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Delve into the golf industry's status quo in 2012, focusing on demand, participation, rounds played, course supply, consumer confidence, and economic impact. Explore factors influencing the sector's recovery from the Great Recession and the significance of consumer spending. Evaluate the long-term trends in golf participation and rounds played, considering regional variations. Gain insights into golf supply versus demand dynamics, including courses/facilities openings and closures. Assess the impact of the economy on the golf industry's trajectory and the need for sustained consumer confidence and spending.
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Long-term Participation Trend Participants (MM) Source: NGF golf participation study - 1990 is a calculated average of 1989 and 1991
Participant Gains v. Losses Recessionary effect Participants (MM) Source: NGF golf participation study
Rounds played – 2012 (up 5.7% nationally) (% Change from previous year) New England (+3.2%) Mountain +7.0% W. N Central +7.6% E. N. Central +10.8% Pacific (+1.6%) Mid Atlantic (+10.1%) So. Atlantic (+2.4%) +2.0% or higher +1.9% to -1.9% -2.0% or lower So. Central (+5.0%) Source: Golf Datatech National Rounds Played Report in cooperation with PGA Performance Trak and the NGF.Based on a sample of approximately 4,000 reporting facilities
Rounds played – 2012 (Public Facility Concentration 2012 U.S.) West N Central (+7.6%) East N Central (+10.8%) Highlighted area contains almost half (47%) of the nation’s public golf facilities. Mid Atlantic (+10.1%) Source: Golf Datatech National Rounds Played Report and NGF golf facility database.
Course openings 18-hole equivalents Source: NGF Facility Tracking
Course closures 18-hole equivalents • 2012 Closures: • PUBLIC: 139.0 (90%) • Daily Fee: 130.5 (84%) • Municipal: 8.5 (6%) • PRIVATE: 15.5 (10%) • REAL ESTATE: 34.5 (22%, incl. both public and private) Source: NGF Facility Tracking
Net change in supply 18-hole equivalents Net Change = openings minus closures (in 18-hole equivalents) Source: NGF Facility Tracking
Rounds & golf course supply % Change in rounds (from previous year) (-3.0%) (-1.5%) (0.9%) (0.0%) (0.3%) (-0.6%) (-1.8%) (-0.6%) (-2.3%) (-2.5%) (5.7%) Rounds Per 18 hole equiv. Decade -12.1% Course Supply (18 hole equiv.) Decade +1.7% Source: NGF/Golf Datatech
Continued contraction in range supply 2012 We have seen very little change in the range size proportions since 2000:
Retail – 2012 snapshot 1,078 Doors 8.5 mm Sq. Ft.
Facility maintenance budget index (1) Excluding capital expenditures and water
Turf maintenance equipment YE = Year End MY = Mid Year
Consumer Confidence Index 90 = normal Index currently stands at 76.2 Through May 2013 Source: The Conference Board
Consumer spending May -13 $92 Source: Gallup
Consumer Spending Improving Real Personal Consumption Expenditure Index [Index numbers, 2005=100] Seasonally adjusted Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Recessionary Impact on Net Worth S&P 500 and Case-Shiller Home Value Indices Case-Shiller Home Value Index (year 2000 as 100) S&P 500 Index Source: S&P 500 / Case Shiller
Overall takeaways • Golf continues to slowly recover from the effects of the Great Recession • Outlook for 2013 is modestly – and cautiously– optimistic • Golf’s economic recovery remains dependent on the recovery of the overall economy and continued increases in consumer confidence and spending