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Introduction to the American Political Process

Introduction to the American Political Process. Elections. Campaigns and Elections: An Introduction. Several topics in the next three lectures: The spatial model revisited –electoral responsiveness The mechanics of the process: How do we choose our leaders?

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Introduction to the American Political Process

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  1. Introduction to the American Political Process Elections

  2. Campaigns and Elections: An Introduction • Several topics in the next three lectures: • The spatial model revisited –electoral responsiveness • The mechanics of the process: How do we choose our leaders? • The campaign: Strategy and tactics • The role of the media • Campaign financing • How do people decide for whom to vote? • The place of negative campaigning

  3. The Spatial Model Revisited ●Apply to elections ○Electoral system matters: PR vs. Plurality rule? ○Plurality rule system ●One-dimensional policy space ●Single-peaked utility function ● Majority rule ●Prediction: candidate convergence

  4. Democratic Seats and Votes Percent Seats Percent Votes/SeatsPercent Percent Votes Year

  5. Presidents, and House and Senate Means, 1st Dimension of Joint Space Regan Bush Nixon Ford Liberal Conservative Clinton JFK LBJ Carter House Senate Presidents

  6. Where’s the convergence? ●Presidential candidates? ●Congressional candidates? ●Why does the median voter theorem fail? ○Primaries? ○Candidate reputation? ○Different distinct medians? ●Importance of parties

  7. Political Parties in American Politics ●Parties serve goals of candidates ○Parties regulate competition for office ○Parties avoid chaos in Congress ○“Party” in government can lead to “party” in the electorate ○ Parties can coordinate action across different levels of government ●Perverse consequences

  8. Campaigns and Elections ●The importance of elections ● Elections ensure that government can be responsive to its citizens ● Properties of elections legitimate process ○Elections are regular ○Everyone gets one vote ○Procedures are in place so we can (usually) agree who won

  9. Presidential Nominations ●Nominations: A historical perspective ●How are candidates selected? ○Primary elections ○Local caucuses

  10. Money Raised

  11. Money Spent

  12. The Modern System ●Evolution over time ○1912-1924: The first wave of primaries ○1924-1968: Party leader centered politics ○1972-Today: The second wave of primaries

  13. The Rise of Presidential Primaries Percent of Republican Delegates Percent of Republican Delegates Percent of Delegates/Number of Primaries Number of Republican Primaries Year

  14. Presidential Nomination ●Unintended consequences ○Frontloading

  15. New Hampshire ●7th Smallest State ●2 million residents ●“First in the nation” Primary ●2000 Turnout: ○238,606 Republicans ○154,639 Democrats

  16. The Dynamics of the Electoral Campaign ●Winnowing ●The “Big Mo” ○Election –The horserace ○Pre-Election: Name recognition and money ●The Horserace ○Creating Momentum

  17. CNN/USA Today Poll Kerry Dean

  18. Money Raised

  19. Money Spent

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