1 / 26

AMMA phase 2 and THORPEX-Africa

AMMA phase 2 and THORPEX-Africa. Jean Philippe Lafore CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France With thanks to the AMMA-International Scientific Steering Committee and to the numerous participants to AMMA. WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting

tia
Download Presentation

AMMA phase 2 and THORPEX-Africa

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. AMMA phase 2 and THORPEX-Africa Jean Philippe Lafore CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France With thanks to the AMMA-International Scientific Steering Committee and to the numerous participants to AMMA WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting 8-10 May 2012, Geneva, Switzerland

  2. Wet period 20% 10% 0 -10% -20% Dry Period The largest regional deficit of rainfall observed during the last century évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  3. Uncertainties about the future évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  4. Climate Variability Impacts Water Agriculture Health Demographics Security évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  5. 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (15-20 April 2012) Outline Flooding: Ghana 07 • AMMA project • Some major outcomes of AMMA-1 • Main objectives of AMMA-2 • Current tasks in the THORPEX area • Forecaster’s handbook • NWP • ISV • Conclusion Dry spells évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  6. THORPEX-Africa Models Researchers Greater emphasis in AMMA-2 National Operational Services Aim 1 To improve our understanding of the West African Monsoon variability Regional Centers Main contribution of AMMA phase 1 (2002-10) AMMA: An international program on West African monsoon variability and society-environment-climate interactions Aim 3 To ensure that the AMMA research is integrated with prediction & decision making activities (Forecast/EWS) Societal needs Forecasts/EWS Aim 2 To provide the underpinning science to relate WAM variability to related societal issues To define & implement relevant monitoring & prediction strategies Knowledge Observations Scientific questions évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  7. AMMA: Established an International Community AMMA coordinated with international programmes and bodies Research field experiments / Database & library Observation networks; Modelling; Satellite Products tailored & validated Coordination : Multidisciplinary, Different communities International : ~600 people from 30 countries Africa : ~250 pers ; Research and Application (Forecast/EWS) communities Training/Education: PhD (160 incl 80 Africans!!) Masters, Summer Schools, Workshops Communication (external & internal) évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  8. Ewiem Nimdie Summer School - July 2008 évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  9. http://database.amma-international.org http://amma.agrhymet.ne mirrored in Africa at AGHRYMET (Niamey) Other projects: FENNEC, ALMIP2, ESCAPE,… Multidisciplinary Observations 1400 questionnaires of a socio-economic study Natural resources data AMMA Bibliography Géré à l’OMP évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  10. Radiosoundings: A Major Achievement of AMMA The AMMA radiosonde budget was about 2.5 M€ Operational agencies in the region launched the great majority of these sondes. Around 50% of these were the routine operational commitment, which has continued by and large. A significant fraction of the data were not communicated to the GTS. Funding issue to maintain a basic operational network • Project submitted to DG/Dev of EU (via SECAO) no news évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  11. More humidity in EXP Assimilation of AMSU-B over land Impact on TCWV Average over the period 1 Aug-14 Sep’06 TCWV (EXP-CTL) TCWV diurnal cycle at TOMB • Positive impact of the assimilation of AMSU over land • Large impact over Tropics in Monsoon regions • especially over Africa and in region with a poor data coverage • Improvement of the diurnal cycle Karbou et al, 2009a, b évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  12. AEJ increase Assimilation of AMSU-B over land T (EXP-CTL) Vz (EXP-CTL) Karbou et al. 2009a, b évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  13. 48h Smaller errors in EXP 72h EUMETSAT (28-30 June 2011) WMO RAI Dissemination Expert Group 2nd Meeting Assimilation of AMSUB over land Forecast errors versus ECMWF analyses (forecast–analysis) 200hPa Z, 1-31 Aug’06Difference between EXP and CTR 24h • Positive impact of the assimilation of AMSU over land • Large impact over all Tropics on the wind field in the upper troposphere Karbou et al. 2009a, b évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  14. New forecasting methods in Africa Knowledge transfer Researchers  Forecasters Outcome Example: Forecast for civil security (Aviation, Floods, etc) AMMA, ACMAD, Météo-France, OMM, Services Météo Nationaux Africains évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  15. AMMA Forecast method:WASA/FWest African Synthetic Analysis/Forecast List of the 10 key features to put • ITD • Heat-Low • SubTrop Jet • Trough from midlatitude • TEJ • AEJ • Troughs and cyclonic centres associated to African Easterly Waves (AEW) • Midlevel dry intrusions • Monsoon layer • Convective activity: • Suppressed convection • Convection: isolated, MCS and Squall Lines 9 Provided by models Other features évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  16. 