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U.S. & Western NY Economic Outlook. Commercial Planning & Analysis Department May 12, 2010. Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rate U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product. Trillions of Constant Q1:10 Dollars. Linked Qtr Annualized Percent Change 2009 Q1 -6.4%

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U.S. & Western NY Economic Outlook


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slide1

U.S. & Western NY Economic Outlook

Commercial Planning & Analysis Department

May 12, 2010

slide2

Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rate

U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product

Trillions

of Constant

Q1:10 Dollars

Linked Qtr Annualized

Percent Change

2009 Q1 -6.4%

Q2 -0.7%

Q3 2.2%

Q4 5.6%

2010 Q1 3.2%

The Big Picture:

The recession’s over, but output remains 1.2% below

the 2008 peak

$14.8

$14.6

Q1 Growth Drivers

Stronger consumer spending

+2.6 pts

Change in private inventories

+1.6 pts

Stronger investment in equipment & software

+0.8 pts

Stronger exports (gross)

+0.7 pts

$14.3

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

2006 2007 2008 2009 ‘10

slide3

Inflation-Adjusted Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Growth

Consumers Are Peeking Out of the Foxhole…

Real spending in March grew at fastest rate since Aug. 2007

2.9% average

since Jan 1990

RECESSION

RECESSION

RECESSION

2.4%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Mar

slide4

Industrial Production (R) Capacity Utilization (L)

Year-over-Year % Change

Seasonally Adjusted

U.S. Industrial Production - Manufacturing

Y-o-Y Chg

in Industrial

Production

Capacity

Utilization

Production

…While Manufacturers Are Easing Off The Brakes

As demand improves, factories are ramping up production

Source: Federal Reserve

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

slide5

Seasonally Adjusted

U.S. Unemployment Rate

But not enough to keep the jobless rate from remaining near a

26-year high…

RECESSION

RECESSION

9.9%

RECESSION

June ’92

7.8%

5.7% average

since Jan 1990

June ’03

6.3%

4.4%

Mar ‘07

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Apr

slide6

How’s Western NY

performing in this environment?

slide7

Relative Change in

Private Sector Employment Since January 2002

Western New York vs. United States

Less Boom, Less Bust…

Net Change From Employment Peak

United States -7.1 points

Western NY -3.6 points

Mar ’08

104.5%

United

States

Oct ’08

98.9%

97.4%

Western Portion of Upstate NY

(counties west of Utica-Rome metro area)

95.3%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Based on 12-month moving average employment

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ‘10

Mar

slide8

Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rate

Western Portion of Upstate NY vs. U.S.

9.9%

The regional jobless rate remains nearly two percentage points below the U.S. average

United

States

7.8%

(Mar)

Western

Portion of

Upstate

NY

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,

New York State Department of Labor NYS data seasonally adjusted by M&T

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

slide9

Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

Private Sector Employment Growth

Western Portion of Upstate NY vs. U.S.

WNY job losses are easing and remain below the U.S. average

Western

Portion of

Upstate

NY

-1.3%

-2.0%

United States

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

Mar

slide10

Year-Over-Year Percentage Change in Private Sector Employment U.S. States – First Quarter 2009 vs. 2010

Top 10 States

Alaska

North Dakota

New Hampshire

Vermont

Western Upstate NY

New York

Downstate NY

Iowa

Louisiana

Virginia

Illinois

Georgia

Wisconsin

Oklahoma

Arizona

Kansas

California

Colorado

Nevada

Wyoming

Bottom 10 States

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

-3.8%

-3.9%

-4.1%

-4.2%

-4.2%

-4.2%

-4.3%

-4.7%

-5.3%

-6.0%

0.7%

-0.2%

-1.0%

-1.5%

-1.7%

-1.9%

-1.9%

-2.1%

-2.2%

-2.3%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

slide11

Year-Over-Year Percentage Change in Private Sector Employment NYS Metro Areas – First Quarter 2009 vs. 2010

