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Study on future fuels for cargo vessels in the Baltic Sea. Nasif Rahman Laiva 2025 Espoo, 29.08.2013. Objectives. To analyze four non-conventional fuels considering Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) and Marine Gas Oil ( MGO ) combination as baseline properties Fossil fuels

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study on future fuels for cargo vessels in the baltic sea

Study on future fuels for cargo vessels in the Baltic Sea

Nasif Rahman

Laiva 2025

Espoo, 29.08.2013

objectives
Objectives
  • To analyze four non-conventional fuels considering Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) and Marine Gas Oil (MGO) combination as baseline properties
  • Fossil fuels
          • Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
          • Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)
  • Biofuels
          • Biodiesel (B100)
          • Bioethanol (E85)
  • Marine Gas Oil (MGO) as main fuel
  • To analyze the ability of these fuels to fulfill future (2025) environmental regulations on air emissions
  • To carry out a cost analysis based on the net present value (NPV) calculations of a case ship with the five fuel options

Laiva 2025

case study m s eira
Case study: m/s Eira
  • Ice Class IA Super: Baseline case
        • 14 nautical mile per hour (knots)
        • 75% maximum continuous rating (MCR) of the engines
  • Ice Class IA
        • 14 knots
        • 75% maximum continuous rating (MCR) of the engines
  • Ice Class IA Super slow steaming:
        • 11 nautical mile per hour (knots)
        • 50% maximum continuous rating (MCR) of the engines

Source: ESL Shipping Oy

Laiva 2025

energy efficiency design index eedi calculation for different fuels
Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) calculation for different fuels
  • EEDI =
  • The calculated EEDI is a theoretical measure of the CO2 mass emitted per unit of transport work (grams CO2 per ton nautical mile) for a particular ship design
  • Variation in carbon content and specific fuel consumption of fuels
  • Variation in engine’s power requirement for different Ice Class

Laiva 2025

energy efficiency design index eedi results
Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) results

Phase 0: starts from 2013

Phase 1: starts from 2015

Phase 2: starts from 2020

Phase 3: starts from 2025

Laiva 2025

nitrogen oxides nox and sulphur oxides sox emission results
Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and Sulphur Oxides (SOx) emission results
  • All main and auxiliary engines pass Tier III with LNG
  • With LPG and ethanol, the passing limits are Tier II
  • HFO and MGO pass Tier I
  • Biodiesel can only pass Tier I with slow steaming
  • All the studied fuel contain very low sulphur than HFO and MGO, they all can pass SECA 2015 regulation

Source: IMO MARPOL annex VI reg. 13

Laiva 2025

air emission assessment model results
Air emission assessment model results
  • Does not show much variations between Ice Class IA Super and Ice Class IA
  • Results are better in slow steaming case
  • LNG and then LPG give best results

Laiva 2025

net present value npv estimation variables
Net present value (NPV) estimation: variables
  • Up to 2025, biodiesel as main fuel would be the most expensive
  • After 2025, heavy fuel oil (HFO) as main fuel would be the most expensive
  • Investments cost other than machinery costs have kept constant for both cases

Laiva 2025

net present value npv estimation annual fuel cost
Net present value (NPV) estimation: Annual fuel cost
  • About two third cost with 11 knots speed than 14 knots
  • Ethanol is much cheaper but its consumption is high for same power output
  • As a result, cost with ethanol is similar with LNG and LPG

Laiva 2025

net present value npv estimation
Net present value (NPV) estimation
  • Slow steaming offers less NPV value for the ship for non-conventional fuels
  • Change in annual income with LNG/LPG for DWT/gross volume loss from 305 cubic meters net volume (119 ton) fuel tanks
  • In case with HFO and MGO, slow steaming provides better NPV because of their high fuel price in the future

Laiva 2025

conclusions
Conclusions
  • LNG would be the best fuel option considering air emission properties and cost analysis
  • Small difference in results in case of Ice Class IA
  • Much better results on air emission properties in case of slow steaming
  • Slow steaming must be decided based on cargo flow in the market
  • Whole lifecycle CO2 emission analysis needed for biodiesel

Laiva 2025

future challenges
Future Challenges
  • Cost reduction from less air emissions: Mainly on reduction of NOx and SOx emission
    • Port of Stockholm: up to 23%
    • Port of Mariehamn: up to 24%
    • Port of Rotterdam: up to 10%
  • CO2 trade: the EU scheme
      • The European Union Emission Trading Scheme: Cap and Trade Principal
      • 31 countries involved; 1,000 factories, power stations, and other installations with a net heat excess of 20 MW as of Jan 2013
      • Shipping not included (near future?)

Laiva 2025

slide15
Thank you

Laiva 2025

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