The Prevention, Treatment and Management of Conduct Problems in Childhood

1. The Prevention, Treatment and Management of Conduct Problems in Childhood David M Fergusson Christchurch Health & Development Study Department of Psychological Medicine University of Otago, Christchurch March 2011

2. Introduction In this talk I will attempt three tasks: • A brief review of the evidence showing linkages between childhood conduct problems and later developmental outcomes including crime, imprisonment, mental health outcomes, substance abuse, teen pregnancy, domestic violence and related outcomes. • A more extensive review on the evidence from randomised trials of prevention and treatment programmes. • Examine the translation of this evidence to Positive Behaviour for Learning.

3. The Christchurch Health AndDevelopment Study The Christchurch Health and Development Study (CHDS) is a longitudinal study of a birth cohort of 1265 children born in Christchurch, New Zealand. This cohort has been studied at birth, 4 months, 1 year, annual intervals to 16 and at 18, 21, 25 and 30 (a total of 22 occasions). As part of this research, extensive data was gathered on childhood behavioural adjustment and outcomes in young adulthood.

4. Key Findings From The CHDS On the basis of data gathered from parent and teacher reports over the ages 7-9 years, children were classified on an underlying dimension of conduct problems that ranged from none to severe.

5. Outcomes At Age 25Crime With increasing early conduct problems there were increases in rates of offending, arrest and imprisonment

6. Outcomes At Age 25Substance Use With increasing early conduct problems there were increases in rates of nicotine dependence and illicit drug dependence

7. Outcomes At Age 25Mental Health With increasing early conduct problems there were increases in rates of mental health problems and suicidality.

8. Outcomes At Age 25Sexual And Partner Relationships With increasing early conduct problems there were increases in rates of sexual risk taking, early pregnancy/parenthood, and inter-partner violence.

9. Covariate Adjustment These associations persisted after control for confounding factors and were evident for both males and females.

10. Major Conclusion These findings show the pervasive effects of early conduct problems on later development. It may be argued, plausibly, that no other common childhood condition has such pervasive and far reaching consequences for later development, as childhood conduct disorders.

11. The Prevention and Treatment of Childhood Conduct Problems In the last two decades there has been an explosion of research using randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that have tested the extent to which various interventions are effective in the prevention and treatment of conduct problems in childhood and adolescence.

12. The Importance of RCTs The role of RCTs in public and social policy has been controversial with recurrent claims that RCTs are unethical, inappropriate and can be replaced by alternative methodologies using qualitative and observational methods. These claims have not been substantiated and there is growing evidence to suggest that well conducted randomised trials are the most reliable method for establishing efficacy of interventions.

13. Effective Treatment Programmesfor 3-7 Year Olds

14. Effective Treatment Programmesfor 8-12 Year Olds

15. Effective Treatment Programmesfor 13-17 Year Olds

16. A Proposed Menu of Interventions

17. Features of Successful Interventions Successful Programmes: • Use highly structured and manualised treatments. • Are based on social learning theory and/or cognitive behavioural psychology. • Are non punitive and seek positive behaviour change in parents, teachers and young people. • Address multiple risk factors across multiple contexts • Are designed to maximise fidelity of programme delivery.

18. What is Not on the List • Wilderness Programmes • Boot Camps • Mentoring • Restorative Justice At the present time most of New Zealand investment into adolescent programmes is concentrated in these areas.

19. The Need for Thorough Evaluation While the identification of a portfolio of effective programmes represents an important stage of policy developments, it is also important that new policy is thoroughly evaluated. The best approach to programme implementation is via the prevention science paradigm.

20. The Prevention Science Paradigm This requires that: i) Programmes are selected on the basis of evidence derived from reviews and meta- analyses ii) Adequate piloting is conducted to ensure programme acceptability and fidelity iii) Randomised trials are conducted to ensure programme efficacy at the new site iv) Programmes are progressively taken to scale with programme effectiveness being monitored

21. Positive Behaviour for Learning PBL marks the beginning of a paradigm shift in policy making for the management of conduct problems in the Education Sector. It is centred around developing three evidence based programmes for the treatment and management of childhood conduct problems. These programmes are: 1) The Whole School Programme based on the work of Professor Sugai and his colleagues 2) The Incredible Years Parent Programmes for 3-12 year olds 3) The Incredible Years Teacher Programme

22. Positive Behaviour for Learning (cont.) These programmes form a foundation of evidence based programmes for the treatment and management of conduct problems in early and middle childhood. In addition, structures are being put in place to evaluate the effectiveness and efficacy of the programmes. Specifically, a joint committee of Government agencies and University staff has been convened to develop evaluations of the proposed programmes.

23. Will these Interventions work for Māori? It is well documented that rates of conduct problems are higher amongst Māori. This raises the important issue of the extent to which “generic” programmes such as Incredible Years are effective for Māori. This is an issue on which opinions remain divided. While preliminary research has suggested that Incredible Years is effective for Māori and well regarded by Māori, it has been suggested that Te Ao Māori “By Māori for Māori” programmes may be more effective.

24. Will these Interventions work for Māori? (cont.) The Positive Behaviour for Learning policy addresses this issue robustly by making provision for both generic and Te Ao Māori perspectives. The long run consequences will be the development of a body of knowledge about the programmes that are effective for all young New Zealanders.