Utica-Rome

Buffalo

Syracuse

Albany

Poughkeepsie / Newburgh

New York City

Rochester

United States

Binghamton

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

slide13

Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

Private Sector Employment Growth

Buffalo Metro Area vs. United States

Job losses are easing and remain below the U.S. average

-1.1%

Buffalo

-2.0%

United States

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

slide14

Seasonally Adjusted

U.S. and Buffalo Area Unemployment Rate

United

States

9.9%

Like most upstate NY metros, Buffalo’s jobless rate remains below the U.S. average—and seems to be diverging from the national trend

8.0%

(Mar)

Buffalo

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,

New York State Department of Labor

Note: Buffalo data seasonally adjusted by M&T

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

slide15

Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

Existing Home Price Appreciation

Buffalo-Niagara Falls Metro Area vs. United States

United States

Why is Buffalo Doing So Well?

Local price appreciation has topped the U.S. norm since 2007—helping to insulate WNY from major swings in consumer spending

6th highest appreciation out of 299

Metro Areas measured in Q4 2009

Buffalo

1.8%

Note: Excludes homes financed with non-conforming loans

(subprime, I.O., jumbos, etc.); Includes refis

-4.7%

Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

slide16

Single Family Home Building

Permits Per 100,000 Residents

Buffalo vs. 100 Largest U.S. Metro Areas

100 Largest U.S. Metro Areas Buffalo-NF

Less Boom, Less Bust

WNY home builders avoided speculative over building, preventing a housing bubble from forming

* Based on 2008 population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

slide17

Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

Construction Employment

Buffalo Metro Area vs. United States

Net Result:

Construction job losses are less of a drag on the Buffalo economy

-0.6%

Buffalo

-11.3%

United States

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,

New York State Department of Labor

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

slide18

Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

Retail Trade Employment

Buffalo Metro Area vs. United States

Another Positive

As consumer spending stabilizes, retail hiring starts to rebound

3.6%

Buffalo

-1.2%

United States

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,

New York State Department of Labor

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

slide19

Year-Over-Year Percent Change in

Automobile Traffic Into U.S. via Four

Buffalo Area Bridges (Left Scale – RED)

Exchange Value of Canadian Dollar

Per U.S. Dollar (Right Scale – BLUE)

Stronger Canadian Dollar Lends a Hand…

Can. Dollar

Exchange

Rate In USD

Change in

Automobile

Crossings

Canadian

Dollar is at

Par with U.S.

Sources: Federal Reserve, Niagara Falls and Peace Bridge Commissions

2009 2010

slide20

Consumer Confidence

Buffalo Metro Area vs. United States

Index: 1996 Q1 = 100

A Long, Slow Climb Ahead

Confidence is slowly improving, but remains well below pre-recession levels

73.9

United

States

Buffalo

60.2

Sources: Siena Research Institute,

University of Michigan

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

slide22

Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

Private Sector Employment Growth

Rochester Metro Area vs. United States

Job losses are easing and remain below the U.S. average

Rochester

-1.8%

-2.0%

United States

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

slide23

Share of Total Private Sector Employee Compensation*

Health Care & Education Payroll Income

Rochester Metro Area vs. United States

A Nice Shock Absorber…

Health care & education are a major source of stability for the Rochester economy

23.0%

Rochester

1,800 net new jobs created

over the past 12 months (+1.8%)

15.9%

United States

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ‘09

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

* 4-Quarter running total

slide24

Share of Total Private Sector Employee Compensation*

Manufacturing Payroll Income

Rochester Metro Area vs. United States

…To Help Offset Factory Layoffs

Industrial payrolls continue to shrink, but remain a major income source

Rochester

6,100 net jobs lost

over the past 12 months (-9.3%)

22.3%

13.6%

United States

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ‘09

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

* 4-Quarter running total

slide25

Year-Over-Year Absolute Change

Rochester Area Job Gain/Loss – Q1 2010

Percentage

Change

1.6%

2.1%

-0.2%

-2.0%

-1.1%

-4.8%

-2.4%

-3.2%

-9.3%

Health Care Services

Private Education

Financial Activities

Construction

Retail (Ex. Food Stores)

Wholesale Trade

Leisure & Hospitality

Professional &

Business Services

Manufacturing

Manufacturing layoffs account for 71% of 2010 job losses, even though they make up just 12% of total employment

