National Benefits of ambitious MRV System: Political Buy-In South Africa

1. National Benefits of ambitious MRV System: Political Buy-In South Africa Global NDC Conference : 12 -14 June 2019 Berlin, Germany Scandic Hotel

2. National Context • The National Climate Change Response Policy (NCCRP) and the National Development plan (NDP) presents a vision for an effective climate change response and the long term transition to an equitable and internationally competitive lower-carbon economy and society • Monitoring & Evaluation of climate change and what is seek to achieve is outlined in section 11 of the Policy • South Africa aims to comply with international reporting requirements by developing and implementing an M & E framework that supports compilation of BURs, NatComs and annual climate change reports • The reports are not only for complying with international requirements but also key in informing decision and policy making within the country • As part of SA’s reporting obligations under the UNFCCC - SA submits National GHG Inventory Reports, Biennial Update Reports & National Communications • Reports are subject to the technical analysis by the Team of Technical Experts (TTE) in accordance with the modalities and procedures contained in the annex to decision 20/CP.19.

3. SA International Reporting: • SA’s have to date submitted a total of 6 GHG inventories the UNFCCC as part of BURs and NCs (1990, 1994, 2000, 2000-2010, 2000-2012, 2000-2015) • South Africa has also developed and compiled 3 National Communications • South Africa has developed and compiled 3 BURs. 1st BUR was submitted with the 2000-2010 NIR, 2nd BUR was submitted with the 2000-2012 NIR and 3rd BUR has the summary of the 2000-2015 GHG emissions. The full NIR will be submitted before the end of June prior to the ICA process • BUR1 and BUR2 summary reports have been published on the UNFCCC website and the 2nd BUR is currently undergoing the FSV process and will be presented on 19 June 2019 during the FSV session at SB 50 in Bonn, Germany • Last published inventory is the 2000 – 2015 inventory and is reported in the 3rd BUR of South Africa submitted to the UNFCCC on 5 June 2019 • Draft 2000-2017 inventory has been compiled and will be submitted as part of the 4th BUR of South Africa

4. Institutional arrangements for South Africa’s GHG Inventory compilation • There were no legal mechanisms to formalize information flows through this institutional arrangement to ensure consistent and sustainable data input for the GHG inventory. This was addressed though the development of GHG reporting regulations and guidelines under the existing National Environmental Management Act: Air Quality (Act No. 39 of 2004, as amended) and the National GHG System described below. The National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reporting Regulations were published in April 2017, thereby officially launching the company level GHG reporting program in South Africa

5. Benefits of National MRV Systems: NIRs • The 3rd NIR was developed in 2009 , which reported South Africa’s emissions for the year 2000. It was useful for South Africa’s planning as it was the basis for the development of Long Term which informed the projections of South Africa’s emissions in a Peak, Plateau and Decline (PPD) Range. The PPD scenario based on the MPA of planned Policies and Measures including those under implementation informed south Africa’s NDC commitment • The 4th NIR was developed in 2012 and included the 2000-2010 time series. It was developed internally within the Department of environmental Affairs using the 2006 IPCC guidelines. It was the basis for the Mitigation Potential Analysis and was also instrumental in the design of the Carbon Tax Accounting Framework). The MPA informed South Africa’s NDC mitigation commitment. • South Africa’s mitigation component of its NDC moves from a “deviation from business-as-usual” form of commitment and takes the form of a peak, plateau and decline GHG emissions trajectory range. South Africa’s emissions by 2025 and 2030 will be in a range between 398 and 614 Mt CO2–eq, as defined in national policy. This is the benchmark against which the efficacy of mitigation actions will be measured. • The 5th NIR which included the 2000-2012 time series was published in 2017 and was the basis for allocation of Carbon Budgets, Pollution Prevention Plans and Carbon Sinks Atlas)

6. Benefits of National MRV Systems: NIRs South Africa’s aggregated gross GHG emissions (i.e. excluding FOLU) were 439 238 Gg CO2e in 2000 and these increased by 101 616 Gg CO2e (or 23.1%) by 2015 .South Africa’s aggregated net GHG emissions, including Forestry and Other Land Uses (FOLU), were 426 214 003 Gg CO2e in 2000 and these increased to 512 383 Gg CO2e by 2015 . Between 2000 and 2015 the average annual growth was 1.43 %, with the Energy sector being the main contributor to this increase.