19 July 2006 AT 0600Z WASF from D-2 WASF from D-1 WASA évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  17. WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting 8-10 May 2012, Geneva, Switzerland AMMA Phase 2 (2010-2020) Updated International Science Plancompleted December 2010 www.amma-international.org/IMG/pdf/ISP2_v2.pdf Research Themes: (i) Interactions, Society, Climate (ii) Weather, Seasonal and Climate Predictability and Prediction (iii) Monsoon System Priorities • Capacity building • Aims 2 and 3 will receive greater emphasis in phase 2 THORPEX-Africa évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  18. WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting 8-10 May 2012, Geneva, Switzerland Forecasters’ Handbook for West Africa • The forecasters’ handbook aims to: • Document existing best-practice for the region • Import and test new ideas from other parts of the world; • Exploit new scientific results from AMMA (e.g. use of land-surface remote sensing for daily to intraseasonal forecasting. • The project has formal WMO / WWRP / THORPEX-Africa support; ACMAD is leading the management • Well structured (chapters, editotial committee…) • We hope to publish this as a commercial book (this option is preferred by the African participants) • Target timescale for completion: 2013. • Lack of funding to support this project and more especially African contribution(short stays of African forecasters to elaborate materials) •  it’s not a text book (forecasting methods, Illustrations) • Case studies for training (AOC website already provides many examples) • Some support from NERC (only meetings) évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  19. WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting 8-10 May 2012, Geneva, Switzerland Evaluation of TIGGE and ECMWF forecast products over West and Central Africa • Collaboration: • LOCEAN (Janicot), ANACIM (N’Diaye), Cameroon (Kamsu) • TIGGE multi-models ensemble runs : forecasts at 15-day range • 2008-2012 • Evaluation for all seasons of the main 15-day modes and MJO-mode over West and Central Africa • ECMWF ensemble simulations at 45 and 60-day ranges • Hindcast over 1989-2008; ensemble runs : forecast twice a month (every fifteen days, the first one at 45-day range, the second one at 60-day range) • Evaluation for all seasons of the main 15-day modes and MJO-mode over West and Central Africa • Courtesy F. Vitard (ECMWF) évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  20. Real-time monitoring and forecast of intraseasonal variability ISV 10-25 days: Sahelian mode OLR • Major progresses during the last decade in documenting and understanding the African ISV • 3 main timescales: 25-90 days: • link to the MJO (e.g. Matthews 2004, Janicot et al. 2009) 10-25 days: • Quasi-Biweekly Zonal Dipole (QBZD, Mounier et al. 2008) • Sahelian mode (Janicot et al. 2010), • Variability of the Saharan Heat Low and link with midlatitudes (Chauvin et al. 2010, Roehrig et al. 2011) 3-10 days: • African Easterly Waves (e.g. Kiladis et al. 2006), • Synoptic variability of precipitable water (Couvreux et al. 2010, Poan et al. 2012), • Kelvin waves (Mounier et al. 2007) • Objectives: • Confront the climatology to the real world; • Investigate the forecast skill of the monsoon ISV, based on our current knowledge • Approach: • Address these 2 points through a real-time exercice évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  21. Project« ISV-monitoring » http://isv.sedoo.fr • Collaboration between France & Senegal (ANACIM, LPAO-SF): involving forecasters • Started in 2011 • Monsoon season JJAS • A real-time website, simple but easily and rapidly evolving, according to the encountered needs and ideas • Use of websites providing complementary information (broader context) • e.g. MJO: Wheeler’s website + NCEP • Regular briefing & reports (~2/week) between Toulouse and Dakar. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  22. “Canonical” HLE “Canonical” HLW HLW – 16 June K m s-1 Shading: θ850 anomalies Black contours: raw θ850 Vectors: wind anomalies at 850 hPa Green contours: raw sea level pressure • High similarities with canonical events: they make sense in the “real world” Overview of 2011 ISV: 10-25-day scale HLE – 7 June K m s-1 fdb évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  23. HLW5 HLW1 HLW2 HLW3 HLW4 HLE2 HLE1 HLE3 HLE4 Overview of 2011 ISV: 10-25-day-scale Heat Low intraseasonal index • 3 HLE events: 5-9 June, 18-24 July, 1-4 Sep • 4 HLW: 12-18 June, 25 June-1 July, 10-14 Aug,7-10 Sep • The season begins with a HLE event, favorable to the monsoon onset (Roehrig et al. 2011) évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  24. Precipitable Water index and Rainfall: over Senegal Rain gauge precipitation PW anomalies Precip (mm day-1) PW anomalies (kg m-2) June July August Sept • High correlation (0.57) between precipitation and PW over Senegal, especially after the monsoon onset (0.63). • High potential of the PW variable Overview of 2011 ISV: 1-10-day scale Synoptic Variability of Precipitable Water (PW) PW anomalies [12N-20N] • Same characteristics as the canonical mode: frequency, propagation • Differences between the eastern and the western Sahel structures (as in Poan et al 2012) kg m-2 évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  25. WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting 8-10 May 2012, Geneva, Switzerland Conclusion for the « ISV-monitoring » • Conclusions: • 10-25 days • Monitoring of heat low variability provides some large-scale information on the monsoon system. The relationship with the onset (Roehrig et al. 2011) seems to work this year • The monitoring of the QBZD and Sahelian modes is less obvious (not shown). • Synoptic scales: • PW has a large potential: high predictability, strong relationship with precipitation. • Future: • New exercise in 2012: with new diagnostics and with higher involvement of Senegalese forecasters • Quantitative evaluation of: • Diagnostics (e.g., filtering effects) • Skills of ECMWF forecasts for different scales(PW, Heat Low…) évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  26. Final Thoughts • AMMA will continue:- To mobilize, reinforce & coordinate the African & international communities working on the West African monsoon and its societal impacts. • - To combine Observations, Forecasts, Capacity building, Knowledge transfer to better anticipate and mitigate the human (and natural) impacts of weather and climate variability • Challenges to consolidate AMMA-Africa- To strengthen * visibility and support regionally & in each country * collaboration between research & application communities * integration of African PhDs in research & application (NHMS/EWS) centers- To maintain & improve observation network to forecast & monitor weather and climate variabilities and its impacts évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

More Related