The relationship between economic conditions and British emigration from the UK

1. The relationship between economic conditions and British emigration from the UK Migration and the economic crisis: response of Brits at home and abroad Sheffield University 23rd September 2013

2. Overview Home Office Research report, Emigration from the UK,published in 2012, sets outs key aspects of the scale and nature of long term emigration from the UK over the last 20 years.This presentation sets out the key findings from the research focusing on the relationship between economic conditions, in the UK and receiving countries, and British emigration from the UK. www.gov.uk/government/publications/emigration-from-the-uk

3. Outline • Net migration and levels of emigration • Why do British citizens leave the UK • Where do British citizens go • UK Economic conditions • The Emigration decision • Unemployment rates • GDP growth • Exchange rates • Differential impacts

4. Net migration: all nationalities Emigration increased in the last decade, falling since 2009

5. Net migration: British citizens British emigration fell to a low of 128,000 in 2010

6. Around half of all British citizens leaving the UK do so for work related reasons

7. ‘Professional and managerial’ is the largest previous occupation group for British emigrants

8. Australia is the top British emigration destination

9. UK in period of limited economic growth • The UK experienced a sustained recession between spring 2008 and Summer 2009, and economic growth has been limited since then. • There are a number of variables that may indicate an ‘economic crisis’, including: • Rising unemployment • Negative GDP growth • Low/Weakexchange rates Home Office research explored whether British emigration from the UK is influenced by these 3 variables. The slides that follow attempt to explore these relationships. It should be seen as descriptive analysis only (as data quality did not permit full statistical analysis).

10. Economic conditions affect the decision to emigrate in different ways. Economic conditions Capacity Incentive Emigration Decision

11. UK unemployment inversely associated with British emigration

12. Spain and UK unemployment inversely associated with British emigration to the EU15

13. UK unemployment inversely related to British emigration to Australia

14. US and UK unemployment not related to British Emigration to the US

15. GDP growth related to British Emigration to EU15

16. GDP growth not related to British Emigration to Australia

17. GDP growth and British Emigration to the US

18. Relative exchange rates associated with British emigration from the UK.

19. Different economic conditions will effect different groups of migrants in different ways This presentations sets out the findings relating to British Citizens, however different nationalities are likely to be influenced by economic conditions in different ways: EU15 return emigration: inverse relationship UK/EURO exchange rate in recent years. EU8 emigration from UK: strong relationship UK/EU8 unemployment and GDP/Zloty exchange rate Non-EU emigration from the UK: flows not as responsive to short run changes in economic conditions.

20. Economic conditions will influence different groups of emigrants in different ways • Flows of those leaving the UK for work related reasons may be expected to fall during an economic downturn due to the impact on capacity to emigrate. Additionally if unemployment levels in destination countries high, incentive may also be reduced. • The incentive for Students to emigrate may increase during an economic downturn, whilst capacity may be limited. • Those retiring abroad, may lack capacity during an economic downturn. Relative exchange rates may also negatively impact upon the value of savings and therefore reduce incentive • Those emigrating to accompany/join family members, are less likely to be driven by national economic conditions.

21. Economic conditions will influence different groups of emigrants in different ways

22. Key points • Unemployment rates: • UK unemployment appears to be associated with emigration levels for British citizens, particularly to Spain and other EU15 countries. • GDP growth • The general strength of the receiving economies might be of limited importance and other drivers such as family networks or migration policy may have a stronger influence on emigration, at least within the EU. • For outflows of British nationals to Australia and the US there appears to be no clear relationship between GDP growth and emigration • Exchange rates • Data from 2000 to 2010 suggest that sustained falls in British emigration since 2007 have been mirrored by the depreciation of the pound against the Australian dollar, the Euro and the US dollar. • Difficult to explore further due to IPS sample sizes.