7. Benefits of National MRV Systems: NatComs • The INC covered both the 1990 and 1994 national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories using 1996 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines. The uncertainty analysis for these GHG inventories was quite high due to a lot of data gaps at the time. South Africa also managed to provide an outline of mitigation Policies and Measures (PAMs) but no analysis on their impacts in terms of reducing GHG emissions was done. South Africa only managed to conduct future forecast of demands in terms of energy, transport, water, health, mining, agriculture and forestry sectors as well as the possible socio-economic impacts. Some of the mitigation and adaptation PAMs were also outlined including possible mitigation and adaptation responses. The INC signalled the need and informed the development of the NCCRP • South Africa published and submitted its Second National Communication (SNC) to the UNFCCC in 2011 during the 17th Conference Parties (COP 17) which was held in Durban South Africa. The SNC included the 2000 GHG Inventory. The GHG inventory did not include any time series as compared to the TNC, which covers the 2000-2012 GHG inventory. Both GHG inventories were developed using the 2006 IPCC guideline resulting in improved accuracies in the GHG inventories. In relation to mitigation, the progress achieved since the SNC is significant. The SNC only covered some information on some of the key Policies and Measures in South Africa both planned and implemented to drive climate change. The SNC informed South Africa’s National Climate Change response Policy • South Africa’s TNC (August 2018) included medium and long term climate projections as well as V & A assessment for the priority sectors assessment which informed the development of the National Adaptation Strategy. The NAS of South Africa is currently undergoing a public consultation process after which it will be tabled for cabinet approval.

8. Benefits of National MRV Systems: BURs BUR-1 First attempt at quantifying impact of mitigation measures and tracking progress towards the PPD scenario. South Africa did not manage to quantify the impact of most of the actions since the M & E framework was still being conceptualised, however made significant progress towards finalising the framework and implementing it.

9. Benefits of National MRV Systems: BURs BUR-2 South Africa quantified the overall impact of its mitigation actions and was able to track progress towards achieving the PPD emissions trajectory range which has also formed South Africa’s mitigation commitment in the NDC. South Africa implemented mitigation actions contributed to estimated cumulative GHG emission reductions of 593.4 Mt CO2 eq in the period 2000–2014, with the National Energy Efficiency Strategy response measure being responsible for most of the emission reductions.

10. Benefits of National MRV Systems: BUR-3 Through the National Climate Change Response Monitoring and Evaluation System (M&E System), South Africa is continuously striving to quantify the effects of mitigation policies, strategies and actions implemented in the country. The most impact is from the energy sector, especially the NEES actions. The annual greenhouse gas emission reductions were estimated at 96 MtCO2e/year, 101 MtCO2e/year, 112 MtCO2e/year and 119 Mt CO2e/year for 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 respectively

11. Benefits of National MRV Systems Through the Political Buy-in, South Africa’s MRV system has been key in informing national decision making and policy development Decision making in SA on climate change has been informed by data and evidence gathered through the MRV systems In addition, South Africa has received and secured climate finance to implement its climate responses actions as well as CBN as communicated in the international climate change reports. SA tracking of NDC is already underway through tracking our GHG emissions as well as impact of mitigation actions as reported in the BURs It is against such impact analysis that south Africa’s NDC will be updated Benefits of MRV systems go beyond compliance with international reporting obligations Reporting regularly has also allowed SA to improve with time

12. Sandra Motshwanedi Email: SMotshwanedi@environment.gov.zaClimate Change; Air Quality and Sustainable Development International Reporting on Climate Change: BURs & NCs, CBIT, ETF