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How sensitive are certain industries in the Nordic?

How sensitive are certain industries in the Nordic?. An extended statistical analysis confirms the negative picture. Is the demand-curve of electricity showed in NEPs newsletter still valid ?. Or are there shifts on the y-axis – price changes of ind products etc

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How sensitive are certain industries in the Nordic?

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  1. How sensitive are certain industries in the Nordic? An extended statistical analysis confirms the negative picture

  2. Is the demand-curve of electricity showed in NEPs newsletter still valid? Or are there shifts on the y-axis – price changes of ind products etc or on the x-axis – growth in physical terms etc?

  3. Statistics before Finland 1990-2000 Industries on aggregate level Norway 94-96/98-00 Disaggregated level Sweden 90-96 & 00 Disaggregated level New statistics Finland 75-04 Still aggregate level Norway 93-03 Sweden 01-03 Now we investigate further with new statistics

  4. Electricity cost shares in Norway The electricity cost share differs a lot depending if the costs are divided with the sales or just the value added Value added Sales

  5. Electricity shares in Finland (sales) Higher electricity share imply lower electricity price that the industry is prepered to pay

  6. Electricity cost shares in Sweden(value added) Mechanical pulp or DIP

  7. Economic development for the metal industry in Finland 1975-2004 Beginning China boom Current price level

  8. Economic Development for the electricity intensive industry in the Nordic countries • Most electricity intensive industries show stagnation the last years => lower demand of electricity • Finnish pulp and paper is one exeption • The costs reflexes produced volumes => electricity demand • High inflation until the beginning of the 90ies => the real growth much less than in the diagramme • The sales also reflexes prices on the products sold by the industries

  9. Break even price What have we done? A) Tried to estimate at what electricity price various industries starts losing money (including investment costs) B) Used disaggregated statistics from as many years as possible until 2003

  10. Break even price SF: New problem for finnish paper&pulp industry Current price level Beginning of China boom Total losses Warning! Price level near Nord Pool

  11. Break even price NO 1 – Same problem as before

  12. Break even price NO 2

  13. Break even price SE 1 Al &Ferro: Could depend on increased importance of for exemple increased circulation of cans etc Minimum 3 companies in the statistics

  14. Break even price SE 2

  15. Economic development - SF

  16. Economic development - SE

  17. Economic development - NO

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