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SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME [6.1]. [ Sustainable Energy Systems ]. The Pan European NEEDS-TIMES model. Markus Blesl First CEEH Energy Externality Workshop Roskilde, Denmark , February 6, 2008. Objective of NEEDS.

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The pan european needs times model

SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME

[6.1]

[ Sustainable Energy Systems]

The Pan European NEEDS-TIMES model

Markus Blesl

First CEEH Energy Externality Workshop Roskilde, Denmark, February 6, 2008

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


Objective of needs
Objective of NEEDS

The ultimate objective of the NEEDS Integrated Project is to evaluate the full costs and benefits (i.e. direct + external) of energy policies and of future energy systems, both at the level of individual countries and for the enlarged EU as a whole.

From the scientific and technological viewpoint, this entails major advancements in the current state of knowledge in the following main areas of:

• Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of energy technologies

• Monetary valuation of externalities associated to energy production, transport, conversion and use

• Integration of LCA and externalities information into policy formulation and scenario building

• Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), which allows examining the robustness of the proposed technological solutions in view of stakeholder preferences.

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


Structure of needs
Structure of NEEDS

SOCIO-ECONOMIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS

+ INITIAL TECHNICAL DATA

(RS2a + input from Other Streams)

LIFE CYCLE

DATA

(RS1a)

EXTERNALITIES

(RS1b, RS1c)

TECHNOLOGY

DATABASE

(ALL STREAMS)

COHERENT ENERGY-TECHNOLOGY

& TRADE PATHWAYS (RS2a)

OTHER INDICATORS,

SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE, MCDA (RS2b)

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008

Source: Richard Loulou 3rd Integration Meeting


Objectives of the modeling part in needs
Objectives of the Modeling part in NEEDS

  • To generate via The Integrated MARKAL- EFOM System (TIMES) partial equilibrium technology rich economic models of each Member Stateand of the EU as a whole (Pan-European model), including the most important emissions, materials, and damage functions used by LCA and ExternE, in their long term development.

  • To compare scenarios that simulate various policy approaches (setting thresholds for CO2 emission, renewables penetration, etc.) using the key base data received form the other streams to calculate equilibrium quantities and prices.

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


Etsap

ETSAP

IEA (International Energy Agency)

Implementing Agreements

Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP)

Implementing Agreement

Implementing Agreement

Operating Agent

www.etsap.org

Outreach

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


The pan european needs times model

  • Methodology

  • Bottom-up Model

  • Perfect competition

  • Perfect foresight

  • Optimisation (LP)

Min/Max Objective function

s.t.

Equations, Constraints

Decision Variables <=> Solution

Input parameters

  • TOOLS

  • ANSWER, ABARE

  • VEDA, GERAD

  • HALOA, GERAD

  • Development

  • The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System

  • By ETSAP

  • Implementation in GAMS

  • Model generator

  • Applications (IER)

  • TIMES-BY

  • TIMES-GES

  • TIMES-D

  • TIMES-EE

  • TIMES-World

TIMES

  • Future Features

  • NLP (experience curves, macroeconomic linkage)

  • Stochastic Programming

  • MCP (Multi-agent model)

Features

  • Regions

  • Elastic demands

  • Vintaging

  • Inter-temporal

  • Load curve

  • Endogeneous technological learning

  • Discrete capacity expansion

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


Basic structure of energy system models

capacities

price

cost

Cost balance

Net

production-

value

Process energy

space heating

Area

Person

Light

Communication

Force

Personal-

kilometres

Tonne-

kilometres

Inland

production

Import

Coal

refining

Industry

Refinery

Demand values

Power plant

and

Grid

Commercial

Energy carrier prices,

Resources availability

Domestic

CHP

and

District Heat

Transport

Gas pipelines

Primary Energy

Emission

Energy flow

Demand

Emissions balance

End energy

Basic structure of energy system models

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


Characterization of the pan european times model
Characterization of the Pan-European TIMES model

