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Severe Weather Briefing 1/24/2011 www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing. Keith Stellman Warning Coordination Meteorologist. National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana. Overview. Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday AM: Setup: Complicated Forecast!

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severe weather briefing 1 24 2011 www srh noaa gov shv briefing

Severe Weather Briefing1/24/2011www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing

Keith Stellman

Warning Coordination Meteorologist

National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

overview
Overview

Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday AM:

Setup:

Complicated Forecast!

Warm front surging northward from Gulf of Mexico

Surface low developing along TX coast and heading northeast

Upper level system drawing near should pull warm front north

Key in determining location of severe weather threat.

Impacts

Hail(elevated supercells behind the front)

Damaging Winds (ahead of the front the upper level system catches up)

Tornadoes(maximized threat east of surface low in vicinity of warm front)

National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

radar surface @ 1 pm
Radar/Surface @ 1 PM

Location of Warm

Front at 1 PM

National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

big picture satellite
Big Picture - Satellite

Current

L

6 AM

L

L

6 PM

Wed

slide5

Hail

Tornado threat maximized along and

south of warm front (but especially along)

Damaging Winds/Isolated Tornadoes

SPC slight risk area

hi res model wrf forecast radar instability
Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability
  • 3 PM Forecast (Today)
  • Showers and elevated thunderstorms surging north
  • Best instability remains south
hi res model wrf forecast radar instability1
Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability
  • 6 PM Forecast (Today)
  • Showers and elevated thunderstorms surging north
  • Possible small hail
  • Best instability remains south
hi res model wrf forecast radar instability2
Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability
  • 9 PM Forecast (Today)
  • Showers and elevated thunderstorms surging north into AR/OK
  • Possible small hail
  • Best instability remains south

Note that only light showers

will be possible in this area

hi res model wrf forecast radar instability3
Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability
  • 6 AM Forecast (Wed)
  • Line of showers developing along elevated front
  • Best instability remains south..but creeping into Deep East TX

Note that only light showers

will be possible in this area

hi res model wrf forecast radar instability4
Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability
  • Noon Forecast (Wed)
  • Showers and storms continue
  • Strong storms shifting through SE TX into Deep East TX
  • Best location for possible severe weather

Note that only light showers

will be possible in this area

Moderate Instability

Strong Instability

High Instability

hi res model wrf forecast radar instability5
Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability
  • 3 PM Forecast (Wed)
  • Showers and storms continue shifting east
  • Strong storms shifting through SE TX into Deep East TX
  • Best location for possible severe weather (12P-3P)

Note that only light showers

will be possible in this area

Moderate Instability

Strong Instability

High Instability

hi res model wrf forecast radar instability6
Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability
  • 6 PM Forecast (Wed)
  • Showers and storms continue shifting east
  • Strong storms shifting through Western LA
  • Best location for possible severe weather (3-6PM)

Note that only light showers

will be possible in this area

Moderate Instability

Strong Instability

High Instability

hi res model wrf forecast radar instability7
Hi Res Model (WRF)(forecast Radar/Instability
  • 9 PM Forecast (Wed)
  • Showers and storms continue shifting east
  • Strong storms shifting through Eastern LA
  • Best location for possible severe weather (6-9PM)

Note that only light showers

will be possible in this area

Moderate Instability

Strong Instability

High Instability

slide14

Computer Model Rainfall Forecast

(Hi Res WRF)

  • Heavier in some spots… especailly East TX
  • Shown as best/worst case
  • Trying to show heavy in convective areas
slide15

Official Rainfall Forecast

  • Heaviest in Central/East TX where mid-level front will be stalled tonight
summary
Summary

Tonight through Thu AM:

Complicated forecast due to moving warm front and surface low developing..tracking into area.

Likely that a line of storms develops ahead of the main cold front overnight into Wed AM…moves east during day.

Reduces overall rainfall amounts

Area along and south of I-20 forecast to have highest shear/instability…increasing severe threat

Greatest threats:

Damaging winds (along and south of warm front)

Tornadoes (along and south of warm front)

Hail (along and north of warm front)

Heavy rain threat confined to Tyler->Mt. Pleasant->De Queen

**If the front can move further north, tornado threat increases north of I-20 into NE TX/South AR.

National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

next conference call

NEXT CONFERENCE CALL:

Thursday 1/26 @ 10 AM

www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing

National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana