Decisions. Chapter 10 Tom Miller Shannon Harr Camille Pane, MD Chris Maher Lauren O’Connor. Agenda. Overview of Decisions Rational Decision Models Cost Benefit Risk Benefit Decision Analysis Polis Method Significance of Language. Decisions.
Camille Pane, MD
Alternative courses of action
Final consequences to be evaluated
Uncertain event (federal funding
might come through, or it might not)
Point of indifference (worth “.65” to the mayor)
1 is assigned to the best outcome (getting the subway)
0 is assigned the worst outcome (getting nothing at all)
To understand the function of the decision model in the polis, we can compare the steps and their functions with the basic theoretical model.
Drunk drivers, uncrashworthy cars, poorly designed roads, beverage industries, etc…
A) Conventional vaccine, saves 200 people
B) Experimental vaccine, 1/3 chance 600 saved but 2/3 chance none saved
You are the surgeon general of the United States. Which would you choose?
C) Conventional vaccine, past experience says will result in 400 deaths
D) Experimental vaccine, 1/3 chance no one will die and 2/3 chance 600 will die
Which of these would you choose?
So why do we do it?
Disproving Newton’s Third Law of Motion
Highly Cost Effective
Words and images used to portray costs and benefits very important in ultimate decision