Supersymmetric Dark Matter in Light of Recent Results from LHC, Xenon100 and Fermi Data

1. Supersymmetric Dark Matter in Light of Recent Results from LHC, Xenon100 and Fermi Data LeszekRoszkowski* National Centre for Nuclear Research (NCBJ) Warsaw, Poland (On behalf of BayesFITS group) *On leave of absence from University of Sheffield Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

2. Outline • The big picture • Supersymmetric dark matter in the CMSSM • Impact of LHC 1/fb results • Impact of XENON100 limit • Prospects for DM direct detection search • Impact of FermiLATdSphs data • Prospects for DeepCore • Summary • Based on: • Fowlie, Kalinowski, Kazana, Roszkowski, Tsai (arXiv:1111.6098) • Roszkowski, Sessolo, Tsai (arXiv:1202.1503) Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

3. The Big Picture hep-ph/0404052 Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

4. Waiting for ``SUSY Spring’’ Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

5. Constrained Minimal SupersymmetricStandard Model (CMSSM) G. L. Kane, C. F. Kolda, L. Roszkowskiand J. D. Wells, Phys. Rev. D 49 (1994) 6173 figure from hep-ph/9709356 Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

6. Hide and seek with SUSY Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

7. Statistical approach Central object: Likelihood function Positive measurements: Limits: • Smear out bounds. • Can add theory error. Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

8. Bayesian statistics Bayes theorem: • Prior: what we know about hypothesis BEFORE seeing the data. • Likelihood: the probability of obtaining data if hypothesis is true. • Posterior: the probability about hypothesis AFTER seeing the data. • Evidence: normalization constant, crucial for model comparison. If hypothesis is a function of parameters, then posterior becomes posterior probability function (pdf). Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

9. Hide and seek with SUSY Limits Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

10. LHC: Currently best limits from CMS Last week: limits from 4.4/fb http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1430715 twiki.cern.ch/twiki/bin/view/CMSPublic/PhysicsResultsSUS Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

11. Reproduce alpha_T limit • Poisson distribution to characterize counting experiments.  • CMS alphaT 1.1/fb • 95% lower limit • SUSY events: generate MC simulations. • Apply the same kinematical cuts as CMS. • Obtain approximate efficiency and likelihood maps. (arXiv:1111.6098) VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CMS 95% LIMIT! LeszekRoszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

12. Numerical scans • Perform random scan over 4 CMSSM +4 SM parameters simultaneously • Use Nested Sampling algorithm to evaluate posterior • Very wide ranges: Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

13. Impact of CMS alpha_T limit on CMSSM (arXiv:1111.6098) Before LHC (1/fb) After LHC (1/fb) A-funnel Staucoannihilation FP/HB h-funnel • Favored (high posterior) regions (staucoan., A-funnel) are pushed up. • Light Higgs funnel region is excluded. • Focus point/horizontal branch region gets enhanced and pushed out. Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

14. Impact on DM direct detection XENON(2011) limit not applied (arXiv:1111.6098) • LHC limit pushes sigma_p down, mostly below XENON100 limit. • One-tonne detector reach: • sigma_p~2x10^-11 pb. One will need 1 tonne DM detectors to probe favored ranges. LeszekRoszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

15. Impact of XENON100 limit • Add XENON100 90%CL • LHC alpha_T limit: already strong impact on CMSSM, sigma_p • Error on evaluating sigma_p is ~ factor of 10: • Local density ~2 • Hadronic matrix elements ~5-10: Weak effect. Mostly in focus point region. arXiv:0801.3656 LHC limits on CMSSM are stronger LeszekRoszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

16. Extend CMSSM scan to FP/HB Our Likelihood maps allow us to go beyond the regime of published alphaT limit. Big high posterior probability region in focus point/hyperbolic branch region. Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

17. Impact on Direct Detection of DM Wider scan (m_0<4 TeV) Narrower scan (m_0<2 TeV) • Add XENON100 Currently XENON100 explores FP/HB region. But, because of large theory error, it cannot really constrain it! Reducing theory error to tau=1 almost no effect. Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

18. Impact of FermiLATdSph gamma arXiv:1108.3546 • Add FermiLATdSph 90%CL limit • FermiLAT assumed NFW Allowing DM profile to vary strongly weakens the impact. Conclusions rather strongly depend on assumed halo profile. If NFW  generic DM profile, then FermiLAT gamma limit has almost no effect. Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

19. arXiv:1108.3546 SUSY: <sigma v> will be hard to constrain. Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

20. CMSSM DM: Prospects for DeepCore IceCube contained events: slightly worse. DeepCore will rule out WW annihilation channel. DeepCore will be sensitive to FP/HB region. Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

21. Summary • With 1.1/fb at LHC: improved limits on SUSY particle masses. • Our Bayesian analysis includes all relevant constraints via likelihood function. • The CMSSM has become severely constrained but not excluded. • Constraints from direct detection of dark matter are currently weaker than from LHC even in the FP/HB region, due to large theoretical uncertainties. • Prospects for direct detection of DM: need 1 tonne targets. • FermiLAT’s diffuse gamma-radiation data from dSphs probe FP/HB region. Impact depends on assumed halo profile. • DeepCore will also be sensitive to the FP/HB region. Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

22. Backup Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

23. Biggest challenges to the CMSSM • Light Higgs Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond

24. SUSY DM before and after LHC(1/fb) Before LHC After LHC(1/fb) XENON(2011) (not applied) arXiv:0705.2012 with updates Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond