Integrated Assessment of Health Risks of Environmental Stressors in Europe. INTA RESE. Uncertainty and quality in scientific policy assessment -introductory remarks-. Martin Krayer von Krauss, WHO/EEA. Introductions. Intarese contingent National public institutes Academia
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Martin Krayer von Krauss, WHO/EEA
Science with a twist!
Provide you with an understanding of:
LevelUncertainty: a 3 dimensional concept
See: Walker et al., (2003).
J. of Integrated Assessment, 4 (1): 5-17.
Risk = Probability x Consequence
Risk = Exposure x Effect
LevelLevel of Uncertainty (2nd dimension)
e.g. see Knight, 1921; Smithson, 1988; Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1990; Faber et al., 1992; Wynne, 1992; Schneider & Turner, 1994; ESTO, 2001.
= 0Statistical Uncertainty
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?Scenario Uncertainty
Scenario: resistance to antibiotics
The outcome is clear,
the probability of it occurring is unknown.
We know that we don’t know!
Consider the case of a scientist asked to assess the risks or the costs of BSE at the time of its discovery in 1986.
Any assessment would necessarily rely on a large number of assumptions, there would be no credible basis for the assignment of probabilities.
There would not even be a credible basis to claim that all of the potential outcomes of the BSE epidemic had been thought of.
Different levels of uncertainty call for different approaches to uncertainty assessment and management!