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Studies Work Group : 2020 Base Case Resource Additions. Thomas Carr August 5, 2010 Studies Work Group Call. Big Picture: 5 Step Process. Load Assumptions BA load forecasts converted to states/provinces State/province adjusted load forecasts for DSM RPS renewable energy requirements

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Studies work group 2020 base case resource additions

Studies Work Group: 2020 Base Case Resource Additions

Thomas Carr

August 5, 2010

Studies Work Group Call


Big picture 5 step process
Big Picture: 5 Step Process

  • Load Assumptions

    • BA load forecasts converted to states/provinces

    • State/province adjusted load forecasts for DSM

  • RPS renewable energy requirements

    • Identify RPS statutes/regulations

    • Derive total RPS energy targets

  • Specifying the renewable portfolio

    • IRP survey by LBNL

    • Derive the IRP incremental renewable portfolio

    • Apply CA CPUC/RETI renewable portfolio for CA

  • Loads and resource balance

    • Incremental analysis

    • Subregional analysis

  • Thermal generation portfolio

    • Start with existing and under construction generation (Categories 0 & 1)

    • Add thermal generation to ensure L&R balance

      • IRP incremental thermal generation

      • Category 2 generation


Topics
Topics

A. Resource selection

  • Update RPS calculations

  • Update on the LBNL IRP review

  • IPR incremental renewable portfolio

  • Update on CA PUC 2020 modeling/renewables

    B. Load & Resource Balance Check

  • Incremental analysis initial findings

  • Subregional model initial findings



Update on loads rps
Update on loads & RPS

  • Loads

    • Recent updates to BPA and others – not reflected in the spreadsheet dated 7-29-10

    • State/Provincial adjusted loads for DSM policies -- waiting for final decisions

  • RPS

    • July 20 request to SPSC for review of RPS assumptions

      • Corrections from AZ and CO

      • Sign off on from NM, WA


Lbnl irp review
LBNL IRP Review

  • LBNL reviewed 13 IRPs by early June

  • Resource Planners’ Forum presentation June 21

  • LBNL sent out follow up letter with follow up questions to 27 LSEs with

  • Pete Larson collected responses and created spreadsheet detailing utility IRP/plans generation additions and retirements




Irp incremental renewable portfolio
IRP Incremental Renewable Portfolio

  • Spreadsheet created with IRP renewable capacity (MW) additions by state/province

  • Derive energy (MWh) additions from capacity using capacity factors from WREZ model

  • Sum renewable energy (MWh) additions by states/province

  • Derive % that IRP renewables contribute to RPS incremental requirement for each state

  • Accounting for renewables in non-RPS state/provinces

    • WY – PacifiCorp delivers to UT and OR

    • ID – IPC sells RECs

    • BC – self sufficiency policy with export potential

    • AB – no IRP data, market structure with export potential


Ca puc modeling renewables
CA PUC Modeling/Renewables

  • “Trajectory” Scenario for 2020


Load resource balance check
Load & Resource Balance Check

  • Shift our thinking away from identifying a “gap” with precise quantification of MWs needed 10 years out

    • Our tools are imprecise to quantify “gap”

    • Use our tools to identify a range of reasonableness for a loads and resource balance

  • Tools

    • Incremental analysis

    • SubregionalModel


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