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Jozsef Popp Director

Jozsef Popp Director. Research Institute for Agricultural Economics Budapest. „Long-term scenarios of development from the Hungarian point of view”. „Vision of long-term agricultural and rural development in the EU” May 25-26, 2006, Prague.

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Jozsef Popp Director

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  1. Jozsef Popp Director Research Institute for Agricultural Economics Budapest „Long-term scenarios of development from the Hungarian point of view” „Vision of long-term agricultural and rural development in the EU” May 25-26, 2006, Prague

  2. Outline • Agriculture’s place in the Hungarian Economy • Cereal production and consumption in Hungary • Development of livestock number in Hungary • Structural adjustment in the Hungarian agriculture • Concluding comments

  3. Agriculture’s place in the Hungarian Economy Source: Central Statistical Office, Hungary 2005 *Since 2002 together with agricultural investments of households

  4. Agricultural and food trade (1990-2005) Source: Research Institute for Agricultural Economics Budapest, 2006

  5. Planned expenditure in Hungary for agriculture and rural development (2004-2006) Source: Research Institute for Agricultural Economics Budapest, 2006

  6. Planned expenditure in Hungary for agriculture and rural development (2007-2013) Source: European Commission, 2006

  7. Area Payments granted for the EU-10 [SAPS + CNDP*]/ha (in EUR/ha) EUR/ha Source: DG AGRI, Country Reports *CNDP: from the national budget **Author’s estimate

  8. Production of major cereals in Hungary (1990-2005, with projections to 2010) Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office and results of modelling workat the Research Institute for Agricultural Economics Budapest (Based on the assumption that the SPS is introduced in 2007)

  9. Consumption and exports of wheat in Hungary (1990-2004) Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office

  10. Consumption and exports of maize in Hungary (1990-2004) Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office

  11. Development of pig numbers in Hungary (1990-2005, with projections to 2010) Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office and results of modelling work at the Research Institute for Agricultural Economics Budapest (Based on the assumption that the SPS is introduced in 2007)

  12. Development of broiler production in Hungary (1990-2005, with projections to 2010) Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office and results of modelling work at the Research Institute for Agricultural Economics Budapest (Based on the assumption that the SPS is introduced in 2007)

  13. Development of intervention stocks in Hungary (April, 2006 and 2010) A: Baseline (SPS from 2007) B: Intervention price -10% from 2008 C: No intervention from 2008 6 455 Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office and results of modelling work at the Research Institute for Agricultural Economics Budapest

  14. Cost of shipping cereals by different transport modes from Hungary to EU destinations/exits (2005) Source: Research Institute for Agricultural Economics Budapest, 2006

  15. Implementation of SPS in Hungary: planned EU expenditure in Hungary (2010) 16,8 % Regionalised flat-rate SPS National reserve Farm-specific top up (historical model) 78,5 % 17,7% Entitlements for new entrants Crop-specific payment Coupled support:option (non optional) 0,9 % 0,3 % 3,5 % Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office and results of modelling work at the Research Institute for Agricultural Economics (Based on the assumption that the SPS is introduced in 2007)

  16. Production structure of arable land in Hungary (2004) Implementation of the SPS in Hungary: projected production structure of eligible arable land (2010)* *No intervention Source: Results of modelling work at the Research Institute for Agricultural Economics Budapest

  17. ? Environment Food Safety Food Quality Nutrition Disease and Welfare Price Competitiveness Price Competitiveness ? Biotechnology New modelsof agricultural production Re-positioning agriculture in the knowledge economy Old CAP New CAP KNOWLEDGE FULCRUM WTO free trade: EU-high tech research programme

  18. Conclusions Progress towards the market: reforms yet to come • Decoupling is only partial • Set aside and milk quotas are still constraining those sectors • The days of market intervention are numbered (under unchanged conditions, 14 million tonnes of cereal stocks could be accumulated in Hungary by 2010) • Budget pressures are tightening • Market pressures and opportunities • Transition: • Important to have policies to facilitate adjustment of EU agricultural sector – competitiveness will be key • Key aspect is the re-skilling of labour (e.g. training for more market oriented producers) • Set a realistic timetable for long-term objective so that the necessary structural adjustment can be accomplished without unnecessary disruption

  19. Thank you for your attention

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