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Economic of Climate change adaptation among Sweet Potato producers In Uganda. John Ilukor, Bernard Bashaasha, Fred Bagamba 2011 February 26 th. Introduction.
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John Ilukor, Bernard Bashaasha, Fred Bagamba
2011 February 26th
Uganda’s vulnerability can be clearly seen based on macro level indicators
The affects on agriculture in Uganda are experienced in two ways;
Temperature and rainfall changes influences out break of pest and diseases in sweet potato.
Coordinated Disciplinary Research
Communicate results to stakeholders
Modeling process: Minimum data Tradeoff Analysis Model (MD-TOA Model)
A participatory process, not a model
MD approach: use available data to estimate mean and variance of
Most systems involve multiple activities (crops, livestock). 12 and 22 depend on variances and covariance's of returns to each activity. In the MD model, we assume all correlations between activities within system 1 are equal (1), and make the same assumption for system 2 (2).
Adaptation mechanism Cont
Note: 1) Farmers noted that only those with money and information can acquire some of technologies like resistant varieties
2) If provided under govt (NAADS), gainers are the politically powerful and the rich, even when the target is the poor.
Adoption rate of planting pest and disease resistant varieties that are virus free is 65% without compensation
57% of the households would plant resistant varieties without compensation.
To raise adoption level by 20% (from 65% to 85% and 57% to 80%), farmers should be compensated by about 250,000 Uganda shillings per hectare ($110)
These results indicate that farmers are rational because they do not adopt the technology as long as benefits do not exceed the costs.
63.8% will adopt virus free planting material without subsidy
65% adopt planting material planting material if subsidy is provided
Results show small difference in adoption rates implying that a sweet potato vine subsidy would achieve little in terms of promoting the adoption of pest and disease resistant virus free planting materials.
Subsidization in order to increase adoption climate change adaptation strategies is not sustainable
The adoption rate on flat land is 65.3%
The adoption rate on moderate slopes is 60.7%
The adoption rate on the steep slopes is 64.4%
The production of sweet potatoes under new improved sweet potato technologies varies with the slope agro-ecological zones
Variations in adoption is depends on Competing uses and opportunity cost of allocating land to new technology
The adoption potential for those sweet potato farmers with endowed with land (better off) is 65.4% whereas it is 53.85% for those farmers less endowed with land (worse off).
This result implies that those farmers endowed with land have a stronger resource base and better capacity to bear the risks associated with the new sweet potato technology
while those farmers less endowed with land tend to be risk averse and is hence hesitant to take chances with the new sweet potato technology.