cloud Effects. Albedo Effect. Other GHGs Concentration. Carbon Dioxide Concentration. Methane Concentration.

todd-moore
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Feedback Dynamics & the Amplification of Climate Change

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  1. Feedback Dynamics & the Amplification of Climate Change

  2. Spatial Sink Geo- thermal energy Temperature Solar energy Radiative Forcing Contrails & Aerosols Cloud Effects Albedo Effect Other GHGs Concentration Carbon Dioxide Concentration Methane Concentration Water Vapour Concentration

  3. Spatial Sink Geo- thermal energy Temperature Solar energy F.G F.R Radiative Forcing F.3 F.4 Contrails & Aerosols F.2 F.5 Cloud Effects Albedo Effect F.1 F.6 Other GHGs Concentration Carbon Dioxide Concentration Methane Concentration Water Vapour Concentration

  4. Spatial Sink Geo- thermal energy Temperature Solar energy F.G F.R Radiative Forcing F.3 F.4 Contrails & Aerosols F.2 F.5 Cloud Effects Albedo Effect F.1 F.6 Other GHGs Concentration Carbon Dioxide Concentration Methane Concentration Water Vapour Concentration

  5. Spatial Sink Geo- thermal energy Temperature Solar energy F.G F.R Radiative Forcing F.3 F.4 Contrails & Aerosols F.2 F.5 Cloud Effects Albedo Effect F.1 F.6 Other GHGs Concentration Carbon Dioxide Concentration Methane Concentration Water Vapour Concentration

  6. Spatial Sink Geo- thermal energy Temperature Solar energy F.G F.R Thermal Inertia F.3 F.4 Radiative Forcing Contrails & Aerosols F.2 F.5 Cloud Effects Albedo Effect F.1 F.6 Other GHGs Concentration Carbon Dioxide Concentration Methane Concentration Water Vapour Concentration

  7. Spatial Sink Geo- thermal energy Temperature Solar energy F.G F.R F.Ti F.3 F.4 Thermal Inertia Radiative Forcing Contrails & Aerosols F.2 F.5 Cloud Effects Albedo Effect F.1 F.6 Other GHGs Concentration Carbon Dioxide Concentration Methane Concentration Water Vapour Concentration

  8. T h e A P O L L O - G A I A P r o j e c t Feedback Dynamics Simulator

  9. NRI(t) The value of Net Radiative Imbalance at time (t) is governed by: 1: Change in Solar Radiance from (t0) to (t) 2: Anthropogenic Forcing at time (t) 3: Consequential Feedback at time (t) 4: Radiative Damping Coefficient x ΔTt

  10. The Core Structure NRI(t) ΔSRt RDC.ΔTt AFt CFt

  11. The Fundamental Equation NRI(t) ΔSRt - + = + AFt CFt RDC.ΔTt

  12. Climate Sensitivity Amplification of the Anthropogenic Disturbance of the Climate System

  13. Ozone Water Vapour Carbon Dioxide Water Vapour

  14. Half Benchmark Semi-log (base 2) scale construction Column 1 Incremental power Pre-Industrial Benchmark Column 2 2 raised to power Column 3 Column 2 x 140 Double Benchmark

  15. °C +8 440 +6 +4 +2 CO2ppm 0 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 -2 -4 180 -6 -8

  16. °C °C Equilibrium Temperature for CO2 concentrations with no feedbacks +8 CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 440 +6 +4 +2 1.2 * CO2ppm 0 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 -4 180 -6 -8 °C

  17. °C °C CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Equilibrium Temperature for CO2 concentrations with fast feedbacks +8 440 +6 +4 3 * +2 1.2 * CO2ppm 0 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 * -4 180 -6 -8 °C

  18. °C °C CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with fast + C-cycle f-backs +8 440 +6 * Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 4.5 +4 3 * +2 1.2 * CO2ppm 0 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 * -4 * 180 -6 -8 °C

  19. °C °C CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations + fast & some slow f-backs +8 440 +6 * 6 * Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 4.5 +4 3 * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 +2 1.2 * CO2ppm 0 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 * -4 * 180 -6 * -8 °C

  20. Earth System Sensitivity?

  21. °C °C Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 +8 7.8 440 +6 * 6 * Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 4.5 +4 3 * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 +2 1.2 * CO2ppm 0 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 * -4 * 180 -6 * -8 °C

  22. °C °C Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 +8 7.8 440 +6 * 6 * Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 4.5 +4 3 * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 +2 1.2 * CO2ppm 0 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 * -4 * * 180 Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] -6 * -8 °C

  23. °C °C Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 +8 7.8 440 +6 * 6 * Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 4.5 +4 3 * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 +2 1.2 * CO2ppm 0 * 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0] * -4 * * 180 Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] -6 * -8 °C

  24. °C °C Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 +8 7.8 * 440 +6 * 6 * Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 4.5 +4 3 * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 +2 1.2 * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 CO2ppm 0 * 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0] * -4 * * 180 Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] -6 * * -8 °C

  25. °C °C Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 +8 Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1] 7.8 * * 440 +6 * 6 * Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 4.5 +4 3 * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 +2 1.2 * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 CO2ppm 0 * 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0] * -4 * * 180 Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] -6 * * -8 °C