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

slide26

Total Private Sector Payroll Income

Rochester Metropolitan Area

Manufacturing vs. Education & Health Care

Billions

$3.8

Manufacturing

$3.7

Health Care

& Education

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ‘09

* 4-Quarter running total

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

slide27

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

NYS Manufacturing Activity Index

Index Numbers Above 0 = Expansion

Increase Decrease NET

2009 Oct 51.1% 17.6% +33.4

Nov 41.3% 19.0% +22.3

Dec 24.5% 20.0% +4.5

2010 Jan 33.1% 17.2% +15.9

Feb 41.6% 16.7% +24.9

Mar 43.3% 20.4% +22.9

Apr 47.5% 15.6% +31.9

31.9

Positive Outlook

NYS manufacturing activity (most of which is Upstate) is rising once again

2008 2009 2010

slide28

Manufacturing Share of

Gross Metropolitan Product - 2008

Upstate NY Metro Areas vs. United States

ROCHESTER

Buffalo

Binghamton

Syracuse

U.S. Metro

Area Average

Industrial Impact

Stronger factory output should provide a key boost to the Upstate NY economy during the second half of 2010

slide29

Inflation Adjusted 12-Month Running Total

County Sales Tax Collections in the

Rochester Metropolitan Area

Constant

March 2010

Dollars

(millions)

The New Normal?

With less consumer spending, real sales tax receipts have shifted downward by 8.5% since mid-2008

But are up 0.8% since November 2009

Monroe, Livingston, Ontario, Orleans & Wayne counties

Note: data are cash sales tax collections (excluding EFTs)

for county governments only—excluding cities

and school districts

Sources: NYS Department of Taxation & Finance,

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

$525

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

slide30

Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

Consumer Confidence

Rochester Metro Area vs. United States

Positive Outlook

Confidence is starting to improve, easing downward pressure on household spending

26.8%

14.5%

Rochester

United States

Sources: Siena Research Institute, University of Michigan

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

slide32

Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

Private Sector Employment Growth

Syracuse Metro Area vs. United States

A Recurring Pattern

Job losses have been less severe than the national norm

-1.2%

Syracuse

-2.0%

United States

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

slide33

Seasonally Adjusted

U.S. and Syracuse Area Unemployment Rate

United

States

9.9%

Consistent with other upstate metro areas, Syracuse’s jobless rate remains well below the U.S. average

8.0%

(Mar)

Syracuse

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,

New York State Department of Labor

Note: Syracuse data seasonally adjusted by M&T

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

slide34

Year-Over-Year Absolute Change

Syracuse Area Job Gain/Loss – Q1 2010

Percentage

Change

4.0%

1.7%

2.2%

3.5%

-1.9%

-8.8%

-5.9%

-5.8%

-6.1%

Private Education

Health Care Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Construction

Retail

Transportation

Wholesale Trade

Financial Activities

Manufacturing

Transportation & wholesale trade layoffs account for 37% of 2010 job losses, even though they make up just 7% of total employment

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

slide35

Percentage of Average Private Sector Jobs*

Health Care & Private Education Employment

Syracuse Metro Area vs. United States

Similar to Rochester

Evolving labor market insulates Syracuse economy

22.8%

Syracuse

17.9%

United

States

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics * 12-month moving average

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

slide36

Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

Construction Employment

Syracuse Metro Area vs. United States

Another Positive…

Building activity continues to support local economy

4.8%

Syracuse

United States

-11.3%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

slide37

Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

Wholesale Trade & Transportation Job Growth

Syracuse Metro Area vs. United States

…But Also a Negative

Local job losses remain well above the U.S. average

Syracuse

-2.7%

United States

-7.4%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

slide38

Consumer Confidence Index

Syracuse Metro Area vs. United States

Slowly Getting Back On Our Feet…

Consumer sentiment is improving — but will remain fragile until the jobless rate begins to shrink

United States

82.2

73.9

63.6

Syracuse

54.8

Sources: Sienna Research Institute, University of Michigan

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

slide39

Percentage of Average Private Sector Jobs*

State and Local Government Employment

Syracuse Metro Area vs. United States

Potential Storm Cloud

Will NYS budget woes hurt state & local employment levels?

