The Chan g e Tsunami Jobs Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security

1. Tom Peters’ Re-Imagine!Business Excellence in a Disruptive AgeAn Introduction to Crazy Times03.12.2004

2. The Change TsunamiJobs TechnologyGlobalizationWar, Warfighting & Security

3. JobsNew TechnologyGlobalization War, Warfighting & Security

4. The Perfect (Jobs) StormOff-shoringWC AutomationReluctance to hire

5. “Behind Surging Productivity: The Service Sector Delivers. Firms Once Thought Immune to Boosting Worker Output Are Now Big Part of the Trend”—Headline/WSJ/11.03

6. “As Economy Gains, Outsourcing Surges”—Headline/Boston Globe/11.03

7. “In a global economy, the government cannot give anybody a guaranteed success story, but you can give people the tools to make the most of their own lives.”—WJC, from Philip Bobbitt, The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace, and the Course of History

8. “14MILLION service jobs are in danger of being shipped overseas”—The Dobbs Report/USN&WR/11.03/re new UCB study

9. 1 in 10 tech jobs headed offshore by end of 2004.Source: Gartner Group/06.03

10. “Is Your Job Going Abroad?”—Time/Cover/03.04

11. “Income Confers No Immunity as Jobs Migrate”—Headline/USA Today/02.04

12. “A new suspect emerges in hunt for missing U.S. jobs”—Headline/FT/02.17.04/on small business off-shoring

13. “One Singaporean workercosts as much as …3 … in Malaysia 8 … in Thailand 13 … in China 18 … in India.”Source: The Straits Times/08.18.03

14. “Thaksinomics” (after Taksin Shinawatra, PM)/ “Bangkok Fashion City”/ “managed asset reflation” (add to brand value of Thai textiles by demonstrating flair and design excellence)Source: The Straits Times/03.04.2004

15. “The proper role of a healthily functioning economy is to destroy jobs and to put labor to use elsewhere. Despite this truth, layoffs and firings will always sting, as if the invisible hand of free enterprise has slapped workers in the face.” —Joseph Schumpeter

16. --79% of U.S. jobs in “structurally changed professions” (“permanently eliminated jobs”)(40K of 160K U.S. IBM)--”As we trade we release more labor from the service sector because our highly skilled and highly paid workers lose their competitive advantage. So we go to the next big thing. We specialize in innovation. We develop new products and start new industries.” (Erica Groshen, labor economist Fed of NY)Source: CNN/Money/01.07.2004

17. “There is no job that is America’s God-given right anymore.”—Carly Fiorina/ HP/ 01.08.2004

18. “Either we modernize or we will be modernized by the unremitting force of the markets.”—Gerhard Schroeder

19. “WHAT ARE PEOPLE GOING TO DO WITH THEMSELVES?”—Headline/ Fortune/ 11.03 (“We should finally admit that we do not and cannot know, and regard that fact with serenity rather than anxiety.”)

20. “Uncertainty is the only thing to be sure of.”—Anthony Muh,head of investment in Asia, Citigroup Asset Management“If you don’t like change, you’re going to like irrelevance even less.”—General Eric Shinseki, Chief of Staff, U. S. Army

21. “A bureaucrat is an expensive microchip.”Dan Sullivan, consultant and executive coach

22. E.g. …Jeff Immelt: 75% of “admin, back room, finance” “digitalized” in 3 years.Source: BW (01.28.02)

23. “Unless mankind redesigns itself by changing our DNA through altering our genetic makeup, computer-generated robots will take over the world.”– Stephen Hawking, in the German magazine Focus

24. “What strategic motto will dominate this transition from nation-state to market-state? If the slogan that animated the liberal, parliamentary nation-states was ‘make the world safe for democracy,’ what will the forthcoming motto be? Perhaps ‘making the world available,’ which is to say creating new worlds of choice and protecting the autonomy of persons to choose.”—Philip Bobbitt, The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace, and the Course of History

25. “better material welfare” vs. “maximize the opportunity of its people”—Philip Bobbitt, The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace, and the Course of History

26. JobsTechnologyGlobalization War, Warfighting & Security

27. <1000A.D.: paradigm shift: 1000s of years1000: 100 years for paradigm shift1800s: > prior 900 years1900s: 1st 20 years > 1800s2000: 10 years for paradigm shift21st century: 1000Xtech change than 20th century (“the ‘Singularity,’ a merger between humans and computers that is so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history”)Ray Kurzweil

