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Financial Behaviour of Households – Evidence from Quarterly Financial Accounts in Austria

Financial Behaviour of Households – Evidence from Quarterly Financial Accounts in Austria International Conference “Statistics – Investment in the future 2” Prague, September 2009 External Statistics and Financial Accounts Division Michael Andreasch. Storyboard.

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Financial Behaviour of Households – Evidence from Quarterly Financial Accounts in Austria

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  1. Financial Behaviour of Households – Evidence from Quarterly Financial Accounts in Austria International Conference “Statistics – Investment in the future 2” Prague, September 2009 External Statistics and Financial Accounts Division Michael Andreasch

  2. Storyboard • Quarterly (financial) accounts: • Responsibility and sources • Financial behaviour of (individual) households • “Angels”: short-term developments, trends • Portfolio allocation of individuals • Quarterly financial accounts: A bridging exercise in the framework of economic analysis • Actual results and use of quarterly financial accounts data

  3. Responsibility for the compilation of quarterly accounts NSI- Annual non-financial (sector) accounts- Excessive Deficit Procedure- Quarterly non-financial accounts of the Government (Gov.) Sector. Central bank- Annual financial accounts- Quarterly financial accounts (national/national EAA)- Quarterly financial accounts of the Gov. Sector- Annual external statistics (BOP, IIP, FDI)- Quarterly external statistics

  4. Sources

  5. Short-term reactions (in autumn 2008) of households …. Purchases/sales of different categories as indication fordifferent behaviourof Individuals … determining theresults of Q4 andof the whole year

  6. … and long-term trends between 1981 and 2008, 1 Close relationship betweensaving and financial investment Loan financing less volatile than financial investment

  7. … and long-term trends between 1981 and 2008, 2 • Financial investment in 2008 close to average • Decline and recovery like in other “bust” periods? • Contribution of deposits in 2008 similar to 1981

  8. Financial portfolio of households in 2008 …… 20% of total liabilities of the MFI sector 75% of total liabilities of the ICPF sector

  9. Households, clustered by types of investors Less than 5 % of these householdsown securities 75 % Less than 10 % of these householdsown securities More than 50 % of these householdsown securities More than 15 % of these householdsown securities

  10. Quarterly financial accounts data – A bridging • Taking into account short-term developments (derived from monthly data on deposits and tradable securities) indicating any changes in the quarterly pattern • Comparing the quarterly results with long-term time series for households and flow of funds for all sectors on a who-to-whom basis (households as important net lender) • Analysing the developments against the background of key variables of the “real economy”, like:- saving- unemployment, inflation- interest rates and financial market indicators- consumer confidence

  11. Quarterly changes in financial wealth • Investment: flat in nominal terms, in % of NDI • Decrease unemployment till Dec 08, peak of inflation in June 08 • Net change heavily effected by price changes …

  12. Preferences for individual types of securities • Bank bonds and mutual funds dominate the results • No net sales of listed shares since 2007Q3 • Other securities: mainly foreign bonds and ATB

  13. Preferences for instruments and issuers

  14. Use of quarterly financial accounts data • National publication- Internet (quarterly update)- Press release (quarterly)- Contribution in external publication (biannual)- Press conference (October) • Financial Stability Report (biannual)Financial investment, price changes of securities, and financial wealth • Cross checking of key variables of financial / nonfinancial accounts data (NDI, saving, net lending) • Envisaged: Link between (sample based) survey data on financial behaviour (HFCN) and quarterly financial accounts to monitor regularly the individual behaviour

  15. Publication • Quarterly data- Households2006Q1 - 2009Q1- HH + NPISHs :2001Q1 - 2009Q1available approx. T+95 daysextension envisaged • Annual data of Householdsincluding NPISHs stocks: 1980 - 2008;flows: 1981 - 2008 www.oenb.at/en/stat_melders/datenangebot/datenangebot.jsp

  16. Thank you for your attention Michael Andreaschmichael.andreasch@oenb.at

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