21.1%

Syracuse

18.3%

United

States

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics * 12-month moving average

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

slide41

Economic Cycle Research Institute

U.S. Leading Economic Index

Indicates a turning point in the economic cycle when changes in the direction

of the index are persistent, pronounced, and pervasive over several months.

Designed to turn down before a recession and turn up before an expansion.

Index

1992 = 100

6-9 Month Outlook

Further growth appears to be on the horizon…

134.7

Index Components

Money supply (M2)

Commodity prices

Mortgage purchase applications

Corporate bond quality spread

NYSE Composite Index

Ten-year Treasury yield

Initial jobless claims

Weather-

related

dip

2007 2008 2009 ‘10

Apr 30

slide42

Institute For Supply Management

U.S. Manufacturing Activity Index

Index Numbers Greater Than 50 = Expansion

60.4

…led by a rebound in manufacturing, where activity expanded for the 9th consecutive month in April

"Manufacturers continue to see

extraordinary strength in new orders,

as the New Orders Index has averaged

61.6 percent for the past 10 months.”

“…signs for employment in the sector

continue to improve as the Employment

Index registered its fifth consecutive

month of growth.”

“…Overall, the recovery in manufacturing

continues quite strong, and the signs are

positive for continued growth."

Norbert Ore—ISM Business Survey Committee chairman

2007 2008 2009 2010

slide43

Inflation-Adjusted Percentage Change From Previous Quarter at Annualized Rate

Fixed Investment in Equipment &

Software by U.S. Businesses

Business Spending Takes the Lead

Capex is rebounding as firms move forward with necessary investments that were postponed over past several years

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

M&T Bank forecast

2007 2008 2009 2010

FORECAST

slide44

U.S. Household Debt Service Ratio

As a Percent of Disposable Income

Sobering Reality

Consumers will continue to repair battered balance sheets by saving & paying down debt for at least another year, keeping a lid on economic growth

Q1 2008

13.92%

Average

Since 1980

12.07%

12.60%

Source: Federal Reserve

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 09

Q4

slide45

Inflation-Adjusted Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

U.S. Personal Income Ex. Transfer Payments

Income Drag Persists

Ex. government payments, real income remained below year-ago levels for the 26th consecutive month

2.3% average

since Jan 1990

RECESSION

RECESSION

RECESSION

-0.6%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Mar

slide46

Months’ Supply of Available Homes

U.S. Single Family Homes For Sale

Existing Homes New Homes

Months Supply

At Current

Sales Rate

Jan:09

12.4

Housing Drag

The housing market will face significant pressure for at

least another year

as inventory levels remain well above historic norms

RECESSION

RECESSION

8.0

6.7

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NAR

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Mar

slide47

Seasonally Adjusted

U.S. Unemployment Rate Forecast

Labor Drag

The jobless rate will remain elevated for an extended period

10.0%

9.5%

8.9%

FORECAST

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, M&T estimates

2008 2009 2010 2011

slide48

Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rate

U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product

Trillions

of Constant

Q1:10 Dollars

Modest Recovery

The economy should expand by 3.0% in 2010 and by 3.1% in 2011—positive, but below historic norms

Linked Qtr Annualized

Percent Change

2010 Q1 3.2%

Q2 2.9%

Q3 3.0%

Q4 3.1%

2011 Q1 3.1%

Q2 2.9%

Q3 3.1%

Q4 3.2%

$15.4

$14.9

$14.8

FORECAST

$14.3

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, M&T estimates

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

slide49

Federal Government Expenditures

As a Percent of GDP

25.4%

2006 7.4%

2007 2.8%

2008 9.3%

2009 17.9%

2010 5.8%

2011 3.0%

Year-Over-Year

Spending Increase

25.1%

Uncle Sam Lends a Hand

Fiscal policy helps support 2010-11 growth— but what comes next?