28. Vernor Vinge/Mr. Singularity“The transition time from human history to post-human singularity time, Vinge thinks, will be astonishingly short—maybe one hundred hours from the first moment of computer self-awareness to computer world conquest.”—Esquire/12.2002

29. “We found that the pace of development from one societal type to another is accelerating. The agricultural society originated 10,000 years ago, the industrial society between 200 and 100 years ago, the information-based society 20 years ago.”—Rolf Jensen/The Dream Society: How the Coming Shift from Information to Imagination Will Transform Your Business

30. “I genuinely believe we are living through the greatest intellectual moment in history.”Matt Ridley, Genome

31. “In 25 years, you’ll probably be able to get the sum total of all human knowledge on a personal device.”Greg Blonder, VC [was Chief Technical Adviser for Corporate Strategy @ AT&T] [Barron’s 11.13.2000]

32. “A California biotechnology company has put the entire sequence of the human genome on a single chip, allowing researchers to conduct on the complex relationships between the 30,000 genes that make up a human being in a single experiment.”—Page 3, Financial Times/10.03.2003

33. Sequenom/David Ewing Duncan/Wired11.02“Sequenom has industrialized the SNP [single nucleotide polymorphisms] identification process.” “This, I’m told, is the first time a healthy human has ever been screened for the full gamut of genetic-disease markers.” “On the horizon: multi-disease gene kits, available at Wal*Mart, as easy to use as home-pregnancy tests.” “You can’t look at humanity separate from machines; we’re so intertwined we’re almost the same species, and the difference is getting smaller.”

34. “Help! There’s nobody in the cockpit. In the future, will the airlines no longer need pilots?”Grumman Global Hawk/ 24 hours/ Edwards to South AustraliaSource: The Economist/12.21.2002

35. “There’s going to be a fundamental change in the global economy unlike anything we have hadsince the cavemen began bartering.”Arnold Baker, Chief Economist, Sandia National Laboratories

36. “UPS used to be a trucking company with technology. Now it’s a technology company with trucks.”—Forbes, upon naming UPS “Company of the Year” in Y2000

37. JobsTechnologyGlobalization War, Warfighting & Security

38. “Historically, smart people have always turned to where the money was. Today, money is turning to where the smart people are.” —FT/06.03.03

39. “The World Must Learn to Live with a Wide-awake China”—Headline/FT/11.03

40. “Asia’s rise is the economic event of our age. Should it proceed as it has over the last few decades, it will bring the two centuries of global domination by Europe and, subsequently, its giant North American offshoot to an end.” —Financial Times (09.22.2003)

41. “The world has arrived at a rare strategic inflection point where nearly half its population—living in China, India and Russia—have been integrated into the global market economy, many of them highly educated workers, who can do just about any job in the world. We’re talking about three billion people.”—Craig Barrett/Intel/01.08.2004

42. Cost of a Programmer, per IBM …China: $12.50 per hourUSA: $56 per hourSource: WSJ/01.19.2004

43. China Roars!

44. “China has become a manufacturing hub for the rest of the world in low-end labor-intensive goods—and the rest of the world is becoming a manufacturing hub for China in high-end, capital-intensive goods. … China may be a threat to certain parts of the global supply chain that rely on low-cost labor, but it represents an even greater opportunity via production-efficiency gains, economic welfare gains and long-term dynamic potential. Its booming exports are more than matched by booming industrial imports and foreign investment opportunities. It has become the new engine of global growth.”Source: Glen Hodgson & Mark Worrall/Export Development Canada, in “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

45. 1990-2003: Exports 8X ($380B); 6% global exports 2003 vs. 3.9% 2000; 16% of Total Global Growth in 2002.Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

46. 1998-2003: 45,000,000 layoffs in state sector; offset by $450B in foreign investment; foreign companies account for 50+% of exports vs. 31% in Mexico, 15% in Korea.Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

47. 50% of output from private firms, 37% from state-owned firms; 80% of workforce (incl. rural) now in private employ.Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

48. Population growth = 1%; two-thirds of housing privately owned, 90% of urban Chinese own a home (vs. 61% in Japan)Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

49. 200 cities with >1,000,000 population.Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

50. 200,000,000 unemployed; must create 20,000,000 jobs per year to offset layoffs; 400,000,000 elderly Chinese by 2030 (currently no pension funds).Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003