1 / 13

N O T E

N O T E. If the slide show is not launched, click on View  Slide Show in the menu bar at the top of the Power Point window. When the View option is not visible, the slide show has been launched and you must click to proceed to the next slide. “CLICK” TO CONTINUE…. U S I N G.

thais
Download Presentation

N O T E

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. N O T E If the slide show is not launched, click on View  Slide Show in the menu bar at the top of the Power Point window. When the View option is not visible, the slide show has been launched and you must click to proceed to the next slide. “CLICK” TO CONTINUE…

  2. U S I N G R I S K P L U S “CLICK” TO CONTINUE…

  3. U S I N G R I S K P L U S All Risk + functions are accessed from within MS Project 2000. To begin using Risk +, launch MS Project 2000. (For a reminder about how to launch and use MS Project, return to Module 3 Tools and review the MS Project 2000 tutorial.) If the Risk+ software has been installed on your computer, you will see the Risk Analysis Menu and the Risk Analysis Toolbar. To ensure consistency throughout this lesson, we will always access the Risk Analysis Menu. However, as you become more familiar with Risk+, you may want to use the toolbar as a shortcut for some functions. “CLICK” TO CONTINUE…

  4. U S I N G R I S K P L U S Five Steps for Using Risk+ I. Plan your project In order to use Risk+ you must have a project plan prepared in MS Project 2000. The plan should have a complete critical path network in to achieve meaningful risk analysis results. II. Select tasks for detailed analysis Risk+ will collect and generate detailed statistical information for tasks you identify in this step. Typically, only the key or high risk tasks are analyzed, rather than analyzing all the tasks in the project plan. III. Enter risk parameters You must enter minimum, most likely, and maximum duration and cost information for each program activity (low level task). Additionally, you must specify the relative likelihood of outcomes within each range. IV. Run the risk analysis program In this step, you tell Risk+ what analyses to perform, and how many possible outcomes to examine before generating its results. V. Review risk analysis results Risk+ generates a variety of graphical reports (histograms) which you can use to evaluate the effects of risk on your project. “CLICK” TO CONTINUE…

  5. U S I N G R I S K P L U S I. Plan your project in MS Project 2000 What happens during this step? Risk+ minimizes MS Project and calculates a minimum value, maximum value, and probability distribution curve for each lowest-level task. Open the demo.mpp project plan, which is located at C:/CSSI6/Riskp20/demo.mpp. Use the menu path > Risk Analysis > Initialize Most Likely The appearance of the screen may change, but you will not see a difference in the data. “CLICK” TO CONTINUE…

  6. U S I N G R I S K P L U S II. Select tasks to be analyzed. Use the mouse to highlight a task. Use the menu path > Risk Analysis > Risk Entry Form Enter values for Minimum, Most Likely and Maximum remaining duration and cost. Select Reporting Task so that Risk + knows to analyze this task. Select Preview Task if you want to display progress information for this task during the simulation run. Select distribution curvesfrom the Curve drop-down list. Click <Next> to enter advance to the next task in the plan. Repeat steps 3-6 to designate additional reporting tasks or to designate a different task as a preview task. When finished, click <Close>. What happens during this step? When you run the Monte Carlo simulation (step IV), Risk + will generate histograms (reports) for each Reporting task you selected in this step. While the simulation is processing, Risk + will show statistics for the Preview task that you selected in this step. Ideally, the Preview Task is a summary task of the total project. “CLICK” TO CONTINUE…

  7. U S I N G R I S K P L U S III. Enter risk parameters. What happens during this step? Quick Setup automatically set risk parameters for the tasks that are to be analyzed. These parameters may be refined by using the Global Edit. (see next page) … continued on next page Use the menu path > Risk Analysis >Quick Setup. Select High, Medium or Low Confidence. Click <OK>. “CLICK” TO CONTINUE…

  8. U S I N G R I S K P L U S III. Enter risk parameters. (continued) To refine the parameters you just set, you may use one or both of the following: Global Edit Use the mouse to highlight a task. Use the menu path > Risk Analysis > Global Edit Enter a % in the Set minimum to most likely field. Enter a % in the Set maximum to most likely field. In the Apply to section, Select Entire Project or Selection. In the Curve section, select a distribution curve. Click <OK>. Click <Next> to enter advance to the next task in the plan. Repeat steps c-d to designate additional reporting tasks or preview task. When finished, click <Close>. … continued on next page “CLICK” TO CONTINUE…

  9. U S I N G R I S K P L U S IV. Run the risk analysis program. Use menu path > Risk Analysis > Risk Analysis. Enter the number of Iterations that you want the Monte Carlo simulation to perform during the risk analysis. In the Options section, select the analysis reports that you wish to see: Sensitivity Analysis Duration Analysis Critical Path Analysis Cost Analysis Click <OK>. What happens during this step? Risk+ will initialize risk data and display the Risk Analysis Status screen. The information displayed during the risk analysis simulation is for the Preview Task you selected in step II. Completion date, summary statistical information, and progress status are updated at each iteration. You may terminate the simulation at any time by selecting the Cancel button with the mouse, using the Alt-C shortcut key, or pressing the Enter key. CAUTION: Do not use the ESC key to terminate the simulation! If you press the ESC key Project will interrupt Risk+ before it has a chance to restore your durations to their original values. If you inadvertently press the ESC key, select the Continue button in the dialog box which will be displayed, then terminate the simulation as described above. “CLICK” TO CONTINUE…

  10. U S I N G R I S K P L U S V. Analyze the results. • A legend at the top left giving information about the run • A legend at the top right giving summary statistical information about the figure • A histogram in the bottom left displaying the results of the run • A tabular view of the S-shaped cumulative probability curve in the bottom right If cost analysis was selected as an option during step IV, a cost analysis histogram will also be generated. ** See the next two slides for an example of a Completion Date Histogramand a Cost Analysis Histogram. The main output of the Risk + simulation is a histogram of completion dates for each Reporting Task. There are four main components to the histogram: “CLICK” TO CONTINUE…

  11. U S I N G R I S K P L U S Completion Date Histogram The Completion Probability Table shows various dates and the probability that the task will actually be complete by that date. “CLICK” TO CONTINUE…

  12. U S I N G R I S K P L U S Cost Histogram The Cost Probability Table shows the probability that the task will be completed for a certain cost. “CLICK” TO CONTINUE…

  13. U S I N G R I S K P L U S SAMPLE To print the PowerPoint slides, click on File  Print… You will then be prompted to choose your print options. Select them and click OK. “CLICK” TO CONTINUE…

More Related