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RESearch into the Public Perception Of Nuclear Design RESPPOND

RESearch into the Public Perception Of Nuclear Design RESPPOND. Martin J. Goodfellow 1 Hugo R. Williams 2 Adisa Azapagic 3.

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RESearch into the Public Perception Of Nuclear Design RESPPOND

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  1. RESearch into the Public Perception Of Nuclear DesignRESPPOND Martin J. Goodfellow1 Hugo R. Williams2 Adisa Azapagic3 1 Research Engineer, The University of Manchester/Rolls-Royce plc. Correspondence address: Rolls-Royce plc, SINA-CNB-1, PO Box 31, Derby DE24 8BJ (Martin.Goodfellow@postgrad.manchester.ac.uk, 01332 2 60492) 2 Rolls-Royce plc, SINA-CNB-1, PO Box 31, Derby DE24 8BJ 3 The University of Manchester, CEAS, The Mill, Sackville Street, Manchester, M13 9PL

  2. Overview • The current perception of nuclear power in brief • Theoretical explanations and limitations • Opportunities for future work and RESPPOND

  3. Background – Nuclear Renaissance • New nuclear build is happening now • Construction in Finland, China, Korea… • US President Obama loan guarantees to Southern Company (USA) – Feb 2010 • Around the world nuclear new build activity is growing • New build is on the agenda for current nuclear nations: UK, France, USA, Japan, India, Brazil, Canada… • Also for non-nuclear nations: UAE, Italy, Poland, Iran, Egypt, Australia….

  4. The public still isn’t convinced… • Despite low level of calculated risk, perceived risk is still high Eurobarometer, 2007

  5. Recent UK perception of nuclear • Recent “surge”, due to climate change?… Ipsos MORI, 2008

  6. Why does this matter? • Additionally, reputational losses can be incurred with long lasting ramifications • Negative public perceptions can become manifest • Within planning applications • In political policy • Through direct action • All of the above can delay construction of plants; a costly experience

  7. Why is there a disparity? • Expertly calculated risk levels are based on probabilistic risk analysis • However, ~5 million years of evolution means your brain has a very different way of judging risk: forming a view of the perceived risk • Despite certain failings, our in-built method for risk assessment is relatively successful and robust • We weren’t all eaten by lions, bears etc. • We do a reasonable job of surviving commuting

  8. Current Theory • Currently, two leading attempts to explain human risk perception • Psychometric Paradigm works on the basis that we all evaluate risks against multiple scales • Volition, Immediacy, Clarity, Understanding, Circumvention, Novelty, Scope, Dread, Severity, (and Origin) • Cultural Theory states that we evaluate risk based on cultural biases that are imprinted on us depending on our beliefs, background and socio-cultural networks • Neither theory is complete, further work is ongoing

  9. Additional factors? • Numerous other factors are involved • Stigma • Trust • Communication • Anchoring, availability (and other heuristics) • Demographics • In general, nuclear risk is not even on the average person’s “radar” • Only key “signal events” change this • Chernobyl, Three Mile Island • Therefore asking for expressed preferences changes the framing of the issue

  10. Overcoming negative perception • Risk communication seeks to deal with this via predominantly reactive means • Public engagement • Education • Via the media • This is confined within the bounds of what is being designed, manufactured and commissioned • RESPPOND seeks to understand what changes to perception occur following specific changes to design or procedure

  11. RESPPOND • Previous work in this area is limited • High level view only • Some “leaps of faith” present in aligning perceptual shifts and design changes • No clear, concise or robust methodology exists for carrying out such an exercise • This research requires the combination of • Technical engineering knowledge • Theoretical risk perception research • Empirical observations

  12. RESPPOND • This lack of previous work is a gap that provides an opportunity; some form of framework is required to integrate all the necessary information • This framework must: • Incorporate information from many different engineering and scientific disciplines • Accept quantitative and qualitative inputs • Accept information from both revealed (observed) and expressed preference studies • Structure this information in a clear, logical and unbiased fashion

  13. RESPPOND • If such a framework is created, it should be possible to understand the consequences on perception caused by specific design or procedure changes • Therefore, new plants could be designed (or existing plants modified) so as to reduce the potential for negative perception • This has the potential to reduce or remove a significant barrier to new nuclear build

  14. Example case – Appearance

  15. Example case – Appearance

  16. Example case – Alternatives… • Appearance is just one of many aspects that might be studied

  17. Acknowledgements • Thanks to • EPSRC and Rolls-Royce for funding via Nuclear Engineering Doctorate Centre (Manchester) • Several anonymous reviewers for their input

  18. Any Questions?

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