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Michael S Wright Director, Greenstreet Berman Ltd T: 020 3102 2117

Fire and rescue response time fatality rate relationships: IRS based updates and new FSEC modelling routines. Michael S Wright Director, Greenstreet Berman Ltd T: 020 3102 2117 Michael.wright@greenstreet.co.uk. Aims.

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Michael S Wright Director, Greenstreet Berman Ltd T: 020 3102 2117

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  1. Fire and rescue response time fatality rate relationships: IRS based updates and new FSEC modelling routines Michael S Wright Director, Greenstreet Berman Ltd T: 020 3102 2117 Michael.wright@greenstreet.co.uk

  2. Aims • Replace fire & rescue fatality rate relationships with regressions using latest IRS data • Model non fatal casualties • Align FSEC & IRS special service categories • Improve time of day modelling • IRS date supplied for 31/3/ 2009 to 30/09/2011

  3. Screening of special services • Fatality rate • Response time relationship • Total number of cases

  4. RTCs Effecting entry to medical cases

  5. Other transport • Also checked sub categories for other types of special services

  6. Alignment of new to current FSEC special service categories

  7. Revised response time relationships (RTCs) • Evidence of relationship with serious casualties and deaths

  8. Impact of second response time (RTCs) • Tend to show increased fatality rate as second response gets longer

  9. Second appliance & serious casualty models Second response time • No • Water Rescues, Suicides • Other Transport Incidents • Medical Incidents • Yes • RTC • Other Rescue Serious injury model • No • Suicides, Water, Other Transport • Yes • RTC • Medical • Other Rescue

  10. Ratio of fastest to slowest response time fatality rates • 5.5 times for RTCs • 18.6 times for Other Transport rescues • 2.5 times for Other Rescues • 12 times for Water rescues • 2.4 times for Medical Incidents • 3.2 times for Suicides

  11. Impact on predicted deaths • 22.5% more deaths than the current FSEC functions

  12. Dwellings • Not much change in response time fatality relationship

  13. Dwelling serious non fatal casualties • Weak relationship

  14. Dwelling 2nd and 3rd response times

  15. Dwelling – One vs 2+ appliance incidents • Lower fatality rates if just one appliance

  16. Dwelling type fatality rates • Really related to type of dwelling • Developed dwelling type risk factors

  17. Other Buildings • Can determine a relationship • Building type important

  18. Individual & Societal Risk • Model each and add together • Big impact on results

  19. Time periods Enable modelling of impact of change shifts systems: • Split risk by time period • Allow finer modelling of shifts • Flexible time period boundaries for shifts • Minimal change in results • Shows impact of (e.g.) removing appliance at night

  20. Conclusions • Results sensitive to every second of change in response time • Includes serious non fatal casualties & second appliance times where applicable • Far more accurate modelling of Other Buildings • More accurate special service modelling • Can model impact of change in shift systems • Consistent with IRS • ...minimal extra work for users – all optional

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