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Projected Health Spending in 2020: $275 Billion Lower Than Pre-Reform Predictions

In 2020, U.S. health spending is projected to be $275 billion lower than pre-reform predictions, resulting in a cumulative reduction of $1.7 trillion from 2011 to 2020. This represents a decrease of 5.6% of GDP, with health spending comprising 19.8% of GDP in 2010, dropping to 19.9% in 2011. These projections are based on estimates by the CMS, initially from 2009, and revised after the enactment of health reforms in 2010 and 2011. The analysis reflects trends extrapolated from recent years, indicating significant fiscal impacts of healthcare reforms.

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Projected Health Spending in 2020: $275 Billion Lower Than Pre-Reform Predictions

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  1. Projected Health Spending in 2020 $275 Billion Lower Than Pre-Reform PredictionsCumulative Reduction of $1.7 Trillion over 2011–2020 −5.6% 19.8% of GDP 21.1% of GDP 19.9% of GDP Notes: * CMS projection as of February 2009 assuming no reform; ** CMS projection as of September 2010 after enactment of reform; *** CMS projection as of July 2011 after enactment of reform. Source: CMS spending projections from 2009, 2010, and 2011; Commonwealth Fund estimates extrapolating trends in last one to two years, assuming continuation of compounded annual growth rate.

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