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Arab Authoritarianism and Potential for Democracy: Factors and Implications

This lecture explores hypotheses on Arab authoritarianism, touching on religion, culture, rentier states, exogenous influences, economic and social factors. It delves into the potential causes of the Arab Spring and discusses future prospects for democracy in the region.

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Arab Authoritarianism and Potential for Democracy: Factors and Implications

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  1. Lecture 13GOVT S-1113

  2. Arab Authoritarianism: Hypotheses • RELIGION: Islam and democracy are incompatible • CULTURE: Arab patriarchy/tribal allegiances • RENTIER STATES: oil and patronage • EXOGENOUS: Western (esp. United States) foreign policy

  3. Economic Factors in the Arab World • Income inequality in/across states • Low relative GDP growth • Low export penetration (except for oil)/isolation from global markets • Late/stalled development • High unemployment, esp. among young males

  4. Social Factors in the Arab World • High unemployment/social frustration and anomie • Insularity of region/Arabic as common language • Arab/Israeli conflict • Colonial legacies • Weak nationalism/alternative ties (pan-Arabism, tribal, ummat al-Islamiyah) • Corrupt/kleptocratic/personalistic elites • Demographics/gender disparities

  5. Potential Causes of Arab Spring: • Reneging on ruling bargains • Youth bulge • Escalating food costs (esp. post 2008) • Illegitimacy of leaders/lack of popular representation • Demonstration effects • Propitious circumstances • Social media

  6. Tahrir Square, Cairo (9 Feb 2011)

  7. Sanaa, Yemen Protests

  8. Sirte, Libya (Gaddafi loyalists shell rebels)

  9. What Does the Future Hold?Is Democracy Inevitable Everywhere?

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