Micro-Simulation Modelling of Domestic Tourism in Sweden. KIRUNA. Anders Lundgren Dep. Geography, Umeå University. SVERIGE. S ystem for V isualizing E conomic and R egional I nfluences G overning the E nvironment
Dep. Geography, Umeå University
System for Visualizing Economic and Regional
Influences Governing the Environment
SVERIGE is a Microsimulation model based on microdata on the Swedish population
Socioeconomic data for ALL individuals
Micro = individual level
Microsimulation model - Simulation model that describes the behaviour of individual micro units and permits analysis of the impacts of the environment
Laboratory ”world” for testing policies
SVERIGE is dynamic and spatial
- What happens if we increase immigration?
80 000 immigrants
Base case – 60 000 immigrants
How many trips are done?
What do they do?
Where do people go?
Exchange of tourists between LA- regions
Managed by Åre marknadsfakta
24 000 interviews every year
Using 10 years
Densely populated areas are well represented
Domestic travel with at least one night away from home done at leisure time
To few observations to perform regressions analyses IF
you look at municipalities and each activity in TDB
Activity/purpose in TDB
Meeting friends and relatives
Visit second home
Piece and quiet/relaxation (Experience)
Pleasure and entertainment (Experience)
Community with others (Experience)
Skiing (Participate/be active in)
Sun&swimming (Participate/be active in)
Events (away 00-01)
Outdoor life (Participate/be active in)
Sports (Participate/be active in)
Course & meeting as leisure assignment
Cultural activity (Participate/be active in)
Cultural environment (Experience)
Rush and speed (Experience)
Prophylaxis, health care (Participate/be active in)
The two key factors that make tourism possible is access to money and leisure time
Age, gender, income and lifecycle are key factors that affect activity choice
Poisson regression for the number of trips – most people make 1 trip per month - 98% within 5 trips.
Multinomial logit regression for the choice between 10 activities
Interaction model used for destination choice
Compare calculated and observed number of trips from TDB
Interaction model estimated by using iteration and minimising misplaced flows
Distance is important for the activities VSH and sun/bath – people prefer to do that close to home.
Skiers and people who visits friends and relatives are less concerned about distance.
Multinomial logit regression for destination choice failed
”Empty” LA-regions – no observations
”Holes” in the data – system missing
More observations for individuals in sparsely populated areas
Purpose NOT mixed with activity
”Clean” the array of variables with respect to desired information
What about immigrants?
Improve ”visit second home” and ”social bond” activities by using SCB-data
Change in demand by running ”SVERIGE”
50 years forward
divorce, labour market, migration
Change supply – move central point of attraction
We model the flow of tourists between LA-regions
TDB explain choice of activities
An interaction model calculates the choice of place