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Academy #8 Technical Analysis Speakers: Charles & Daniel. Get connected to B&R Beurs @. Introduction. Charles-Antoine Bory Board member + chairman Audacity Swiss: good with other people’s money Many years of investment experience Daniel Göttmann Chairman STCM

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academy 8 technical analysis speakers charles daniel
Academy #8

Technical Analysis

Speakers: Charles & Daniel

Get connected to B&R Beurs @

introduction
Introduction
  • Charles-Antoine Bory
    • Board member + chairman Audacity
    • Swiss: good with other people’s money
    • Many years of investment experience
  • Daniel Göttmann
    • Chairman STCM
    • German: paying the bill in a few years
    • Many years of investment experience
content
Content
  • Introduction
  • Volatility
  • Charts
  • Basic patterns
  • Trend indicators
  • Momentum indicators
  • Advanced chart patterns
  • Links
  • Conclusion
what is technical analysis
What is technical analysis?
  • Graphical analysis
  • “In finance, technical analysis is a security analysis discipline used for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume.” Wikipedia
  • Technical analysis is more concerned with finding cues about the market micro structure!
  • Belief that the historical performance of stocks and markets are indications of future performance.
technical vs fundamental
Technical vs Fundamental
  • Never forgetyourfundamentalanalysis!
  • Use technicalanalysis as complement
  • Combinationis the key!
why is it important
Why is it important?
  • Identifying securities to buy/sell
  • Timing of buy and sell orders
  • Drawing in your professional life
volatility
Volatility
  • Volatility is a measure for the variation of the price of a financial instrument over time
    • Standard deviation
    • A higher volatility implies a riskier asset
    • Volatility varies over time
    • Volatility typically high in bear markets
volatility1
Volatility
  • Negatively correlated with price
volatility2
Volatility
  • Stocks: volatility goes up, as prices go down
  • Implication for options?
  • Want to trade volatility? Use the VIX
patterns support
Patterns: Support
  • Price level at which demand is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from declining further
patterns resistance
Patterns: Resistance
  • Price level at which selling it thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from rising further
patterns change in polarity principle
Patterns: Change in polarity principle
  • Resistance becomes support (and vice-versa)
patterns triple bottom
Patterns: Triple Bottom
  • Buy signal at (3)
patterns triple top
Patterns: Triple Top
  • Sell signal at (3)
trend sma3
Trend: SMA
  • Golden Cross: fast moving average crosses slow moving average from below
    • Buy signal!
    • Typically comes with high trading volumes
trend sma4
Trend: SMA
  • Dead Cross: fast moving average crosses slow moving average from top
    • Sell signal!

\\

trend bollinger bands
Trend: Bollinger Bands
  • 1 movingaverage (e.g. 20 days) +/- 1 standard deviation
  • Bands as support/resistance
  • Adjusts to market conditions
  • Contains ~88% of pricemovements
trend macd
Trend: MACD
  • MovingAverage Convergence Divergence
  • MACD=12d EMA – 26d EMA, 9d EMA (signal line)
  • Trend + momentum
  • Crossover
slide29

Momentum: RSI

  • Relative Strength Index
  • 0<RSI<100
  • RSI>70 => overbought (=> sell)
  • RSI<30 => oversold (=> buy)
slide30

Momentum: Stochastic Oscillator

  • Similar to RSI
  • Used to forsee reversal
  • 20<STO<80
slide31

Momentum: other

  • Rate of Change (ROC)
  • Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
  • StochRSI
  • TIX
  • Ulitmate Oscillator (ULT)
  • Aroon

[…]

patterns head shoulder
Patterns: Head & Shoulder
  • Most reliable trend-reversal pattern
    • Detectable by volume peaks
    • Rises to a peak and subsequently declines.
    • The price rises above the former peak and again declines.
    • Price rises again, but not to the second peak, and declines once more.
patterns triangles
Patterns: Triangles
  • Ascending
  • Descending
  • Use a price range
slide37

Volume

  • The more volume the better
    • Lower transaction costs (bid-ask spread)
slide42

Recommended websites

  • Investopedia.com
    • To lookup easy definitions
  • Bloomberg.com
    • Click on “Index Chart” -> “Overlay” / “Indicators”
  • Stockcharts.com
    • Perform technical analysis easily
    • Explanation for each indicator
    • All indicators available
  • Chartgame.com
    • Test your knowledge and predictions!
slide43

Conclusion

  • Always combine many indicators at the same time
    • Avoid multicollinearity
    • E.g. Candle sticks + Volatility + Volume + SMA + MACD + RSI
  • Focus on liquid stocks
  • Always use it as a complementary tool to fundamental analysis
  • Now, impress your investment group!
thank you for your attention
Thank you for your attention!
  • Next B&R Beurs events:
    • 13/12 at 9pm: Social drink @ Sus&Co
    • 15/12: Deadline ABN Amro Turbo Assignment
    • 10/01: New Year’s drink (Champagne!!)
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