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Studies Work Group : 2020 Base Case Resource Additions

Studies Work Group : 2020 Base Case Resource Additions. Thomas Carr August 5, 2010 Studies Work Group Call. Big Picture: 5 Step Process. Load Assumptions BA load forecasts converted to states/provinces State/province adjusted load forecasts for DSM RPS renewable energy requirements

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Studies Work Group : 2020 Base Case Resource Additions

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  1. Studies Work Group: 2020 Base Case Resource Additions Thomas Carr August 5, 2010 Studies Work Group Call

  2. Big Picture: 5 Step Process • Load Assumptions • BA load forecasts converted to states/provinces • State/province adjusted load forecasts for DSM • RPS renewable energy requirements • Identify RPS statutes/regulations • Derive total RPS energy targets • Specifying the renewable portfolio • IRP survey by LBNL • Derive the IRP incremental renewable portfolio • Apply CA CPUC/RETI renewable portfolio for CA • Loads and resource balance • Incremental analysis • Subregional analysis • Thermal generation portfolio • Start with existing and under construction generation (Categories 0 & 1) • Add thermal generation to ensure L&R balance • IRP incremental thermal generation • Category 2 generation

  3. Topics A. Resource selection • Update RPS calculations • Update on the LBNL IRP review • IPR incremental renewable portfolio • Update on CA PUC 2020 modeling/renewables B. Load & Resource Balance Check • Incremental analysis initial findings • Subregional model initial findings

  4. Loads & RPS energy targets

  5. Update on loads & RPS • Loads • Recent updates to BPA and others – not reflected in the spreadsheet dated 7-29-10 • State/Provincial adjusted loads for DSM policies -- waiting for final decisions • RPS • July 20 request to SPSC for review of RPS assumptions • Corrections from AZ and CO • Sign off on from NM, WA

  6. LBNL IRP Review • LBNL reviewed 13 IRPs by early June • Resource Planners’ Forum presentation June 21 • LBNL sent out follow up letter with follow up questions to 27 LSEs with • Pete Larson collected responses and created spreadsheet detailing utility IRP/plans generation additions and retirements

  7. Generation additions

  8. Retirements

  9. IRP Incremental Renewable Portfolio • Spreadsheet created with IRP renewable capacity (MW) additions by state/province • Derive energy (MWh) additions from capacity using capacity factors from WREZ model • Sum renewable energy (MWh) additions by states/province • Derive % that IRP renewables contribute to RPS incremental requirement for each state • Accounting for renewables in non-RPS state/provinces • WY – PacifiCorp delivers to UT and OR • ID – IPC sells RECs • BC – self sufficiency policy with export potential • AB – no IRP data, market structure with export potential

  10. CA PUC Modeling/Renewables • “Trajectory” Scenario for 2020

  11. Load & Resource Balance Check • Shift our thinking away from identifying a “gap” with precise quantification of MWs needed 10 years out • Our tools are imprecise to quantify “gap” • Use our tools to identify a range of reasonableness for a loads and resource balance • Tools • Incremental analysis • SubregionalModel

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