CBO

FORECAST

Source: Congressional Budget Office

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 0708 09 10 11

Surplus/

Deficit as

% of GDP

0.8% 1.4% 2.5% 1.3% (1.5%) (3.4%) (3.5%) (2.6%) (1.9%) (1.2%) (3.2%) (9.9%) (10.6%) (8.3%)

slide50

Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

U.S. Pre-Tax Corporate Profit Forecast

Over Next 12 Months

A Critical Handoff

Business profits will have to continue rising to offset the stimulus wind down

2009 2010

slide51

Real GDP Growth Forecast by Region

2009 2010 2011

Source: International Monetary Fund,

April 2010

United States -2.4% 3.1% 2.6%

Canada -2.6% 3.1% 3.2%

Mexico -6.5% 4.2% 4.5%

Euro Zone -4.1% 1.0% 1.5%

China 8.7% 10.0% 9.9%

India 5.7% 8.8% 8.4%

World -0.6% 4.2% 4.3%

slide52

2010-11 Interest Rate Forecast

2009 2010 2011

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Fed Funds 0.12 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

3-Month LIBOR 0.27 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9

1-Year Treasury 0.35 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0

10-Year Treasury 3.46 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.8

30-Year Mortgage 4.92 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.3

Inflation – CPI 3.4 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0

slide53

Questions?

gkeith@mtb.com

slide54

Manufacturing (L) Non-Manufacturing (R)

Western NY* Private Sector Employment

Manufacturing

Jobs (000s)

Non-Manufacturing

Jobs (000s)

Job Growth Hokie Pokie

Factory job losses offset

gains in non-manufacturing employment

* Buffalo, Rochester &

Syracuse metro areas

Net Gain in

Non-Manufact. Jobs:

59,000 (+6.4%)

Net Loss in Manufacturing Jobs:

98,400 (-41.0%)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Data are 12-month moving averages

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

slide55

Relative Decrease in Manufacturing

Employment Since January 1999

Western New York vs. United States

Western NY factory employment has declined at a 4.7% annual rate since 1999—modestly faster than the 3.5% nation average decrease

R

ECESSION

Western NY*

R

ECESSION

United

States

-32.7%

* Buffalo, Rochester &

Syracuse metro areas

-41.0%

Data are 12-month moving averages

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

slide56

Manufacturing Share of Private Employment

Western & Downstate New York vs. United States

Despite the long-term decline in factory jobs, the WNY region still relies on manufacturing to a greater extent than the U.S. overall

* Buffalo, Rochester &

Syracuse metro areas

12.7%

10.9%

Western NY*

United

States

Downstate NY

4.0%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

slide57

Western New York vs. United States

Increase in Private Non-Manufacturing Jobs

Since January 2002

Western NY* United States

Tortoise vs. Hare…

Job growth outside the factory sector has been less volatile than for the U.S. overall

Increase

In Average

Number

Of Jobs

From Total

At Start of

2002

* Buffalo, Rochester &

Syracuse metro areas

2.2%

1.8%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ‘10

Mar

slide58

Western New York vs. United States

Increase in Professional & Business Services Jobs

Since January 2002

Western NY* United States

Opportunity #1

WNY has topped the U.S. growth rate over the past 6 years—can we continue to build on this progress?

Increase

In Average

Number

Of Jobs

From Total

At Start of

2002

8.4%

Net Gain: 12,700 jobs

* Buffalo, Rochester &

Syracuse metro areas

0.5%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ‘10

Mar

slide59

Western New York vs. United States

Increase in Private Education Employment

Since January 2002

Western NY

United States

Opportunity #2:

Job creation at WNY colleges & universities has also topped the U.S. norm—how can we leverage this advantage?

25.8%

Increase

In Average

Number

Of Jobs

From Total

At Start of

2002

22.8%

* Buffalo, Rochester &

Syracuse metro areas

Net Gain: 14,500 jobs

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ‘10

Mar

slide60

Western New York vs. United States

Increase in Private Health Care Services Jobs

Since January 2002

Opportunity / Challenge:

While health care has been a steady source of job creation, WNY has not kept pace with the national norm— can we ramp up growth with further investment in our medical sector?

22.7%

Increase

In Average

Number

Of Jobs

From Total

At Start of

2002

Western NY

United States

11.7%

* Buffalo, Rochester &

Syracuse metro areas

Net Gain:

19,700 jobs

Note: includes social services

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ‘10

Mar