  • 29 region model (EU 25 + Ro, No, CH, IS)

  • Energy system model

    • SUPPLY: reserves, resources, exploration and conversion

      Country specific renewable potential and availability (onshore wind, offshore wind, geothermal, biomass, biogas, hydro)

    • Electricity: public electricity plants, CHP plants and heating plants

    • Residential and Commercial: All end use technologies (space heating, water heating, space cooling and others)

    • Industry: Energy intensive industry (Iron and steel, aluminium copper ammonia and chlorine, cement, glass, lime, pulp and paper), other industries , autoproducer and boilers

    • Transport: Different transport modes (cars, buses, motorcycles, trucks, passenger trains, freight trains), aviation and navigation

  • Country specific differences for characterisation of new conversion and end-use technologies

  • Time horizon 2000-2050

  • GHG: CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 /Others pollutants: SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, PM2.5, PM10

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


The pan european needs times model

The modelling team of the country models

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


Electricity structure in the pan european model

RSDELC

INDELC

COMELC

ELCHIG

ELCHIGG

ELCMED

ELCLOW

TRAELC

...

EVTRANS_H-M

RSDELC00

EVTRANS_H-H

EVTRANS_M-L

~ grid cost medium

~ cost for distribution

voltage grid plus

according to grid

Generation

~ grid cost high

H-M transformer

~ grid cost low

tariffs of the certain

voltage grid

voltage grid plus

demand group

M-L transformer

Import

INDELC00

Export

COMELC00

TRAELC00

Pump Storage

Decentralized

~ modelling of pump

Generation

Generation LOW

storage process here

VOLTAGE

only scematic

Electricity structure in the PAN-European Model

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


The pan european times model linking the countries together by electricity exchange
The Pan-European TIMES model- Linking the countries together by electricity exchange

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


Scenario analysis the key policy cases in the needs project
Scenario analysis - The Key Policy Cases in the NEEDS Project

  • Specification of the Baseline case (BAU)

  • Post-Kyoto climate policy to stabilize CO2e concentrations at 440 ppmv (CO2)

  • Enhancement of endogenous energy resources, (constraining imports of fossil fuels to foster the use of renewables, efficiency standards and new nuclear)

  • Improve environmental quality by endogenizing externalities related to local air pollution ( i.e., w/o global externalities)

Today

+

SENTECH

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


Total co 2 emission in the eu 27
Total CO Project2 emission in the EU 27

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


Total final energy consumption eu 27
Total final energy consumption EU 27 Project

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


Total final energy consumption industry eu 27
Total final energy consumption industry EU 27 Project

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


Total final energy consumption transport eu27
Total final energy consumption transport EU27 Project

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


Total final energy consumption residential eu27
Total final energy consumption residential EU27 Project

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


Net electricity generation in twh
Net electricity generation in TWh Project

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


The pan european needs times model

Net electricity generation in TWh Project

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


Net electricity generation capacity in gw
Net electricity generation capacity in [GW] Project

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


The pan european needs times model

Net electricity generation capacity in [GW] Project

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


Net electricity generation capacity by technologies in gw
Net electricity generation capacity by technologies in [GW] Project

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


Total primary energy consumption eu
Total primary energy consumption Project EU

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


Integration of lca and external costs in the pan european times model

Net Project

production-

value

Process energy

space heating

Area

Person

Light

Communication

Force

Personal-

kilometres

Tonne-

kilometres

Inland

production

Import

Coal

refining

Industry

Refinery

Power plant

and

Grid

Commercial

Domestic

CHP

and

District Heat

Transport

Gas pipelines

Demand

End energy

Integration of LCA and External costs in the Pan-European TIMES model

Cost per pollutant

cost

Cost balance

capacities

price

Capacities

Emission

Demand values

Energy carrier prices,

Resources availability

Emission

Primary Energy

Energy flow

Emission

Emissions balance

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008


The pan european needs times model

Thank you for your attention ! Project

CEEH Workshop

Roskilde, February 6, 2008