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Defining Probability

This comprehensive overview of probability, authored by Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D., defines essential concepts such as events, the universe of possibilities, and introduces the Law of Large Numbers. It explores the axiomatic foundations of probability, emphasizing key principles such as the necessity of at least one event occurring and the complement rule. The discussion also considers the perception of probability as opinion and belief strength, providing practical examples, including the context of medication errors and surgical accuracy. Visual tools like Venn diagrams are included to illustrate complex ideas.

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Defining Probability

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  1. Defining Probability Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.

  2. Definition Element Event

  3. Definition Universe of possibilities Venn diagram

  4. What is probability? All possible events

  5. What is probability? All possible events Event A

  6. What is probability? Probability of A =

  7. What is probability?

  8. What is probability?

  9. Law of Large Numbers

  10. Law of Large Numbers

  11. Law of Large Numbers

  12. Law of Large Numbers

  13. Law of Large Numbers

  14. Law of Large Numbers More Observations Less Error

  15. Range of Probability

  16. Odds

  17. Odds

  18. Odds

  19. Odds

  20. Odds

  21. Odds

  22. Odds

  23. Odds

  24. Odds

  25. Probability as Opinion

  26. Probability as Opinion

  27. Axiomatic Definition of Probability

  28. Axiomatic Definition of Probability 1. At least one event must happen

  29. Axiomatic Definition of Probability 2. Probability is greater than or equal to zero

  30. Axiomatic Definition of Probability 3. P(complement) is one minus P(Event)

  31. Axiomatic Definition of Probability 4. P(two mutually exclusive events) is sum of each

  32. Opinions Like Probabilities

  33. Probability As Strength of Belief On a scale from 0 to 100, where 100 is for sure, how certain are you that medication errors will occur in next visit?

  34. Context for Study of Belief

  35. Take Home Lesson Probability is the count of event divided by count of all possible events

  36. Do One In examining wrong side surgeries in our hospital, what are the elements, events and the universe of possibilities? Draw the Venn Diagram

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