  26. °C °C Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 +8 Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1] 7.8 * * 440 +6 * 6 * Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 Pagani point: [360, 3.0] 4.5 +4 * 3 * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 +2 1.2 * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 CO2ppm 0 * 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0] * -4 * * 180 Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] -6 * * -8 °C

  27. °C °C Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 +8 Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1] 7.8 * * 440 +6 * 6 * Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 Pagani point: [360, 3.0] 4.5 +4 * 3 * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 +2 1.2 * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 CO2ppm 0 * 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0] * -4 * * 180 Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] -6 * Mathematical Cross-Check: * -8 °C

  28. °C °C Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 +8 Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1] 7.8 * * 440 +6 * 6 * Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 Pagani point: [360, 3.0] 4.5 +4 * 3 * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 +2 1.2 * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 CO2ppm 0 * 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0] * -4 * * 180 Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] -6 * Mathematical Cross-Check: Radiative Damping Coefficient = 3.3wm-2°C-1 * -8 °C

  29. °C °C Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 +8 Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1] 7.8 * * 440 +6 * 6 * Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 Pagani point: [360, 3.0] 4.5 +4 * 3 * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 +2 1.2 * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 CO2ppm 0 * 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0] * -4 * * 180 Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] -6 * Mathematical Cross-Check: Radiative Damping Coefficient = 3.3wm-2°C-1 Radiative increase (Ice-age minimum to Pre-Industrial Benchmark) = 16.5wm-2 * -8 °C

  30. °C °C Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 +8 Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1] 7.8 * * 440 +6 * 6 * Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 Pagani point: [360, 3.0] 4.5 +4 * 3 * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 +2 1.2 * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 CO2ppm 0 * 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0] * -4 * * 180 Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] -6 * Mathematical Cross-Check: Radiative Damping Coefficient = 3.3wm-2°C-1 Radiative increase (Ice-age minimum to Pre-Industrial Benchmark) = 16.5wm-2 CO2 contribution = 2.54wm-2 * -8 °C

  31. °C °C Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 +8 Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1] 7.8 * * 440 +6 * 6 * Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 Pagani point: [360, 3.0] 4.5 +4 * 3 * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 +2 1.2 * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 CO2ppm 0 * 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0] * -4 * * 180 Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] -6 * Mathematical Cross-Check: Radiative Damping Coefficient = 3.3wm-2°C-1 Radiative increase (Ice-age minimum to Pre-Industrial Benchmark) = 16.5wm-2 CO2 contribution = 2.54wm-2 Feedback contribution = 13.96wm-2 * -8 °C

  32. °C °C Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 +8 Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1] 7.8 * * 440 +6 * 6 * Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 Pagani point: [360, 3.0] 4.5 +4 * 3 * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 +2 1.2 * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 CO2ppm 0 * 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0] * -4 * * 180 Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] -6 * Mathematical Cross-Check: Radiative Damping Coefficient = 3.3wm-2°C-1 Radiative increase (Ice-age minimum to Pre-Industrial Benchmark) = 16.5wm-2 CO2 contribution = 2.54wm-2 Feedback contribution = 13.96wm-2 Hence Amplification Factor = 6.49 * -8 °C

  33. °C °C Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 +8 Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1] 7.8 * * 440 +6 * 6 * Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 Pagani point: [360, 3.0] 4.5 +4 * 3 * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 +2 1.2 * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 CO2ppm 0 * 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0] * -4 * * 180 Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] -6 * Mathematical Cross-Check: Radiative Damping Coefficient = 3.3wm-2°C-1 Radiative increase (Ice-age minimum to Pre-Industrial Benchmark) = 16.5wm-2 CO2 contribution = 2.54wm-2 Feedback contribution = 13.96wm-2 Hence Amplification Factor = 6.49 Sensitivity = 7.79 °C * -8 °C

  34. °C °C Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 +8 7.8 * 440 350 +6 * 6 * Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 4.5 +4 3 * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 +2 1.2 * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 CO2ppm 0 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 * -4 * * 180 -6 * * -8 °C

  35. °C °C Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 +8 7.8 * 440 350 +6 * 6 * Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 4.5 +4 3 * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 +2 1.2 * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 CO2ppm 0 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 * Correlations and Consequences -4 * * 180 -6 * * -8 °C

  36. °C °C Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 +8 7.8 * 440 350 +6 * 6 * Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 4.5 +4 3 * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 +2 1.2 * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 CO2ppm 0 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 * -4 * * 180 -6 * * -8 °C

  37. °C °C 8 CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 6 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 4 2 0 Equilibrium Temperatures up to second doubling of CO2 concentrations 16 15.6 14 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 690 12 12 Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 10 Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 9 6 2.4 CO2ppm 643 739 792 849 910 975 690 600 1120 1045

  38. °C °C Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks CO2 only: amplification x 1.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 +8 7.8 * 440 350 +6 * 6 * Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 4.5 +4 3 * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 +2 1.2 * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 CO2ppm 0 280 140 150 161 172 185 198 212 227 244 261 300 322 345 369 424 455 487 522 560 396 * -2 * -4 * NB. All lines refer to change that is slow and close to equilibrium Those conditions no longer apply * 180 -6 * * -8 °C

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