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CREATE A National Center of Excellence

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  1. CREATE A National Center of Excellence Stephen Hora, Director The National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events University of Southern California

  2. The First Homeland Security Center of Excellence • “…establish a coordinated, university-based system to enhance the Nation's homeland security.” • Funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security • Based at the university of Southern California • CREATE is now in its 8th year of operation • 200+ projects • 1250 research papers • 230 students trained

  3. CREATE Research Team

  4. Faculty &Students Dept. of Homeland Security Agencies and Businesses Outreach Risk & Decision Operations Research Education Economics Research

  5. USSR SA-7 --- 1968 MANPADS – Surface to Air Missiles US REDEYE --- 1967

  6. Alternatives • Status Quo • Countermeasures • Infrared jammers • Flares • Hardening airplanes • Perimeter control

  7. MANPADS – Solved Decision Tree

  8. Life-Cycle Cost = 30 billion

  9. ARMORAssistant for Randomization for Monitoring over Routes

  10. Canine Mobile Anti-Terrorism Strike (CMATS) Team

  11. Port Security

  12. Tactical Usage: Port Security Officer Optimize Available Here Calculated Risk for the Highlighted Region List of Available/Used Countermeasures/Resources Resources Assigned to the Highlighted Region Resource Allocation Options Critical Regions Color Coded to Reflect Calculated Risk 15

  13. Seattle News Cast

  14. Seattle Anthrax Study • What decisions do people make? • What factors do they pay attention to? • How can we better communicate? • How is fear transmitted and amplified? • What are the long run impacts? • How can we build resilience?

  15. The Urban Security Project

  16. Lower Manhattan • Wall Street • World Trade Center Site • Downtown Los Angeles • Staples Center

  17. Potential Portfolios of Security Measures Tradeoff (indifference curve) Risk Intolerant Economic Activity Risk

  18. Potential Portfolios of Security Measures Economic Activity Risk