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From DEMETER to EURO-SIP: The European Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction project Richard Graham

From DEMETER to EURO-SIP: The European Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction project Richard Graham acknowledgements to DEMETER and EURO-SIP partners (Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)).

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From DEMETER to EURO-SIP: The European Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction project Richard Graham

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  1. From DEMETER to EURO-SIP: The European Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction project Richard Graham acknowledgements to DEMETER and EURO-SIP partners (Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)) NOAA 30th Climate Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, October 24-28th, State College, Pennsylvania

  2. Talk Outline • DEMETER project (EU FP5) – completed September 2003 • European seasonal multi-model system (hindcasts) • Application/impact models (crops, health) • forecast system sensitivity studies • EURO-SIP • operational real-time implementation of DEMETER • ENSEMBLES (EU FP6) • prediction/impacts seasonal to decadal (and longer) timescales • new representations of model and initial condition uncertainty • 5 year project, now one year in • Met Office European winter forecast 2005/06

  3. DEMETER system: 7 coupled global circulation models 6 installed at ECMWF The DEMETER multi-model ensemble system • 9 member ensembles • ERA-40 initial conditions • SST and wind perturbations • 4 start dates per year • 6 months hindcasts (GloSea) • Hindcast periods: • 1980-2001 (22yrs) – all models • 1959-2001 (43yrs) – 3 models

  4. DEMETER system: 7 coupled global circulation models Multi-model ensemble system: hindcasts CNRM (FR) ECMWF (INT) INGV (IT)LODYC (FR)MPI (DE)UKMO (UK) CERFACS (FR) 7 models x 9 ensemble members 63 member multi-model ensemble Feb 87 May 87 Aug 87 Nov 87 Feb 88 ...

  5. DEMETER system: 7 coupled global circulation models Multi-model ensemble system: hindcasts CNRM (FR) ECMWF (INT) INGV (IT)LODYC (FR)MPI (DE)UKMO (UK) CERFACS (FR) Feb 87 May 87 Aug 87 Nov 87 Feb 88 ...

  6. DEMETER system: 7 coupled global circulation models Multi-model ensemble system: hindcasts CNRM (FR) ECMWF (INT) INGV (IT)LODYC (FR)MPI (DE)UKMO (UK) CERFACS (FR) Feb 87 May 87 Aug 87 Nov 87 Feb 88 ...

  7. DEMETER system: 7 coupled global circulation models Multi-model ensemble system: hindcasts CNRM (FR) ECMWF (INT) INGV (IT)LODYC (FR)MPI (DE)UKMO (UK) CERFACS (FR) 63 member multi-model ensemble = 1 hindcast Feb 87 May 87 Aug 87 Nov 87 Feb 88 ...

  8. Results DEMETER Special Issue 2005 • Evaluation of DEMETER multi-model hindcast skill • Applications/impact models • Crop yield • malaria • Downscaling studies • Statistical & dynamical • Sensitivity studies • e.g. CGCM Vs AGCM Tellus 57A, No. 3, 21 contributions

  9. Brier skill score Reliability skill score=1-Rel/BSc Resolution skill score=Res/BSc Single vs. multi-model: Brier skill score‘basket’ of regions, start dates and leadtimes

  10. Impact of number of models on multi-model skill:Tropics, JJA precip, 1m lead: RPSS Multi-model realizations Single-model realizations

  11. Application models: wheat yield predictions for Europe DEMETER multi-model predictions (7 models, 63 members, Feb starts) of average wheat yield for four European countries (box-and-whiskers) compared to Eurostat official yields (black horizontal lines) and crop results from a simulation forced with downscaled ERA40 data (red dots). Germany France Greece Denmark From P. Cantelaube and J.-M. Terres, JRC

  12. Summary • DEMETER: proof of multi-model benefit using 7 coupled ocean-atmosphere models • More than a multi-model exercise…encouraging results for integration with application models • Mutual understanding between prediction and application communities – ‘end-to-end’ approach • Infrastructure and standardisation developed • coordination of model output content (with application partners) • model output formats and units (archiving at ECMWF). • downscaling techniques/experience • centralised model diagnosis/verification system at ECMWF • data download and plotting facility http://data.ecmwf.int/data/

  13. EURO-SIP real-time multi-model ensemble • Three models running at ECMWF: • Met Office: GloSea (version of HadCM3) (41-ensemble) • ECMWF: system2 (40-ensemble) • Météo-France – Arpège (41-ensemble) • Unified system with common development strategy • Products in development: • 2-model products available on Met Office website • ECMWF release of web products is expected soon

  14. Probability of precipitation – outer-quintile categories, GHACOF region, SON 2005 GloSea EURO-SIP (80 ensemble) P(well-above) Yellow/red: enhanced chance of category (relative to climatology) Blue: diminished chance White:near climatological probabilities P(well-below) based on 1987-2001 climatology

  15. Met Office (GloSea) ECMWF EURO-SIP multi-model Meteo-France Probability of lower temperature tercile category: NDJ 2005 (from September) Forecast is made available on the 15th of each month.

  16. Tropical Storms Forecasts starting on 1st June 2005: JASON ECMWF Met Office Obs 1st May- mid-Sep Météo-France Multimodel Atl W-Pac E-Pac Forecast No. = 18 Climatology = 11.6

  17. After DEMETER…ENACT: enhanced ocean assimilation EN2 QC’d dataset and objective analysis, 1956-2004 http://www.hadobs.org

  18. ENSEMBLES: seasonal to decadal & improved representing model uncertainties • 7 model multi-model installed at ECMWF - includes Met Office decadal forecast system (anomaly assimilation) - realistic GHGs, aerosols Met Office decadal forecast (DePreSys)

  19. ENSEMBLES: perturbed physics 2. Many models from perturbing physics parameters, eg. RHcrit for cloud formation (ref Murphy et al, 2004; and climateprediction.net) From Murphy et al, Nature 2004

  20. E(n) ENSEMBLES: stochastic physics 3. Stochastic ‘backscatter’ experiment (ECMWF) With CASBS Without CASBS E(n) n = spherical harmonic order missing energy Stochastic physics experiment with ECMWF system: Cellular Automaton Stochastic Backscatter Scheme (CASBS) From Tim Palmer, ECMWF

  21. Summary and plans • EURO-SIP: Real-time follow up to DEMETER • products becoming available • Meteo-France model fully implemented early 2006 • plans for model upgrades, convergence on the periods and ensemble size of hindcasts • ENACT: • enhanced ocean data assimilation – ocean ‘reanalyses’ • QC’d ocean data and objective analyses • ENSEMBLES: • builds on DEMETER and ENACT • seasonal to decadal timescales (and longer) • further investigations of model uncertainties • calibrating and combining model ensembles

  22. Met Office forecast: European winter 2005/06 NAO index: difference between normalised pressure anomaly Azores - Iceland Empirical NAO prediction Rodwell & Folland, 2002 Predicts correct sign in 2 out of 3 winters N. Atlantic May SST anomaly associated with +ve NAO N. Atlantic May SST anomaly 2005

  23. September surface and sub-surface anomalies and GloSea prediction SST anomalies actual normalised GloSea prediction from September 60-90m anomalies

  24. Thank you! additional slides follow

  25. EURO-SIP real-time multi-model ensemble • Met Office (GloSea2) • Modified HadCM3 • Atmos. 2.5° x 3.75° x 19L • Ocean (1.25° to 0.3°) x 1.25° x 40L • 41 ensemble members (from mix of windstress and SST perturbations) • Hindcast: 1987-2001, 15 members • ECMWF (system2) • Atmos. TL95L40 • Ocean (1.0° to 0.3°) x 1.0° x 29L • 40 ensemble members • Hindcast: 1987-2001, 5 members • Meteo-France • Atmos. Arpège TL63L31 • Ocean: ORCA (2.0° to 0.5°) 31L • 41 ensemble members (mix of 5 ocean analyses and 8 lagged atmos) • Hindcast: 1993-2003, 5 members

  26. Parameter Perturbations Large Scale Cloud • Ice fall speed • Critical relative humidity for formation • Cloud droplet to rain: conversion rate and threshold • Cloud fraction calculation Boundary layer • Turbulent mixing coefficients: stability-dependence, neutral mixing length • Roughness length over sea: Charnock constant, free convective value Convection • Entrainment rate • Intensity of mass flux • Shape of cloud (anvils) • Cloud water seen by radiation Dynamics • Diffusion: order and e-folding time • Gravity wave drag: surface and trapped lee wave constants • Gravity wave drag start level Radiation • Ice particle size/shape • Sulphur cycle • Water vapour continuum absorption Land surface processes • Root depths • Forest roughness lengths • Surface-canopy coupling • CO2 dependence of stomatal conductance Sea ice • Albedo dependence on temperature • Ocean-ice heat transfer

  27. Met Office seasonal/multi-annual/decadal runs *Later HadGEM Model GloSea (HadCM3*) DePreSys (HadCM3) Current oper. range Seasonal (6months) decadal Hindcasts pre-production period: 1991 - 2001 GloSea: ->7m: 1st/15th May/Nov 1st June/Dec ->14m: 1st May/June/Nov/Dec -> 10y: 1st May 1964, 1994 DePreSys: -> 10y: 1st May/Nov (all years) assimilation method Conventional (OI type) calibrated anomalies 9-ensemble experiments 1991-2001 pert. ODA pert. phys. pert. phys. lagged avge lagged avge

  28. Multi-model evaluation:Niño3.4 SST anomaly: ASO at 3m lead: Correlation: Multi-model = 0.83 Best single model = 0.81 http://www.ecmwf.int/research/demeter/d/charts/verification/

  29. GloSea development and response to North Atlantic SST ‘tri-pole’ pattern: spring 1989 MAM 1989 Jan 89 HadAM3 (+ pers Jan SSTA) Feb 89 GloSea May 89 ERA40 HadISST GloSea

  30. ENSEMBLES system: 7 coupled GCMs running at ECMWF upgraded models from DEMETER (eg. using ENACT developments etc) ENSEMBLES: seasonal to interannual timescales (and longer); representing model uncertainties • 9-member ensembles • ERA-40 atmosphere and soil initial conditions • ENACT-based ocean initial conditions with SST and wind perturbations • 2 seasonal (7 months),1 annual (12-14 months) runs per year • Two multi-annual runs (1965, 1994) except 2 per year for DePreSys) • Realistic boundary forcings: GHGs, aerosols, solar forcing, etc. • Hindcast pre-production period: 1991-2001; later 1960-2001

  31. Sensitivity studies: AGCM Vs CGCMNov. start for FMA (3-month lead) ROC Skill for 2m temperature, upper tercile HadAM3 (2-tier) GloSea (1-tier) Much improved GloSea skill in tropical (south) Atlantic and Indian ocean, from representation of lagged responses to ENSO.

  32. Met Office decadal forecast system (DePreSys):Forecast of global annual mean Ts • Predict 0.36+/-0.23o C (5-95%) warming for the coming decade • Unless a major volcanic eruption occurs! • Uses ‘anomaly assimilation’ (seasonal-range skill very competitive!)

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