State Economic and Budget Trends Impact on Local Governments Virginia Municipal League

1. State Economic and Budget Trends Impact on Local Governments Virginia Municipal League Fiscal Analytics, Ltd. July 23, 2014

2. * $439 mil. shortfall expected from adopted budget forecast

3. Expect 2014-16 Budget to Exceed Anticipated $1.55 Bil. Shortfall • FY 2014 GF revenue shortfall now $89 mil. lower than the $350 mil. shortfall anticipated in June. - Non-withholding income tax payments were the primary reason for the missed forecast. - Lower FY 14 GF revenue base will carry over into the 2014-16 biennium. • Fall re-forecast of GF revenues will likely further reduce payroll withholding growth expectations. - Withholding forecast will likely be lowered from about 4 percent growth to 2-2.5 percent annual growth in the 2014-16 biennium.

4. Despite 5 Years of U.S. Economic Recovery, • Federal Cutbacks Are Hurting Virginia’s Economic Recovery • In 2010, federal spending ($137 B total; $58B DoD) contributed approximately one-third of Virginia’s gross state product ($424 B). - VA ranked #2 in total per capita federal spending and#1 in per capita DoD spending in 2010. • From CY 2000-10 federal spending in VA grew 107% versus 60% in total Virginia’s gross state product. • In federal fiscal year 2013, federal spending* grew only 0.7 percent, with military spending declining7.2 percent. Thru April FFY 2014, total spending* has declined 0.5% with defense spending declining 5.3 percent. • Chmura Economics recently reported the DoD spent a total of $41.4 billion on direct operations and contracts in Virginia in 2013, down from $54.8 billion in 2012. * Not including interest on debt and GSE payments. 4 4 4 4

5. Virginia Payroll Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

6. Virginia Has a Much Higher Percentage of Professional and Business Service Jobs Than the Nation Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 6 6

7. Federal Cutbacks Have Resulted • in Low Job Growth and Fewer High-Paying Jobs Percent Change in Employment from a Year Ago Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

8. Virginia’s Replacement of High Paying With Low Paying Jobs Helps Explain Slow Growth in Wages and Tax Revenues (% of Total VA Employment) Health, Leisure, and Hospitality Professional and Business Services 8 8 8

9. High Paying Business and Professional Jobs Generate Significant Tax Revenue 9 9

11. Virginia Housing Starts Also Stuck in Low Gear Source: Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ/HaverAnalytics

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13. Source: http://www.dpb.virginia.gov/forms/20131216-1/BudgetDirectorsPresentation12-16-2013.pdf

14. Relative State Aid to Localities Still Declining in Adopted Budget 14 14

15. Includes GF, lottery profits, miscellaneous NGF, and state appropriated federal stimulus funds Source: http://www.doe.virginia.gov/school_finance/budget/calc_tools/index.shtml 15 15 15 15

16. Includes GF, lottery profits, miscellaneous NGF, and state appropriated federal stimulus funds adjusted by the CPI

17. State K-12 Policy Changes Adopted to Reduce Funding

18. Expect Local Education Costs to Continue Rising… • One Reason: Numbers of At-Risk Students Rising Sharply 18

19. …And At-Risk Students Cost More to Educate FY 16 Adopted Major At-Risk Student Programs - $414 M * FY 16 Adopted K-12 State Aid - $6,290 M *Includes state funds for SOQ Prevention, Intervention, Remediation, and Lottery-funded At-Risk, K-3 Class Size, VPI, Algebra Readiness, Early Reading programs 19 19

20. Other “Bills in the Drawer” Also Drive K-12 Costs • VRS teacher rates rise 24 percent from 11.66% to 14.5% in 2014-16 biennium. Expect rates of 15.5% in 2016-18 biennium and 17% in 2018-20 biennium as full phase-in of rates is completed. - Funded VRS status for teachers at end of FY 2013: 62.1% • Still no funding for Board of Education recommended revisions to the Standards of Quality (See Appendix).

21. Headwinds Remain for IncreasingState Support for Local-Administered Programs • How will the Virginia economy replace the loss of high paying business and professional jobs? GF revenue growth stalled out in FY 2014, and actually fell compared to FY 2013 collections. • Medicaid program continuing to grow faster than GF revenues. • Expect rising VRS rates for teachers and all state-supported employees • State incurs more GF debt service due to lack of a pay-as-you-go capital program (See Appendix). • More general funds for transportation scheduled.

22. Local Revenues Only Beginning to Grow Real Property Total Local Revenues 22

23. Tough Choices Continued • for Local Budgets in FY 2014 * 11 of 44 localities increased RE tax rates - 8 at rate greater than equalization 23 23 23 23 Source: Results from VML/VACO 2013 fiscal survey

26. Appendices

27. Virginia House Price Index—FHFA Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency/Haver Analytics 27

28. Virginia Board of Education Recommended, But Unfunded, Changes to the SOQ 28

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30. Virginia Is a Wealthy, Low Tax State, With Higher Reliance on Locality Taxes Source: Virginia Compared to Other States, JLARC, 2013 Edition

31. Virginia Spending Rankings • Reflect Tax Policies